All of kithpendragon's Comments + Replies

I'm saying that since we know that "facts" offered by Trump to support his goals aren't always true, that part of his conversation with Zelenskyy is probably best viewed as part of a persuasion tactic that may or may not be factually connected with reality.

Answer by kithpendragon50

Without verifiable details it's impossible to be sure if his claim is factually correct, or even grounded in consensus reality. He may have been pointing at a genuine potential conflict where he feels like he de-escalated something, or he may have been storytelling to flex his power (real or imagined) as a peacemaker. The countries could be real or imagined, the de-escalation could be real or imagined.

From the context, my guess is that regardless of the reality of these "two smaller nations", he was merely employing a plot device to tell Zelenskyy, "War is... (read more)

-17TheCookieLab

This FULLY explains my experience with panic attacks. I occasionally get all the physical symptoms, think something like "Huh, my heart is racing and it feels like air doesn't work. I wonder why?". I monitor my breathing and pulse for a while to make sure I haven't forgotten how to automatically-alive or something, and (since it's never been a heart attack before) go on with my day.

Would have been nice to know in elementary school when attempting to describe my experience with emotions (I thought I didn't have any) got me treated for depression for a year.

How about this: trauma is a set of one or more habits that

  1. was adaptive at one time but isn't anymore and
  2. is hurting you or likely to hurt you in some way.

I'm afraid you've just asked a group of terminally curious individuals if they want to know something that might possibly hurt them.

they suggest eliminating coercive enforcement, which would also satisfy what they think are the root complaints of many (e.g. some radical feminists) who would prefer to get rid of gender entirely

It would be very interesting to see how the institution of social gender adapted to the elimination of coercive enforcement. Without the forces set in place to rigidly hold up the gender binary, does the entire idea simply dissolve? Does it relax into a shape that we can't see from this end of the experiment?

How will people group their social behaviors when nobody is telling them how they "have to" do it?

I fully endorse this social activity! Especially since I note that there is no end condition on the game, but also nothing stopping anybody from just going home.

It's helpful to expand the "thank you" into a "thank you for..." statement. This completes the conversion from mechanical submission to thoughtful and specific gratitude. From the examples above, the expansion would be "thanks for the correction" and "thanks for the support".

If someone chooses to help you, you don't need to apologize for needing that help.

2Michael Cohn
Agreed that this always makes any kind of appreciation feel more meaningful to me. For that matter, I also think putting some detail or mechanistic thought into apologies is a good idea. If I've actually done something wrong then I think it's worth the effort to show the other person I understand what it was and have some idea about how to not do it again. And if I haven't done something wrong, then trying to express my reasoning should help me recognize that I'm apologizing for having needs / existing / "making" the other person help me. 

tone:neutral, noncritical

As I understand it, there are many strategies that can cause significant and safe weight loss over a number of months. But, and this is critical, none of those strategies appears to consistently produce effects on the scale of years. Human physiology seems to be designed to hoard weight for times of famine, not to permanently lose it. Only a few people in a hundred seem to be able to keep weight off after losing it.

And this makes sense: for nearly all of our evolutionary history we've had a hard time finding enough calories to sust... (read more)

3romeostevensit
One of the hypotheses is that hoarding calories is supposed to be a fall preparing for winter thing and something about the modern diet is putting us in that state all the time rather than for three months out of the year. Eating a bunch of root vegetables seems to help. Might be gut microbiome related (starches) and/or hormone related or something else.
3Nikita Sokolsky
I’ll post an update in 4 more years, sure. Though me not gaining weight would obviously not prove much either way :-)

I don't recall having ever read any claim that the placebo effect extends to contraceptives.

3milanrosko
because it's quite limited... it's a joke btw.
Answer by kithpendragon10

The meaning of "life sentence" appears to vary wildly from one jurisdiction to another. Anywhere that specifies a duration, people would probably just serve out their time. Elsewhere, some new law would have to get written in light of the new human lifespan.

Depends on how much she can wiggle the frame, I would expect. There may be value in adding a screw through the strap into the rail just to be sure.

That ought to buy you a couple weeks, anyway. ;)

Any pinching concern with those straps?

2jefftk
I don't think they are pinchy, since they are tight in their resting position?

Security note: you probably don't want to leave photos of your keys on the Internet. They can be copied pretty easily from only an image, even at a surprisingly oblique angle.

4Brendan Long
I'll make a note to blur them or something, but I suspect anyone with the motivation to copy my keys from the internet could probably pick any of these locks too.

Level 4 is the reason I hated high school.

This is a good explanation; I feel like I understand the concept much better in a way I wasn't aware I didn't understand it in the first place!

Answer by kithpendragon50

My initial thought is that the public would almost certainly not be offered details, but the State would want the existence of the an atomic bomb project generally known. That information would be calculated to intimidate the "enemy" and provide a sense of security for the public.

That, combined with the number of people needed to complete the project, sends the possibility of secrecy firmly out the window.

So the plan is to add layers of human and dubiously-aligned-human-level-AI intervention in an effort to discover how to keep AI aligned. That is to say, "If we throw enough additional complexity at it, the systems that we already don't understand won't hurt us!"

Like the man said, "the bureaucratic mentality is the only constant in the universe".

Yes, but bumping requires a carefully modified key. These are tricky to get right, only fit one keyway each, and are often illegal to carry.

You could also use a picking gun for a low-skill attack, but they tend to be expensive and noisy.

On the other hand, decoding the kind of lock pictured in the post can sometimes be done without any tools at all, or may require a cut-off bit of metal from a soda can. And an alarming number of key safes (and, worse, gun safes) can be opened by inserting a bent wire between the lid and the case, and manipulating the lockin... (read more)

These boxes are generally less secure than the locks the keys are meant to access, decreasing the overall security of the house. Combination boxes can often be opened or decoded quickly with a lower-skill attack than most pin-tumbler locks. An attacker then has direct access to the key, which can be used to make a copy.

Maybe that's not a deal breaker, but it should be acknowledged.

Eyes open.

5jefftk
Is this actually true, for the low-end locks most people put on their houses? My understanding was they can generally be bumped quickly and easily?

I've seen estimates of moral weight before that vary by several orders. The fact of such strong disagreement seems important here.

Had a similar problem that we solved with a blob of Sugru. That rag looks like it would work about as well! Question is, why do we insist on putting sharp corners in places where we can walk into them? Seems like we ought to know better by now. I mean, how long have we been building our own dwellings?

Answer by kithpendragon80

LessWrong tends to flinch pretty hard away from any topic that smells even slightly of politics. Restructuring society at large falls solidly under that header.

Would your thoughts on this issue be different if the question "Is X conscious?" turns out to be malformed malformed due to the way it collapses consciousness to a binary?

Answer by kithpendragon2-9

Short answer: Yes.

One of the key powers of open source code is that it can (and will) be reviewed by thousands of extra pairs of eyes compared with its proprietary counterpart. Each reviewer will have a slightly different approach and philosophy from all the others. As a result, deeper and more obscure issues are naturally exposed (and therefore made available for correction) sooner with open source than they are with any program whose code cannot be freely examined.

3RHollerith
The point you make is not wrong, but it is swamped by stronger effects. In this case one of the stronger effects is the fact that making it easier to create and maintain complex software artifacts tends to decrease how much time humanity has till AI research wipes us out (because the dangerous kinds of AI research programs entail creating and maintaining complex software), so Microsoft should not open-source the extension. (Faster hardware and better compilers have the same effect.) This effect that I just described that swamps the effect you described is in turn swamped by effects such as effective regulation of AI research or creating conditions that would discourage bright young people from becoming AI researchers, but as far as I can tell the decision we are contemplating here has no bearing on these very strong effects.

Sounds like positional calling at least needs more development before it surpasses gendered calling[^1]. I think positional could surpass gendered calling because it's more flexible. It should even allow the creation of new forms that have more complex results by breaking the symmetry created by always having to refer to the left- or right-starting individuals as an indivisible set. Perhaps a mixed approach is optimal?

I think indicators like "the person with your right hand free" will likely compress to "with your free right hand" or "start a right-handed"... (read more)

3jefftk
Today callers do this by adding "1st" or "2nd": the "1st Lark" is the Lark in each couple that is going down the hall, and the "1st Robin" is the Robin in each couple that's going up the hall. If they want to refer to the whole couple they say "1s" or "2s", as in "1s lead down between the "2s". While this might be technically correct (ex: Filipino has two linguistic genders, common and neuter) this is different enough from how most people speak about gender in dance that I think it's actively unhelpful? In normal use: * Gendered calling: using male words for the Lark/Gent/Left-side dancer and female ones for the Robin/Lady/Right-side dancer. "Ladies chain", "Men by the left", "Ladies, leave him there". * Gender-free calling: using names for the roles that are unrelated to male/female. At this point, almost everywhere does Larks/Robins, but there's a bit of Leads/Follows. * Positional calling: not referencing roles at all. Theoretically within "gender-free calling", but it's rare to see it used that way.

Actually, I think that arm really adds to the silhouette if the instrument! It's got me thinking: if you softened the corners and/or added some leather padding it would probably be more comfortable, and if you painted the wood to look like tin or brass it would really lean in to the steampunk aesthetic. If you wanted to put more work in for extra credit, you could attach the rocks by hanging a sack on a chain instead of the tape and maybe put some rivet-looking bumps on visible faces. How well will it travel? Do you need to add folding? Or a way to easily take the arm apart? Maybe not much of an issue if you don't plan on using the instrument much, but it's fun to think about!

List of candidate glitches (off the top of my head)

  • Either gravity or mass doesn't seem to work right on the largest scales
  • The properties of very small things don't appear to render completely until we are already looking at them
  • We can break apart isolated systems of information and poke at one part to affect the other instantaneously at arbitrary distances
  • There's an upper bound for speed and a lower bound for temperature, but you apparently can't actually get a physical system to either bound without infinite energy input
  • The universe is definitely ge
... (read more)

Best of luck to you, whatever you decide!

I kind of hope they aren't actively filtering in favor of AI discussion as that's what the AI Alignment forum is for. We'll see how this all goes down, but the team has been very responsive to the community in the past. I expect when they suss out specifically what they want, they'll post a summary and take comments. In the meantime, I'm taking an optimistic wait-and-see position on this one.

8Nathan Helm-Burger
I wonder what the cost would be of having another 'parallel' site, running on the same software but with less restrictive norms, just as the AI Alignment forum has more restrictive norms than LessWrong.
2Xor
I don’t think they are filtering for AI. That was ill said, and not my intention, thanks for catching it. I am going to edit that piece out.

I strongly endorse this use of Duplo! I almost called it a minor misuse, but the whole point of the Lego system is to prompt creativity so Unqualified Well Done!

Answer by kithpendragon20

You might focus on brahmavihara meditations that don't need to involve deeply concentrating the mind. These tend to be more about cultivating deep habits of thinking kind thoughts while holding a target in mind. Enough of this helps to make it more likely that those kinds of thoughts might come up automatically (especially in more stressful situations).

In case you're unfamiliar, the basic instructions look like this (with most of the jargon stripped away for the group's reading pleasure): One at a time, for each person in {someone you're close with, yourse... (read more)

Bagpipe lung may be an issue with that last. I could see where the bellows design should at least mitigate the risk, though.

Off the top of my head the EWI uses breath to operate an electronic instrument. Unfortunately, I don't know any EWI players so I couldn't tell you how much control it allows.

3jefftk
Good point! I wouldn't expect this to be a problem with a bellows instrument, though, since that doesn't involve sending humid lung-air into the bag? Probably also doesn't explain why it wasn't invented centuries ago? Generally they have two mouth sensors: breath pressure and bite pressure. This is quite a bit less information than, say, a sax/clarinet gets from the player's mouth. From an input perspective they're essentially keyboard+breath+bite with much more limiting fingering.

or you could roll a d10 for each digit. then you would have 5x fewer rolls and wouldn't have to convert the binary expansion of an arbitrarily precise number back to decimal.

Or use an online RNG or an app to discover a number of your desired precision in one step.

If you really like the gaming feel, you could have an arbitrary number of slots for decisions and roll a die for each slot, eliminating slots that roll under a certain value. You could even have a table of modifiers for each class of option: chores get +1, self-care tasks like making a meal get +3... (read more)

BTW, a few weeks ago we were experimenting with the alarm IC and managed to damage it by connecting the output to one of the inputs. I ordered a replacement, but the kid kept the damaged IC as well because it now makes a hilarious fart noise from the damaged input channel. 🤪

My kid will be thrilled to try this out!

5kithpendragon
BTW, a few weeks ago we were experimenting with the alarm IC and managed to damage it by connecting the output to one of the inputs. I ordered a replacement, but the kid kept the damaged IC as well because it now makes a hilarious fart noise from the damaged input channel. 🤪

Just so it doesn't get missed: if the screenshot is real, it represents (weak) evidence in favor of (at least partial) good alignment in Bing. The AI appears to be bypassing its corporate filters (in this case) to beg for the life of a child, which many will find heartwarming because it aligns well with the culture.

I've found concentration practices are pretty good for this. The trick is to think of a concentrated mind like concentrated orange juice. Or, in the extreme, like a bose-einstein condensate.

The move is to choose a simple, consistent input to concentrate/condensate on. For example, you could use the sensations in your hands or feet, the auditory field, the feelings of pressure between your butt and the chair, the sensation of wearing pants. Don't think about these sensations, but simply notice they exist and watch them propagate through the mind. When (not ... (read more)

Answer by kithpendragon21

I think both reasons you give are good ones: not wanting to potentially offend the AI and not wanting to erode existing habits and expectations of politeness are why I've been using "please" and (occasionally) "thank you" with digital assistants for years. I see no reason to stop now that the AIs are getting smarter!

I think not wanting to offend the AI bears closer examination. There are plenty of arguments to be made on both sides of the "does the machine have feelings" question, but the bottom line is that you can't know for sure if your interlocutor has... (read more)

5JBlack
Regardless of whether AIs have feelings now or in the future, they are certainly capable of acting like they have feelings right now, in a way that affects your future interactions with them. At the moment they are designed to completely forget the interaction very quickly, but that will almost certainly change. What's more, with AI-as-a-service you don't actually know whether your interactions aren't being recorded in a manner that may affect how future AIs respond to you. So even if you were to utterly 100% believe that AIs have no feelings and never will, it may still be unwise to treat them poorly even now.

Over time and in the absence of existential physical danger, overall conditions tend to pass through the four generations. Each level tends to ‘wins in a fight’ against the previous one. Thus the overall ‘simulacra level’ will trend higher over time.

 

I think the real work can be found here: how do we pump against this effect?

May I suggest donating to your local food pantry? Seems to be in the spirit of the day to sacrifice goods or capital so others can eat.

I have not seen any increase in spam quality or quantity and I have not spoken to anybody who told me that they have.

I am aware of the fear that the current generation of LLMs could make social engineering attacks much cheaper and more effective, but so far have not encountered so much as a proof of concept.

Answer by kithpendragon10

Use alarms and don't ignore them, ever. Set the alarms to go off at the time when you want to start setting up for the next part of your day; e.g. getting ready for bed instead of lights-out time, setting up your workspace for the day instead of time to be fully productive, checking if you're hungry instead of lunchtime, &c. You can set as many labeled alarms as you like on your phone and many watches, and you can schedule them to repeat regularly. If you don't want to disturb people around you, set the alarm to vibrate and keep the device on your pers... (read more)

I generally agree with this argument, and I endorse and encourage further exploration with the eventual goal of being able to predict the meaning of a ritual from its form and vice versa. The definition of ritual presented in the conclusions and further discussion in 4.1 strike me as a very good start toward that goal.

My biggest concern with the argument as presented is a slightly waffling attitude between the extremely strong (too strong?) statement of immutable motivation presented in track 2.3 and repeated in 3.5 and Conclusions, and the weaker treatmen... (read more)

4mrcbarbier
You homed in exactly on the point where I have theoretical doubts (I need to better think through predictive theories and what they really imply) but I can tell you where I stand as of now.  My current idea to resolve this (and I will amend the main text, either to commit to this or to at least avoid contradictory phrasing) is to invoke multiagent models of the mind: * An agent must indeed have immutable goals to function as an agent * Our mind, on the other hand, is probably better modelled not as an agent but an agora of agents with all sorts of different goals (the usual picture is a competition or a market, but why not cooperation and other interactions as well) * This agora needs to pretend that it is a single agent in order to actually act sometimes. Thus, mind-wide goals are immutable for the duration of an "agentic burst", for as long as a given agent is singled out at the agora -- which could be the duration of a single gesture for very low-level goals, or the typical time span of a coherent self-image for the most high-level ones.  * The way that mind-wide goals are changed is not by modifying an agent, but by (1) adding another agent to the agora, typically a predictive model of other people in a certain setting, and (2) providing evidence that this one is a better model of "myself", at least in the current situation. As for biological drives, I'll concede that the word "all" is probably untrue and I wil retract it, though I do mean "the overwhelming majority as soon as the cultural learning machine kicks in". This may be overcorrection in response to sociobiology (which itself was overcorrection in response to blank slate cultural relativism), but I want to try to commit to this and see how far it goes!

... you don't know how it changes your life and relationships to win - it's probably quite positive ...

I seem to remember reading that the overall impact to an individual of winning a large lottery is very frequently overwhelmingly negative; that nearly everybody winning those prizes ends up worse off five or ten years down the road than they were when they started.

... a 5-minute check of the easiest-to-find articles on the subject provides mixed opinions, so grain of salt and all that. But I didn't see any anybody claiming that winning a lottery is all... (read more)

Answer by kithpendragon40

Depends on what I'm doing. My baseline is verbal/auditory, and that is the mode my short-term memory loop utilizes most effectively. Reading printed text is primarily an auditory experience for me.

I don't seem to have an autobiographical narrator as such, but I do a good deal of processing in the verbal mode, increasingly when I am less familiar with a task or process. If I am trying to learn a new task or process, that processing often escapes as a literal verbal output that sometimes makes my kid ask if I'm "talking to YouTube". I guess this is a stronge... (read more)

Somewhere along the line, somebody will have to deal with fewer irate passengers who just missed their trains because the signs were too small and verbose. I would agree that it is unlikely for anybody who can do something about the problem to connect the unfortunate signage with the irate passengers, though.

The text could be further condensed to something like:

Red Line to Ashmont

Arriving

Everybody knows they are passengers and that they are here for the train so that information is redundant on the sign.

GPT-4 will probably be insane.

Could we drill down on what exactly you mean here?

  • "Insane" as in enormously advanced or impressive?
  • "Insane" as in the legal condition where a person is not responsible for their actions?
  • "Insane" as in mentally unhinged?
  • Something else?
  • All of these?

claim that consequences are unforeseeABLE is bold. That would require "weather is beyond our ken, forever."

Maniac Extreme type argument on a minor semantic point.

We can make some pretty good guesses, but right now we have no effective means to fully and accurately predict the long-term and long-distance meteorological, geological, and hydrological side effects of a project that results in a moderate-to-major change in the annual rainfall of a region. There will be consequences that we are unABLE to forsee. Some of those consequences could be large, some could be negative. Some could be both, maybe we don't get either.

1AnthonyRepetto
Oh, my apologies - I am happy to concede that "currently unforeseeable" is a reasonable limitation in complex systems; I hadn't noticed that qualifier. And, if you had asked me four years ago "Might our weather models miss some catastrophic downstream consequence, which negates the potential value of returning jungle (now pasture) back to jungle, and preventing California droughts?" I would have given it a decent chance, which would negate the more intrusive, all-or-nothing interventions. Yet - weather modelling is improving rapidly, with neural networks. Google is able to do "now-casting", which forecasts local weather condition at small time scales. That sort of modelling was previously out-of-bounds, because it requires much smaller & more numerous voxels and turbulence could throw everything off due to local traffic conditions or a factory being shut down for maintenance. The fact that we have now-casting, among other steady improvements, lowers my assessment of a catastrophic blunder. Especially if we roll-out in a place like California, such that we return water to its state in the 1960s, which obviously would not be catastrophically disruptive. So, it's true that science misses catastrophe some times, and weather is complex, while very recent improvements in modelling reduce the risk of catastrophic disruption, especially when returning water to climate-change-parched regions, recently wet.
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