If there was ever a Popperian refutation of the econometric/quant modelling of human behaviour we are surely living through that now.
No matter how many people know that water is H2O, it will not affect the fact. Once we have people telling us they can plug in probabilities for human actions, we have the start of monumental folly.
Every wise investor understands what Soros calls reflexivity. There is a role for math clearly but I find this post obsession about what to me seem fairly dull objections to the Austrian school miss their larger picture which seems... (read more)
If there was ever a Popperian refutation of the econometric/quant modelling of human behaviour we are surely living through that now.
No matter how many people know that water is H2O, it will not affect the fact. Once we have people telling us they can plug in probabilities for human actions, we have the start of monumental folly.
Every wise investor understands what Soros calls reflexivity. There is a role for math clearly but I find this post obsession about what to me seem fairly dull objections to the Austrian school miss their larger picture which seems... (read more)