All of Joel Chan's Comments + Replies

Many have probably seen the threads (e.g., here and here, and this Medium post by Yishan Wong) about how massively scaled up testing is the key to threading the needle between economic collapse (long-term suppression tactics) and unacceptably high mortality (mitigation only, or worse, doing nothing). Aggressive and scaled up testing infrastructure is the key enabler for contact tracing, which appears to be the cornerstone of the South Korea model, which notably does not rely on draconian suppression tactics like lockdown, and they are currently the only ot... (read more)

Read the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report tonight. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The numbers are quite starkly grim, based on an epidemiological simulation model. They conclude that mitigation strategies (only isolating symptomatic people, social distancing only at-risk people) will at best reduce the load on the healthcare system to "only" 8x current surge capacity in UK/US, leading to estimated 1.1M deaths from COVID-19 al... (read more)

3Vaniver
My understanding is that the treatment requires significant monitoring and skill; the ventilation is often invasive (they have to get the tube into your lung, rather than just into your mouth). But for a while people have been suggesting compartmentalizing the medical system further. If you just want someone to be a 'ventilator nurse', able to intubate a patient and then manage a ventilator for that patient, could you do that with a 30-day training program? Seems likely and worthwhile, but will require some sort of emergency legislation to authorize in most places, and some rapid development of curricula and testing. Similarly, expanding production runs into legal issues. You may have heard about the volunteers who 3D printed ICU valves; they asked the company for blueprints, and the company threatened to sue for the IP violation. You might also have heard about the patent troll who sued the makers of a COVID19 test for infringement; they dropped the case once it was public that the use was a COVID19 test. It seems like a potentially sensible government action here is to nationalize (or otherwise force licensing) of technology that's useful in a disaster, with the government paying for the IP after-the-fact based on actual usage out of the overall disaster response fund. But in general, our 'peacetime' standards for medical devices are very high. If you want to take your toaster factory (or w/e) and start spitting out ventilators instead, there's a lengthy approval process because this is complicated stuff with many ways things can go wrong. When the alternative is nothing, it's probably good to have rush jobs available, but there's nothing in place (that I'm aware of) to allow this sort of rapid ramping.