All of Luke Blanshard's Comments + Replies

One thing that has occurred to me is that a less dangerous variant may end up being more infectious in practice, as more infected people are either unaware they have it or are less incapacitated, and therefore are free to expose themselves to others more.  So this is one way that a less dangerous variant may overtake a more dangerous one, even if their inherent infectiousness is similar.

4mukashi
Yes. And the inverse could occur if most infections were occuring in hospitals. I think to recall (but don't quote me) that something like this happened at some point during the Spanish flu pandemic.

"Desperate"?  Seems unlikely.

This op-ed from the WSJ from a couple of months ago differentiates between "internal" immunity, apparently conferred well by the vaccines, and "mucosal" immunity, not so well.  So these positive tests among the vaccinated are largely confined to the nose and mouth, which limits their negative effect to the patient but still makes it possible to pass along to others.  Presumably this is what's driving the results you're skeptical of.

7Eliezer Yudkowsky
Well, huh.  I wonder if that makes it time to go look at RadVac some more.