All of lmn's Comments + Replies

lmn10

Specifically, the main quality factors in people reading a Wikipedia page are (a) the existence of the page (!), (b) whether the page has the stuff they were looking for.

(c) whether the information on the page is accurate.

I proxied the first by number of pages, and the second by length of the pages that already existed.

Except not all topics and not all information are of equal interest to people.

1VipulNaik
FWIW, my impression is that data on Wikipedia has gotten somewhat more accurate over time, due to the push for more citations, though I think much of this effect occurred before the decline started. I think the push for accuracy has traded off a lot against growth of content (both growth in number of pages and growth in amount of data on each page). These are crude impressions (I've read some relevant research but don't have strong reason to believe that should be decisive in this evaluation) but I'm curious to hear what specific impressions you have that are contrary to this.
1VipulNaik
If you have more fine-grained data at your disposal on different topics and how much each has grown or shrunk in terms of number of pages, data available on each page, and accuracy, please share :).
lmn-30

In this approach, you concede a need to at least occasionally intervene in a particular kind of dispute such as banning the white supremacists

Another problem with this is what does one mean by "white supremacists"? The definition used by the people who most advocate banning them tends to include anyone who believes in certain statements about the differences between races that are almost certainly true. For example, how race correlates with IQ. This is especially a problem for a forum that wants to be "rational".

2Viliam
Yeah. Two decisions must be made: Do I want to ban ideology X? Is comment Y an example of ideology X? So even if you could somehow reach a consensus about which ideologies are banned and which are not, users will continue their wars by arguing whether given comment is an example (or a "dog whistle" for) one of the banned ideologies. If you interpret it too literally, everything you banned will come back, only the users will avoid using certain keywords, sometimes openly mocking the moderation system. Interpreting it otherwise will force you to express opinions on thousand topics, and any decision will seem biased in favor of some side.
1Kenny
Sorry for the downvote (because I'm guessing you weren't trying to needlessly debate the specific example you mention), but it seems pretty obvious that any 'formal' policy (i.e. 'laws') will create an opportunity for 'lawyering', e.g. arguing about the definition of specific formal terms.
lmn10

You seem to be conflating quantity and quality.

1VipulNaik
In the case of Wikipedia, I think the aspects of quality that correlate most with explaining pageviews are readily proxied by quantity. Specifically, the main quality factors in people reading a Wikipedia page are (a) the existence of the page (!), (b) whether the page has the stuff they were looking for. I proxied the first by number of pages, and the second by length of the pages that already existed. Admittedly, there are a lot more subtleties to quality measurement (which I can go into in depth at some other point) some of which can have indirect, long-term effects on pageviews, but on most of these dimensions Wikipedia hasn't declined in the last few years (though I think it has grown more slowly than it would with a less dysfunctional mod culture, and arguably too slowly to keep pace with the competition).
lmn10

To mention the elephant in the living room, I wonder if the increasingly broken wikipedia mod culture has something to do with this.

1VipulNaik
Great point. As somebody who has been in the crosshairs of Wikipedia mods (see ANI) my bias would push me to agree :). However, despite what I see as problems with Wikipedia mod culture, it remains true that Wikipedia has grown quite a bit, both in number of articles and length of already existing articles, over the time period when pageviews declined. I suspect the culture is probably a factor in that it represents an opportunity cost: a better culture might have led to an (even) better Wikipedia that would not have declined in pageviews so much, but I don't think the mod culture led to a quality decline per se. In other words, I don't think the mechanism: counterproductive mod culture -> quality decline -> pageview decline is feasible.
lmn10

What about ostensibly apolitical posts that nonetheless use hot button issues as examples?

What about situations where a hot button issue comes up in the context of discussion?

2ozymandias
>Note that this guide doesn't apply to your personal LW blog - you can do whatever you like there. This post talks about the norms and epistemic standards encouraged on the frontpage of LessWrong. In practice, I was concerned about this issue and discussed it with a moderator ahead of time; they signed off on my plan of putting it on my personal blog feed without promoting it to the front page. (Unrelated: HOW DO YOU FORMAT QUOTES)
lmn10

Here is Vox Day explicitly arguing that if conservatives can be fired for expressing their opinions, so should NFL player for disrespecting the flag.

We all know that the NFL wouldn't hesitate to act if players started throwing Nazi salutes; they already come down hard on the expression of any opinion that is negative about homosexuality.

The Rubicon has been decisively crossed, so it's time to start cracking down on "speech" Americans don't like.

Always play by the rules that are actually in place, not by the rules that you wish were

... (read more)
3gjm
That looks to me not so much like "The enemy does X, therefore we're justified in doing the same to them" but "The enemy does X, therefore no one can object to our doing the same to them without hypocrisy". I think Vox Day and his pals would want NFL players fired for "disrespecting the flag" (etc., etc., etc.) even if no one were doing anything of the sort to rightists. (I'm sure there is a lot of "they did X to us, so we can do X to them" thinking going on, though, on all sides. It's a very standard social failure mode and tends to lead to prolonged escalation.)
lmn-20

This certainly seems rather accusatory, seeing as (as far as I know) Ozy doesn't actually support doxxing random social media users and is certainly not responsible for the actions of the entire SJ movement.

Except the OP is presented as an arguments against the elements of SJ that would oppose it.

Ozy's claim here, as far as I can tell, is that, even if people on Our Side stopped doing bad things, that wouldn't automatically cause people on The Other Side to stop doing bad things. Do you actually think that Ozy is wrong about this, or do you

... (read more)
3magfrump
I'd be interested in seeing a citation for this, just like a link to a discussion in a "typical alt-right place" that uses this reasoning explicitly
5Ben Pace
[Note from the Sunshine Regiment] This comment (and other comments by user lmn) have been in parts aggressive and pushed towards having more tribal disagreements. As such, I've been in touch privately with lmn, and also given them a 7-day suspension from commenting, voting and posting.
6silver-and-ivory
This certainly seems rather accusatory, seeing as (as far as I know) Ozy doesn't actually support doxxing random social media users and is certainly not responsible for the actions of the entire SJ movement. However, your point - that while Ozy is not contributing to this norm, other people are - is worth addressing. Ozy's claim here, as far as I can tell, is that, even if people on Our Side stopped doing bad things, that wouldn't automatically cause people on The Other Side to stop doing bad things. Do you actually think that Ozy is wrong about this, or do you only disagree that the evidence they present is sufficient? Even if one side stopped doxxing, the other side would probably keep doxxing. Tit for tat doesn't work very well if everyone just keeps defecting on each other. This is unusually likely to happen - and it is in fact what's happening - because there are hundreds of individual actors who aren't particularly coordinated. If you dox SJ #1 and SJ #1 repents and decides never ever to dox again, SJ #2 doesn't necessarily care. Also, many people who dox don't conceive of the situation in this way. "I doxxed someone, so in return I got doxxed. Therefore, I will never dox again." No, when they dox people it's good because those people are bad; when they get doxxed it's bad because they're a good person. In order to resolve the problem where everyone keeps defecting, it takes more than just one side saying, "Oh, I'll cooperate every time!" It takes some kind of unifying authority or agreement or something.
lmn-30

"intersectional" strikes me as an example of an intentionally confusing term, at least I've never been able to figure out a meaning beyond "a word people throw into arguments to make it a norm violation to notice that said arguments make no sense".

lmn-40

I'm scared of leaving my house. This means that when I make social arrangements a lot of the time I won't end up actually going to them because I will be too scared of leaving my house. Whether I'm going to have a good mental health day or a bad mental health day is hard to predict even a week in advance, because it depends on short-term triggers like whether I've fought with a close friend, whether the assholes across the street have decided to set off fireworks, whether a person has said something unpleasant about me on the Internet,

... (read more)
lmn00

I'm reminded of an incident in Richard Feynman's "What do you care what other people think?" involving his then girlfriend, later wife, Arline and her illness. Her family chose to go with (1) both Feynman and her where rather annoyed when they found out. I don't remember the exact details right now and don't have the book in front of me.

lmn00

I don't think that it depends on them.

Then why are you asserting them?

lmn20

There's a bunch of politics involved and additionally, it's about the distinction of states for which I believe jimmy to which I have replied to have mental models

And why does this discussion of psychological states depend no you asserting false statements about contemporary politics?

0ChristianKl
I don't think that it depends on them. The fact that you think it does, indicates that the context of politics puts you into a defense way of approaching this conversation and that's a state in which it's unlikely that it's easy to complicate a complex subject, and there's no real reason for me to put in that work.
lmn00

Clearly Trump tells lies that lead to people believing simple factual falsehoods.

I don't think this is clear at all. At least the statements of his that people object to the loudest aren't lies.

lmn30

In (1) the subject is the word "none". The word "us" is part of the prepositional phrase "of us".

lmn00

Honestly, I'm not sure how much Scott Adams even believes what he says. I suspect part of it is that his target audience is people for whom "don't worry Trump doesn't actually believe these things, he's just saying them to hypnotize the masses" is less threatening then "actually these things Trump says are true". If you want the latter, I recommend Steve Sailer.

lmn00

I'm sorry, I good the name wrong. I meant to say John Oliver and got the last name wrong.

This doesn't exactly inspire me to trust your memory about other details of the story.

I referencing information from one of his videos on Trump.

Specifically, he appears to have made a joke that could reasonably be interpreted as an invitation to Trump (specifically inviting an alias Trump once used), then said "that was only a joke" when Trump called him on it.

I think Last Week Tonight generally follows at least Karl Roves 100% truth test.

I admitte... (read more)

2ChristianKl
The goal of my post isn't to convince you. There's a bunch of politics involved and additionally, it's about the distinction of states for which I believe jimmy to which I have replied to have mental models, but where there's a good chance that you don't. The best way to explain those to you would likely to talk about hypnosis in a nonpolitical context and I don't want to get into that at this point.
lmn00

This reads like the author has such a strong external locus of control that he can't even imagine how an actual internal locus works. The whole point of an internal locus of control for things you can actually control is to control them. For example, rather than the rationalization for inaction:

My house is a mess, it's my fault but I don't care.

the actual internal locus of control behavior is:

My house is a mess and I'm going to clean it up right now, that mean before replying to this comment.

0MattG2
Agree, this was my thought as well.
lmn30

There are many issues where Trump lies about an issue where the truth would be simple to explain and be understood by average people. When Trump tells the public that John Stewart invited Trump multiple times when John Stewart did no such thing it might be "emotionally true" in the sense that people who watch Trump want to emotionally belief.

It's interesting that the best example you could come up with appears to be an obscure bit of trivia. I wasn't able to figure out the exact details by searching, but Jon Steward certainly said many things... (read more)

0ChristianKl
I'm sorry, I good the name wrong. I meant to say John Oliver and got the last name wrong. I referencing information from one of his videos on Trump. I think Last Week Tonight generally follows at least Karl Roves 100% truth test. Pieces of trivia make good examples because they are less politically charged. If you read "politics is the mindkiller" and understand it than you make effort in choicing nonpolitical examples to be able to think more rational. Rationally analyzing a person like Trump isn't easy and looking at examples that are in that trivia reference class instead of looking at highly charged political examples is much better if your goal is to understand the kind of person that Trump happens to be. I think it was something about how America has more people who suffer in poverty than many European countries.
lmn20

Honestly, the problem with this approach is that it tends to degenerate to "when my side tells lies, they're still emotionally true; when the other side makes inconvenient statements that are true, I can dismiss them as emotionally false".

0TheAncientGeek
That's harder to do when you have an explicit understanding.
0Bound_up
That is what most people are already doing. It has its advantages and disadvantages, but there are no advantages to being oblivious to how people are thinking
lmn00

Agreed. Which is why the scientific approach is think about how to refute the claim that the earth is flat using only information you personally gather, rather than making snarky comments about the implausibility of the conspiracy.

2Lumifer
I disagree. Science is not about having to poke everything with your own finger. In particular, science is perfectly fine with having to deal with uncertain evidence. I think your approach went out of favour somewhere around XVII century.
lmn00

Ok, now your just (intentionally?) missing the point of the hypothetical.

Also, science can and has been (and certainly still is) wrong about a lot of stuff. (Nutrition being a recent less-controversial example.)

0Lumifer
Science is a methodology, not a set of conclusions. At any given moment in time scientists are definitely wrong about a lot of stuff.
lmn00

That what you describe as the "real point" amounts to an appeal to authority.

0Lumifer
You misunderstand. The real point is that in the case we're talking about I suddenly discover that my picture of how the world is constructed is all wrong. Not only the world of physics, but the world of politics, culture, etc. as well. It turns out I don't really understand how it all works which should be very worrisome. And while mundane physics looks more or less the same (after all, I know how to go about my daily life without falling into the sky or somesuch), finding out that societies function in some entirely different manner than I expected is a good cause for alarm.
lmn00

I'd have to say no here, but if you asked about plants observing light or even ice observing heat, I'd say "sure, why not". There are various differences between what ice does, what roomba does, and what I do, however they are mostly quantitative and using one word for them all should be fine.

What are you basing this distinction on? More importantly, how is whatever you're basing this distinction on relevant to grounding the concept of empirical reality?

Using Eliezer's formulation of "making beliefs pay rents in anticipated experiences&q... (read more)

0tadasdatys
I would say that object observes an event if it changes its state in response to this event. Yes, that's a very low bar. First, gravity, isn't an event, so "observe" is an awkward word. We can instead "measure" and then observe the results. Of course, if the gravity did change, the rock would presumably change it's shape a tiny bit, which we may or may not count - that's fine, "observation" is supposed to be on a spectrum. Experiences are brain states, beliefs are also stored in the brain. Eliezer's advice is equally good both for you and for a roomba, regardless of which of you is supposedly conscious. It may not work for plants or ice though - I don't think I can find anything resembling beliefs in them, and even if I could, there would be no process to update them.
lmn00

Science is based on the principal of nullius in verba (take no one's word for it). So your attitude is anti-scientific and likely to fall a foul of Goodhart's law.

0Lumifer
Which particular part of my attitude is anti-scientific?
lmn00

Ok, so where does it store the administrator password to said server?

0username2
It ... doesn't? That's where it works from. No external access.
lmn10

How do you know? Does a falling rock also observe the gravitational field?

0tadasdatys
The same way I know what a chair is. I'd have to say no here, but if you asked about plants observing light or even ice observing heat, I'd say "sure, why not". There are various differences between what ice does, what roomba does, and what I do, however they are mostly quantitative and using one word for them all should be fine.
lmn00

I don't think this could work. Where would the virus keep its private key?

0username2
On a central command and control server it owns, and pays bitcoin to maintain.
lmn00

even for the improvement of the virus.

I don't think this would work. This requires some way for it to keep the human it has entrusted with editing its programing from modifying it to simply send him all the money it acquires.

0turchin
The human has to leave part of the money with the virus, as the virus needs to pay for installing its ransomware and for other services. If the human takes all money, the virus will be noneffective and will not so quickly replicate. Thus some form of natural selection will help viruses that give only part of their money (and future revenues) for programmers in exchange for modification.
lmn10

Finally, being conscious doesn't mean anything at all. It has no relationship to reality.

What do you mean by "reality"? If you're an empiricist, as it looks like you are, you mean "that which influinces our observations". Now what is an "observation"? Good luck answering that question without resorting to qualia.

0tadasdatys
"observation" is what your roomba does to find the dirt on your floor.
lmn00

A: "I would have an advantage in war so I demand a bigger share now" B: "Prove it" A: "Giving you the info would squander my advantage" B: "Let's agree on a procedure to check the info, and I precommit to giving you a bigger share if the check succeeds" A: "Cool"

Simply by telling B about the existence of an advantage A is giving B info that could weaken it. Also, what if the advantage is a way to partially cheat in precommitments?

lmn00

Even if A is FAI and B is a paperclipper, as long as both use correct decision theory, they will instantly merge into a new SI with a combined utility function.

What combined utility function? There is no way to combine utility functions.

3cousin_it
Weighted sum, with weights determined by bargaining.
lmn20

Maybe you can't think of a way to set up such trade, because emails can be faked etc, but I believe that superintelligences will find a way to achieve their mutual interest.

They'll also find ways of faking whatever communication methods are being used.

lmn00

Empirically, people who believe in the Christian hell don't behave dramatically better than people who do.

Hasn't quite been my experience but, whatever.

The doctrine of hell whose (de)merits we're discussing doesn't actually say that people are only eligible for hell if they have never stopped believing in it.

Of course, otherwise it would be completely useless as it would simply motivate people to stop believing in it.

lmn00

The more people the threat is known to, the less likely that they all comply.

And someone who doesn't know about it is even less likely to comply. If you've already concluded that threatening to torture someone is worth it for the increased chance of getting compliance, then the exact same calculation applies to everyone else.

0gjm
Hmm, that's true. So let's see how that calculation works out in the two cases being considered. The one that upset Eliezer: the goal is to get a sufficient number of people from a rather unusual population to do something extraordinary. Probably doesn't actually work (see e.g. the actual responses to that LW post, which AFAIK didn't in any case take the form "OK, I must start doing all I can to comply") but the idea here is that a small number of people can make a huge difference. The goal, therefore, is a very large impact per expected person tortured. The one we're talking about here: well, we can see roughly how this turns out. Empirically, people who believe in the Christian hell don't behave dramatically better than people who do. Hence, a fairly small impact per expected person tortured. (If I try to steelman your argument, I get things like this: "Ah, but you're looking now, at a time when in fact scarcely anyone actually believes in hell. Historically, most of the hell-belief comes centuries ago when Christianity was stronger, and for that reason it was effective then, which was an essential element in making Western mostly-Christian civilization the effective, high-trust thing it is; so we may suppose that God gave people the idea of hell with that purpose, knowing that it would die out once it was no longer needed." I don't want to get into a lengthy response to an argument that I just made up and that you may think is no good, but here's a sketchy one: 1. Plenty of people still believe in hell. 2. The doctrine of hell whose (de)merits we're discussing doesn't actually say that people are only eligible for hell if they have never stopped believing in it. 3. It's not in fact at all clear that the doctrine of hell was ever very effective in improving behaviour. 4. Neither is it at all clear that any such improved behaviour had much to do with the evolution of Western society into what it is now. 5. It's not hard to think of other ideas a benevolent super
lmn00

it seems to me that you want the threat known to a small number of people and to persuade them to work towards a highly specific goal that those people are particularly well-suited to achieving.

Not really. In fact one reason for universality is to discourage reactions like Eliezer's.

0gjm
The more people the threat is known to, the less likely that they all comply. Then, if the idea is to actually follow through on the threat (note that if that isn't the idea then you don't have here any sort of argument that hell is not morally monstrous) you're stuck with torturing a bunch of people for ever, which is liable to outweigh the benefits.
0Good_Burning_Plastic
How so?
lmn00

Because it seems incredibly unlikely to maximize utility,

Avoiding for the moment the question whether utilitarianism is the right approach to these kinds of problems. There is in fact a decision theory argument in favor of this. Eliezer stumbled up on a version of it and didn't react well, specifically banning all detailed discussion of it from LW in an extremely ham-handed manner.

neither does it accord with what seems to me a general principle that punishment should be at most proportionate to the crime being punished.

Where does this principal co... (read more)

0gjm
I haven't given a lot of thought to that particular argument, but it doesn't look to me as if it can plausibly work here. In order for it to produce useful effects without unacceptable collateral damage, it seems to me that you want the threat known to a small number of people and to persuade them to work towards a highly specific goal that those people are particularly well-suited to achieving. Exactly how small, how specific, what goal, and how well-suited may vary together in kinda-obvious ways. These conditions don't seem to me to be anywhere near to being met in the case of the Christian idea of hell. I'm not sure. If I'm thinking in utilitarian terms (which I generally am) I am mostly concerned with actions rather than principles (unless the question at issue is "would this be a good principle to have?", which it isn't here). I brought the deontological viewpoint in at all only because I know some people reject consequentialism and may be (or profess to be) wholly unmoved by the mere fact that something causes vast amounts of unnecessary suffering.
lmn00

I am not much interested in turning this into a lengthy argument about whether the available evidence actually does or doesn't support Christianity.

I'm not necessarily ether. I'm not even a Christian. That's what makes the number of laughably bad arguments people use to deconvert themselves so frustrating.

Punishing bad people may or may not be morally monstrous. Punishing finite badness with eternal torture is morally monstrous.

Why? I actually disagree with this point.

The scientific doctrine of light and matter does not really say that light an

... (read more)
0gjm
Because it seems incredibly unlikely to maximize utility, neither does it accord with what seems to me a general principle that punishment should be at most proportionate to the crime being punished. Why isn't it morally monstrous? I really don't think one could. What Christian theologians themselves (at least, the ones I've read) say about the Trinity is generally not anything like "this is counterintuitive but we understand it clearly now". I don't think they would claim that the appearance of contradiction goes away once the thing is understood; in fact I think they are more inclined to say that the more deeply you understand it the more (gloriously) mysterious it gets. I think so. There are many levels of understanding quantum mechanics and I by no means claim to have achieved them all, but the apparent contradiction goes away rather early in the process and from what I do understand of the deeper levels it does not look to me as if it ever comes back. (Other mysteries do appear, but that's a different matter.)
lmn00

Christian doctrines as morally monstrous (hell)

Why is punishing bad people morally monstrous?

probably internally incoherent (Trinity, dual nature of Christ)

Do you also find the scientific doctrine of light, and mater, being both particle and wave internally incoherent.

0Good_Burning_Plastic
Depending on what exactly you mean by "particle" that's either no less tautological than dogs being both mammals and animals or a possibly-only-approximate provisional model (complete with well-studied mathematical techniques to sweep the consequences of the incoherence under the rug) we're using while we figure out how to extend quantum field theory down to the quantum gravity scale and beyond.
1gjm
Meta-note 1: I am not much interested in turning this into a lengthy argument about whether the available evidence actually does or doesn't support Christianity. When I did that for myself my notes ended up being about 80k words long, and that was fairly terse and didn't waste space on mutual misunderstandings etc. as any discussion between different people is liable to do. I don't think LW is a good venue for tens of thousands of words of religious argument. I was addressing your statement about ex-Christians having "the stupidest reasons"; if you want to argue, not that my reasons were stupid, but that after lengthy consideration they will turn out to be wrong, then that's a change of subject. Meta-note 2: I realise that in the grandparent of this comment I didn't give a complete answer to your question (though it's possible that the smaller question I answered was the one you actually intended) because I didn't say anything about the arguments for Christianity that, in my opinion, were weaker than the best arguments against. I forget what arguments for Christianity (or, more weakly, for theism) I thought most convincing at the time, but here are some of the ones I looked into: arguments "from design" based on some variety of alleged excellence in the universe; inferences from particular apparent miracles or religious experiences to a divine agent behind them; arguments for Christianity in particular on the basis that the available historical evidence overwhelmingly favours belief in the resurrection of Jesus; allegedly-impressively-fulfilled prophecies in the Hebrew and Christian scriptures; "cosmological fine-tuning"; the alleged dependence of morality on God. Punishing bad people may or may not be morally monstrous. Punishing finite badness with eternal torture is morally monstrous. The scientific doctrine of light and matter does not really say that light and matter are "both particle and wave"; that is a simplification for popular presentation. What it act
lmn00

For example you wrote:

I was a Christian for many years, but repeatedly found that the best arguments I heard against Christianity seemed stronger than either the best refutations of those arguments or the best arguments for Christianity, and was uncomfortably aware that I didn't have much in the way of actual evidence for the factual claims of the religion I followed.

Which arguments and which factual claims?

0gjm
Bear in mind that this was several years ago, so my memory may be faulty. But I think mostly the arguments I called #1 and #2 above, together with (applicable only to more-traditional versions of Christianity) objections to specific Christian doctrines as morally monstrous (hell), probably internally incoherent (Trinity, dual nature of Christ), factually incorrect (recent origin of life), etc. Factual claims: pretty much any of them aside from some (mostly unimportant theologically) historical details. A couple of central examples: The existence of God, the resurrection of Jesus.
lmn00

It's not stupid as it stands. It is however rather lacking in the specifics it'd need to evaluate it.

0gjm
It's already as long and detailed as it seemed to me reasonable to post here.
lmn20

I’m currently atheist; my deconversion was quite the unremarkable event. September 2015 (I discovered HPMOR in February and RAZ then or in March), I was doing research on logical fallacies to better argue my points for a manga forum, when I came across Rational Wiki; for several of the logical fallacies, they tended to use creationists as examples. One thing lead to another (I was curious why Christianity was being so hated, and researched more on the site)

So you came to a pseudo-rationalist cite, (you will find the opinion of Rational Wiki around here ... (read more)

2satt
Plausibly people around here talk more smack about RW than about Christianity, but I'm doubtful that we actually think RW worse than Christianity!
3gjm
Here's my deconversion narrative; do let me know whether you find it stupid. I was a Christian for many years, but repeatedly found that the best arguments I heard against Christianity seemed stronger than either the best refutations of those arguments or the best arguments for Christianity, and was uncomfortably aware that I didn't have much in the way of actual evidence for the factual claims of the religion I followed. I also found that the most intellectually impressive people I came across were distinctly more often atheist than Christian (though of course there are very impressive people of all (ir)religious persuasions), which seemed not what I should expect if Christianity were right. Eventually -- this was not, so far as I was aware or can remember, prompted by any particular thing -- I decided that I needed to think matters through from scratch, or as near to that as possible. So, over the course of the next year and a half, I enumerated all the good reasons I could think of for believing or disbelieving, tried to assess the strength of each, kept track of it all in a lengthy document (it ended up, I think, being roughly the length of a short novel), and when I had gone into each in as much depth as I could convince myself it warranted I made numerical estimates of how much evidence it gave in what direction. Then I tallied it up. A naive multiplicative combination (as if each piece of evidence were independent of all the others) gave ... I forget right now, but maybe it was something like 10^10:1 evidence against Christianity. I tried to estimate how much "overlap" there might be, and concluded that however I sliced it I had much better reason to reject Christianity than to accept it. So I stopped being (or calling myself) a Christian. The above oversimplifies a bit. For instance, of course the real question isn't simply "Christianity or atheism?"; there are multiple varieties of both and plenty of other religions. I kept an eye out for any sign that
0entirelyuseless
Conversion narratives have equally stupid reasons for them. Bryan Caplan has a blog post where he talks about this. He notes that most people will never change their minds about anything important to them, and if they do, it will be for stupid reasons. The reason this happens, regardless of whether you call it conversion or deconversion, is that humans are far more interested in "fitting in" than in believing the truth about the world. As I have said many times before, there is no reason why people on LW would be exempt from this. Still, some people are just a little bit more interested in the truth than people in general are.
lmn40

subsidized egg freezing and childcare

Fertility is inversely correlated with income, the problem isn't that people don't have enough money, the problem is that in some sense they don't want children. I think a better approach would be cultural changes that make it high status to have lot's of children.

I don't think that is a correct summary of the essay at all, which is really pointing to a problem with how we think about coordination.

True, his point that Bayesians should be able to overcome these coordination problems by doing X, Y, and Z. Except neither him nor anyone else has should any interest in actually making an effort to do X, Y, and Z.

2Viliam
Seems to me the costs of having children are mostly (1) time, i.e. opportunity costs, and in USA (2) education. Education is probably expensive because although formally presented as a source of knowledge, it is actually a costly signal of... something (social class? willingness to sacrifice a lot in the name of "education"?)... and costly signals, by definition, are costly. If you would make a cheaper and more available option, some people would signal their superiority by not taking this option, and people who take this option would be perceived as not good enough. Opportunity costs of time are obviously higher for people with more and better options, such as smart people.
2Lumifer
Here you are, spoiling a nice meme with actual history.
lmn40

Unfortunately, analogies with Greek city states are wasted on me, because I don't have enough knowledge about them to make deep connections. For example, how specifically did Athens solve the problem of refugees bringing their own culture, sometimes incompatible with the original values of Athens?

Citizenship, and hence the right to vote, was restricted to people both whose parents were citizens.

lmn10

Or whichever wikipedia admin is watching those pages won't permit criticism.

4Viliam
In such case there is usually some debate on the Talk page, which I don't see here. At least it seems to me that on Wikipedia it is easier to censor information from the article than from the Talk page.
lmn00

Surely, the brain is important, but humans exist 200 000 years on earth, and civilisation exists only 5 000 years. So something changed not only in the brain.

And neural nets existed for ~500 million years.

lmn00

However, the likelihood ratio (P(B|A)/P(B|~A)), a.k.a., the quantity you actually care about when updating on new evidence, is symmetric.

lmn00

A kind of causation. X implies Y.

You seem to be confusing causation and "evidence for" implication. DON'T. Wet streets are evidence for rain, but when streets do not cause rain.

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