We have additional information about researcher 2's experiment. If researcher 2 didn't look at the data before that point, then the procedures were the same, so the data should be treated the same.
If researcher 2 did check the data along the way--a reasonable enough assumption, given researcher 2's goal--then there were other tests which all came out below 60%. There was an upswing in successes at the end, and we know it. The other experiment may well have experienced the same thing, but in experiment 2, I don't have to look; I see it. Was there an importa... (read more)
Good point, there is some ordering information leaked. This is consistent with identical likelihoods for both setups - learning which permutation of arguments we're feeding into a commutative operator (multiplication of likelihood ratios) doesn't tell us anything about its result.
We have additional information about researcher 2's experiment. If researcher 2 didn't look at the data before that point, then the procedures were the same, so the data should be treated the same.
If researcher 2 did check the data along the way--a reasonable enough assumption, given researcher 2's goal--then there were other tests which all came out below 60%. There was an upswing in successes at the end, and we know it. The other experiment may well have experienced the same thing, but in experiment 2, I don't have to look; I see it. Was there an importa... (read more)