Max is clearly a highly intelligent person, who's highly respected with a great track record. I believe we all should be taking his arguments seriously and discussing how we can create better outcomes through action, rather than focusing our intellects on breaking apart his logic and trying to convince ourselves that everything is fine.
Max has a great track record as a hedgehog. I'm not aware of him having any superforcasting credentials or expertise that's relevant to predicting Russian politics. His arguments deserve to be taken seriously but there's no reason to unquestioningly accept them.
Max is clearly a highly intelligent person, who's highly respected with a great track record. I believe we all should be taking his arguments seriously and discussing how we can create better outcomes through action, rather than focusing our intellects on breaking apart his logic and trying to convince ourselves that everything is fine.