All of John Wiseman's Comments + Replies

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yLFyoYhbhDYtuQWjm/probability-of-death-by-suicide-by-a-26-year-old

Read the 100 page complaint. He came up with OpenAI as a non-profit for the benefit of humanity. Altman and Brockman stole the idea, name and founding principles from him, and rushed to announce an identical effort before Google Research backed his OpenAI. The point: The idea for OpenAI and the founding principles to operate as a non-profit for the benefit of humanity came through theft. It wasn't Altman or Brockman's idea to begin with. So it is not surprising that they betrayed the mission. The idea was powerful because it was a way to recruit people and... (read more)

Found a link to the 100-page lawsuit of Guy Ravine vs Sam Altman and Greg Brockman here: https://guyravine.com/ 

They also filed a narrower complaint: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.416410/gov.uscourts.cand.416410.103.0.pdf 

John Wiseman*11-12

No one has picked up the true origin of OpenAI yet. If you dig in to it, you will see some revealing declarations and emails. The whole idea for a non-profit open AI organization and the commitment to share the benefits with humanity by the name of Open AI came through theft. 

(1) Bloomberg tells part of the story: https://archive.ph/1wEOX  

(2) The 100-page lawsuit of Guy Ravine vs Sam Altman and Greg Brockman tells more of the story (link from here): https://guyravine.com/ 

(3) They also filed a narrower complaint: https://storage.courtlisten... (read more)

-4Bubber Ducky
Ravine’s story is depressing. He is blind to his own lies at this point. He is blatantly patent trolling. He wants to be famous, he wants to be important, he has made no effort to utilize open.ai beyond fabricating screenshots for the USPTO and siphoning users from Openai.com. He didn’t get his idea stolen, he just picked a good name.
2John Wiseman
Found a link to the 100-page lawsuit of Guy Ravine vs Sam Altman and Greg Brockman here: https://guyravine.com/  They also filed a narrower complaint: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.416410/gov.uscourts.cand.416410.103.0.pdf 
5Seth Herd
Rings true. I'm not sure it pushes me much on the ethics of OpenAI; somebody else had a good idea for a philosophy and a name to push for AI in a certain (maybe dumb) direction; they recognized it as a good idea and appropriated it for their own similar project. Should they have used a more different name? Probably. Should they have used a more different philosophical argument? No. Should they have brought Guy Ravine on board? Probably not; his vision for how the thing would actually go was very different from theirs, and none of his skills were really that relevant. He'd have been in arguments with them from the start. Is this the right way for industry to work? Nope. But nobody knows how to properly give credit for good but broad ideas. None of this is to endorse anything or anyone related to OpenAI, just to say it's pretty standard practice.

Ted and I agreed on a 40:1 bet where I take RatsWrongAboutUAP's side. The term will expire on Aug 2 2028. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.

1Ted Sanders
Confirmed.

Carl and I have ultimately agreed to a 29:1 bet on the combined amount. The term will expire on July 25 2028 and may be extended by no more than 2 days upon reasonable request at Carl's sole discretion. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.

2CarlShulman
+1

Eliezer, I'm offering you double the odds at 75:1, and would put up to $50k against your corresponding amount. If the UFO phenomenon is real,  p(doom) may be much lower than you think, and in this view you'd probably be happy to pay it out.

1Shayne O'Neill
Unless, of course, those UAPs turn up, and don't have biological organisms in them, in which case we'd have the possibility that another civilization developed AI and it went poorly. ...or it is biological and we end up in a situation like 3 body problem/killing-star where the saucer fiends decide to gank us because humans are kinda violent and too dangerous to keep around.  All those super-intelligence as danger arguments also apply to biological super intelligences too. But most likely:  There are no damn UFOs and the laws of physics and their big ugly light speed prohibition still holds.

To clarify, I would send the $5k now.

I could offer $5k against your $185k, Carl. If you're interested, DM me. Same odds as a European Roulette, albeit with a much delayed payment.

1Ted Sanders
I'd take the same bet on even better terms, if you're willing. My $200k against your $5k.
5CarlShulman
We've agreed to make a 25:1 bet on this. John will put the hash of the bet amount/terms below.
1John Wiseman
To clarify, I would send the $5k now.

Willing to bet against Eliezer 100:1.  Up to $50k available for grabs.  If others are also interested in the bet, please contact me.