Forgive me - I'm not a statistician nor an economist - but isn't this just a pareto distribution thing?
In the comments section of this post http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/bosses_prefer_o.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/bosses_prefer_o.html#comments, Perry provided what seemed to me be a very insightful analysis of how organizations, as they scale, switch from being entrepreneurial and innovative to sclerotic and less competitive, largely through the arrival of what I would call "cashflow appropriators", who as Perry says drive o...
Barkley Rosser
How good are the bubble forecasters, and can these phenomenon be usefully measured quantitatively? My impression from Mandelbrot's book was not perfectly yet. I've seen housing market analysis from people like Didier Sornette, who would imply we should have experienced a crash in the UK before now, although there may be special factors here since his analysis like large-scale immigration that have contributed to a soft landing. Are you thinking of the more intuitive, but post-rationalising behaviour of a Soros, or the very calculating acti... (read more)