That doesn't look right--if she just flipped H, then THT is also eliminated. So the renormalization should be:
HH: 1/2
HT: 0
THH: 1/4
THT: 0
TTH: 1/4
TTT: 0
Which means the coin doesn't actually change anything.
Took it. Comments:
Hopefully you have a way to filter out accidental duplicates (i.e. a hidden random ID field or some such), because I submitted the form by accident several times while filling it out. (I was doing it from my phone, and basically any slightly missed touch on the UI resulted in accidental submission).
Multiple choice questions should always have a "none" option of some kind, because once you select a radio button option there's no way to deselect it. Most of them did but not all.
I answered "God" with a significant p
Your "dimensionless" example isn't dimensionless; the dimensions are units of (satandate - whalefire).
You only get something like a reynolds number when the units cancel out, so you're left with a pure ratio that tells you something real about your problem. Here you aren't cancelling out any units, you're just neglecting to write them down, and scaling things so that outcomes of interest happen to land at 0 and 1. Expecting special insight to come out of that operation is numerology.
Great article other than that, though. I hadn't seen this quote ...
Hi all, I'm Jeff.
I've started mentally rewarding myself with a happy thought and a smile when I catch myself starting a bad habit ("Hey! I noticed!") instead of castigating myself ("Doh! I'm doing it again!"). Seems to work so far; we'll see how it goes.
I started using the Pomodoro technique today (pick a task, work on it for 25 minutes, break for 5, repeat). I'll had to adjust it somewhat to deal with interruptions during the day, but that wasn't too hard: when I get done with the interruption, I just have less time before the next bre...
During-meetup report: is the meetup still on? Brandon and his sign aren't here, and I don't see a likely group. The waitress had no idea who I was asking about.
Two different baby showers, though. I could join one of those instead.
Update: located one other LWer. We talked about the sequences and whatnot for an hour; then I had to go. On my way out discovered the table with five more folks.
Lesson for next meetup: bigger sign.
I don't see how this differs at all from Searle's Chinese room.
The "puzzle" is created by the mental picture we form in our heads when hearing the description. For Searle's room, it's a clerk in a room full of tiles, shuffling them between boxes; for yours, it's a person sitting at a desk scratching on paper. Since the consciousness isn't that of the human in the room, where is it? Surely not in a few scraps of paper.
But plug in the reality for how complex such simulations would actually have to be, if they were to actually simulate a human brain...
One of the most popular such ideas is to replicate the brain by copying the neurons and seeing what happens. For example, IBM's Blue Brain project hopes to create an entire human brain by modeling it neuron for neuron, without really understanding why brains work or why neurons do what they do.
No, the Blue Brain project (no longer affiliated with IBM, AFAIK) hopes to simulate neurons to test our understanding of how brains and neurons work, and to gain more such understanding.
If you can simulate brain tissue well enough that you're reproducing the actu...
Where in this system would you place a thorough and accurate, but superficial model that described the phenomenon? If I've made a lot of observations, collected a lot of data, and fit very good curves to it, I can do a pretty good job of predicting what's going to happen--probably better than you, in a lot of cases, if you're constrained by model that reflects a true understanding of what's going on inside.
If we're trying to predict where a baseball will land, I'm going to do better with my practiced curve-fitting than you are with your deep understanding ...
Ah, I misunderstood the comment. I just assumed that Gallo was in on it, and the claim was that customers of Gallo failing to complain constituted evidence of wine tasting's crockitude.
If Gallo's wine experts really did get taken in, then yes, that's pretty strong evidence. And being the largest winery, I'm sure they have many experts checking their wines regularly--too many to realistically be "in" on such a scam.
So you've convinced me. Wine tasting is a crock.
If "top winery" means "largest winery", as it does in this story, I don't see how it says anything about the ability of tasters to tell the difference. Those who made such claims probably weren't drinking Gallo in the first place.
They were passing of as expensive, something that's actually cheap. Where else would that work so easily, for so long?
I think it's closer to say they were passing off as cheap, something that's actually even cheaper.
Switch the food item and see if your criticism holds:
Wonderbread, America's top bread maker,...
Part of the problem stems from different uses of the word "caution".
There are a range of possible outcomes for the earth's climate (and the resulting cost in lives and money) over the next century ranging from "everything will be fine" to "catastrophic"; there is also uncertainty over the costs and benefits of any given intervention. So what should we do?
Some say, "Caution! We don't know what's going to happen; let's not change things too fast. Keep our current policies and behaviors until we know more."
Others say, &...
Another form of argumentus interruptus is when the other suddenly weakens their claim, without acknowledging the weakening as a concession
I used to do this quite often. Usually in personal conversations rather than online, because I would get caught up in trying to win. I didn't really notice I was doing it until I heard someone grumbling about such behavior and realized I was among the guilty. Now I try to catch myself before retreating, and make sure to acknowledge the point.
So not much to add, other than the encouraging observation that people can occasionally improve their behavior by reading this sort of stuff.
It seems like you missed one hypothesis: maybe you're mistaken about the people in question, and they actually never were all that intelligent. They achieved their status via other means. It's an especially plausible error because they have high status--surely they must have got where they are by dint of great intellect!
Define a "representative" item sample as one coming from a study containing explicit statements that (a) a natural environment had been defined and (b) the items had been generated by random sampling of this environment.
Can you elaborate on what this actually means in practice? It doesn't make much sense to me, and the paper you linked to is behind a paywall.
(It doesn't make much sense because I don't see how you could rigorously distinguish between a "natural" or "unnatural" environment for human decision-making. But maybe they're just looking for cases where experimenters at least tried, even without rigor?)
Serious nitpicking going on here. The whole point of my post is that from the information provided, one should arrive at probabilities close to what I said.
It's not "nitpicking" to calibrate your probabilities correctly. If someone was to answer innocent with probability 0.999, they should be wrong about one time in a thousand.
So what evidence was available to achieve such confidence? No DNA, no bloodstains, no phone calls, no suspects fleeing the country, no testimony. Just a couple of websites. People make stuff up on websites all the time....
I've seen the paper, but it assumes the point in question in the definition of partially rational agents in the very first paragraph:
If these agents agree that their estimates are consistent with certain easy-to-compute consistency constraints, then... [conclusion follows].
But peoples' estimates generally aren't consistent with his constraints, so even for someone who is sufficiently rational, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever to assume that everyone else is.
This doesn't mean Robin's paper is wrong. It just means that faced with a topic where we wo...
I think there's another, more fundamental reason why Aumann agreement doesn't matter in practice. It requires each party to assume the other is completely rational and honest.
Acting as if the other party is rational is good for promoting calm and reasonable discussion. Seriously considering the possibility that the other party is rational is certainly valuable. But assuming that the other party is in fact totally rational is just silly. We know we're talking to other flawed human beings, and either or both of us might just be totally off base, even if we're hanging around on a rationality discussion board.
I was unfamiliar with the case. I came up with: 1 - 20% 2 - 20% 3 - 96% 4 - probably in the same direction, but no idea how confident you were.
From reading other comments, it seems like I put a different interpretation on the numbers than most people. Mine were based on times in the past that I've formed an opinion from secondhand sources (blogs etc.) on a controversial issue like this, and then later reversed that opinion after learning many more facts.
Thus, about 1 time in 5 when I'm convinced by a similar story of how some innocent person was falsel...
Parrots and other birds seem to be about that intelligent, and octopi are close.
Perhaps that's an argument for the difficulty of the chimp to human jump: we have (nearly) ape-level intelligence evolving multiple times, so it can't be that hard, but most lineages plateaued there.