All of joecode's Comments + Replies

joecode00

Rather ironic that a site dedicated to rationality should depend to a large extent on, from what I can tell, is an irrational impulse to vote, no?

After all, what is the utility of voting, unless it is believed that everyone will act in the same way---but group behavior is not something you can control.

I suppose it could be useful to remind yourself of the more interesting comments and commenters, at least, as you suggest.

Oh my, in a fit of irrationality, I just voted up your comment.

joecode10

I've come around to the majority viewpoint on the alien/Omega problem. It seems to be easier to think about when you pin it down a bit more mathematically.

Let's suppose the alien determines the probability of me one-boxing is p. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume he then puts the 1M into one of the boxes with this probability p. (In theory he could do it whenever p exceeded some thresh-hold, but this just complicates the math.)

Therefore, once I encounter the situation, there are two possible states:

a) with probability p there is 1M in one box, and 1k... (read more)