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All of Jonny Spicer's Comments + Replies

Evaluating “What 2026 Looks Like” So Far

That's a much better source, I've updated the spreadsheet accordingly, thanks!

Whose track record of AI predictions would you like to see evaluated?

That's good to know - transcripts from Dwarkesh's podcast are one of the things I'd be most excited about evaluating too and agreed the one with Leopold seems like a great one to start with.

OpenAI’s cybersecurity is probably regulated by NIS Regulations

Jonny Spicer5mo10

Provide an online search engine, an online marketplace, and a cloud computing service;

Should this be "Provide an online search engine, an online marketplace, or a cloud computing service;"?

1Adam Jones5mo

It should! Fixed, thank you :)

Concrete benefits of making predictions

Jonny Spicer6mo40

I think in many cases this is a feature rather than a bug, I'd be curious as to whether you had an example of a time when having made the prediction would be deleterious to realising the desired outcome? Assuming as Adam says that you're more interested in the outcome than the prediction being accurate.

2cubefox6mo

Assigning a low probability that I will do a task in time is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because the expected utility (probability times utility) is low, the motivation to do the task decreases. Ideally I would never assign probabilities to acts when choosing what to do, and only compare their utilities.

Rashomon - A newsbetting site

Jonny Spicer6mo70

This is a cool idea, good work putting the site together! I noticed some of the articles reference their publisher e.g. the one about Olivia Nuzzi includes "support HuffPost", maybe there's some way you could scrub these?

1ideasthete6mo

Thanks for checking it out Jonny! And yes, that is an issue I've noticed as well. I do have a filter to try to remove identifying info in the article but it's pretty spotty. This is one of the things I'd like to improve if I had time and money. But cheers! Appreciate the insight