All of lisperati's Comments + Replies

To be fair, the tuned models are arguably the most dangerous models, since they are more easily guided towards specific objectives. The fact that they release tuned models, on which the safety measures can be removed, is particularly egregious.

Though your overall point is a valid one.

A lot of things that are cringe are specifically that way because they violate a socially-maintained taboo. Overcoming the taboos against these sorts of actions and these sorts of topics is precisely what we should be doing.

The fact that it is cringey is exactly the reason I am going to participate

1Holly_Elmore
Particularly in the rationalist community it seems like protesting is seen as a very outgroup thing to do. But why should that be? Good on you for expanding your comfort zone-- hope to see you there :)
3M. Y. Zuo
What if there's a taboo against being able to pick and choose which taboos to "overcome"? This seems likely to be the case otherwise the taboos on incest for example would have disappeared long ago in the US. Since there's easily a hard core group, almost certainly >0.1% of the US population, who would be just as interested in 'overcoming' that taboo.
1TekhneMakre
Seems very plausible to me.

I'll adjust Paul. I agree it would be better if there was more clarity on guesses. If there is enough interest in the site I will push an update in a couple months and add indicators on what constitutes rough guesses.

1[comment deleted]

I agree, but a chart like this needs to make some compromises on design for the sake of clarity

They are "low risk" relative to the risk estimate most other people are giving.

Yeah, looking into this more I agree on both points. I don't see good data on those axes for either of those two.

You want to take a stab at a guesstimate for what new values would be better, so I can update the chart?

2Thomas Kwa
Ajeya's median of 2040 for Paul? No idea for Demis. It might be better to not include people you don't have data for, because including your guesses could be misleading. Or at least indicate they're guesses somehow...

I think two completely different hypotheses for this phenomenon are more likely:

Hypothesis #1: It can be a dog whistle between investors that an entrepreneur will "stop at nothing to succeed" which can include borderline unethical behavior. Investors may prefer to invest in companies that act in this way, but the investors don't want to overtly condone unethical behavior and instead use coded language to avoid personal liability. The poster child of this is probably Travis Kalanick, the CEO of Uber who reportedly had no problems with booking... (read more)

FWIW, I very much wanted to adjust my investments based on the covid news, but was stopped from doing so mainly via friction:

1. I made recent profits from my stocks, so selling them (even for a short window) would have had bad capital gains repercussions for me... in the US it's a PITA to deleverage stocks that are in the green.

2. I'm not enough of a trading wonk to feel comfortable buying puts, and the little in the past that I've played around with those tools seemed to indicate that it's hard for a non-professional to avoid excessive... (read more)

The day that doctors in my area post stuff on social media about performing procedures with plastic bags over their heads (like this: https://twitter.com/rekhakuttikat/status/1240768592880132096) I'll donate my masks to a hospital.

If that doesn't happen and we pass the peak of the illness, I think the masks should instead go to the spouses of people in my neighborhood who have symptoms.

Problem: Sick or elderly neighbors who can't get groceries and don't know anyone in the neighborhood to ask for help.

Solution: We put fliers into all the mailboxes in our neighborhood just this evening, giving people our phone numbers and an online group we're managing so that we can coordinate future grocery store runs (and other support activities)

4Sean_o_h
This is super awesome. Thank you for doing this.