Wasted opportunity to guarantee this post keeps getting holywar comments for the next hundred years.
This is pretty inspiring to me. Thank you for sharing.
The other day I was trying to think of information leaks that a competent conspiracy couldn't prevent, regarding this. I just thought of one small one: people will sometimes randomly die or have their homes raided. If the slavery is common, then sometimes the slaves will be discovered during these events. Even if the escapees wanted to silence the story out of shame, cops would probably gossip to the press.
So you can probably tally such events, crunch the numbers, and get a decent conspiracy-resistant estimate.
As a layman, I have not seen much unrealistic hype. I think the hype-level is just about right.
You should not bury such a good post in a shortform
Maybe it should be a game that everyone can play
Yeah I just wanted to check that nobody is giving away money before I go do the exact opposite thing I've been doing. I might try to tidy something up and post it first
Yes.
I do think I could put a good team together and make decent contributions quickly
I don't have a witty, insightful, neutral-sounding way to say this. The grantmakers should let the money flow. There are thousands of talented young safety researchers with decent ideas and exceptional minds, but they probably can't prove it to you. They only need one thing and it is money.
They will be 10x less productive in a big nonprofit and they certainly won't find the next big breakthrough there.
(Meanwhile, there are becoming much better ways to make money that don't involve any good deeds at all.)
My friends were a good deal sharper and more motivated at 18 than now at 25. None of them had any chance at getting grants back then, but they have an ok shot now. At 35, their resumes will be much better and their minds much duller. And it will be too late to shape AGI at all.
I can't find a good LW voice for this point but I feel this is incredibly important. Managers will find all the big nonprofits and eat their gooey centers and leave behind empty husks. They will do this quickly, within a couple years of each nonprofit being founded. The founders themselves will not be spared. Look how the writing of Altman or Demis changed over the years.
The funding situation needs to change very much and very quickly. If a man has an idea just give him money and don't ask questions. (No, I don't mean me.)