All of MathMage's Comments + Replies

It is not humility to note that extrapolating models unimaginably far beyond their normal operating ranges is a fraught business. Just because we can apply a certain utility approximation to our monkeysphere, or even a few orders of magnitude above our monkeysphere, doesn't mean the limiting behavior matches our approximation.

Good thing we use M/D/Y calendars here in the States, otherwise we'd have to wait for 3 January 2041. Or, come to think of it, 3 January 4159.

1Transfuturist
Or 3141 May 9.

I wonder how Harry would react to Death as written by Terry Pratchett?

2DanielLC
He'd be happy to find out that there really is an afterlife, although it doesn't sound like that good of one. He'd probably try to get as many people into Death's domain before they're supposed to die as possible.

Huh? Harry thought it was McGonagall. What in this chapter changes that?

3AlexSchell
The narration in the passage is extremely suggestive that someone other than McGonagall was at work. Dumbledore and Quirrell used to be the main candidate hypotheses for who it was, until this chapter basically confirmed it was Dumbledore.
5BrindIf
We do not know for sure. Here are the quotes: from chapter 6 from chapter 8 It doesn't look really like her style though.
MathMage630

Sad ending:

All the students agree to take on the position of Defense Professor de facto.

Next year, all the students die.

That's the "sadder" ending, which is precisely what EY promised.

Ch. 84:

"I shall not name any names," said the old witch. "But I shall tell a story, and see if it sounds familiar." Amelia Bones looked back down, turning to the next parchment. "Born 1927, entered Hogwarts in 1938, sorted into Slytherin, graduated 1945.

0Astazha
Also: Though we don't know for sure what McGonagal and the rest of the "confederacy" really believes.

Because it wasn't a throwaway anymore. His plan was to take over magical Britain as Voldemort, and have both the 'true' respect that comes from fear of what he can do to people and the pleasure of killing idiots whenever he wants. (And possibly to exterminate the Muggle world, but first things first.)

What do you mean? He narrated the whole sequence before the explosion, and fell to his knees at the moment Voldemort supposedly died, which is coincident with the explosion. I don't see a problem, let alone one that would be fixed by shifting the narrative back 20 seconds.

1GMHowe
Due to the finite speed of sound, the explosion would have had to occur approximately 20 seconds before they heard it. So if Voldemort's death was coincident with the explosion it would had to have happened about 20 seconds before Harry said it did.

BABA YAGA FAKED HER DEATH AND POSSESSED PERENELLE, TRUE STORY

Sorry, I think I've read too much Reddit today.

The interpretation where the Slytherins are playing to honor their fallen professor is much more straightforward.

It's not entirely clear how Hermione's troll/unicorn stuff interacts with the depletion of life-force necessary to fuel the Patronus. That said, she has a Horcrux, so at the end of the day it doesn't really matter. And if Harry can eventually destroy Azkaban, Hermione certainly can.

4Astazha
I'm skeptical. If dementors really do destroy your soul then having a horcrux may not be helpful against them. I'm a fan of taking V's wand down to the pit, in fact.
MathMage120

"For defeating the Dark Lord, we award Hermione...wait, what was the difference in score again?...four hundred and twenty points."

It's a fitting honour for the brave Professor Quirrell; no fair Slytherin would deny him this.

1Luke_A_Somers
That might, however, make him no longer retain his original form, so then he's seriously dead, and the horcruxes activate.
3Jost
Possibly true; although I’m not sure whether Voldemort’s spirit would still stay inside the jewel once that transfiguration is made permanent. (Less of a problem now, thanks to the obliviation, but I’d still prefer some oversight, just to be safe.)
0Bound_up
Both good points. While Harry does actually have the means to overcome that difficulty, I admit I hadn't thought of it in the first place. Up-votes for both.
1solipsist
Perhaps, but you have to get around why the villain doesn't destroy the growing threat while it's still weak.

Not really. Mind magic is one of Harry's top priorities, Quirrell is the first person he'd ask about Obliviate, Quirrell has no reason not to tell him, and Obliviate wasn't exactly the spell Harry used to defeat Quirrell in the first place. This outcome is about as likely in the world where Quirrell wasn't expecting to lose as in the world where he was, so it doesn't shift the priors substantially.

Voldemort still killed David Monroe, he just did it earlier than everyone thought he did. Chapter 108:

I had long ago taken my vengeance on David Monroe - he was an annoyance from my year in Slytherin - so I bethought to also steal his identity, and wipe out his family to make myself heir of his House.

Your other questions remain, though. Harry no longer killed Voldemort for good, and Hermione (apparently) has. This should be interesting. I predict this becomes an issue, confidence 70%; and, conditional on that, that Draco sides with Hermione again at a crucial moment, confidence 85%.

From 113:

This is the order in which the next acts shall be done. First Harry Potter shall be stunned, then his limbs severed and the wounds cauterized. Mr. Friendly and Mr. Honor will examine him for any trace of unusual magics. One of you shall shoot the boy many times with my Muggle weapon, and then as many of you as can shall strike him with the Killing Curse. Only then will Mr. Grim crush his skull and brains with the mundane substance of a tombstone.

So it was planned, but never executed. All other references to the gun have it in Voldemort's hand.

Chapter 8:

"No," Hermione said. "Who told you about me? "

"Professor McGonagall and I believe I see why. Do you have an eidetic memory, Hermione?"

0Astazha
Ah yes, thanks.

Unless Dumbledore comes back. Even if he doesn't, Harry has made little effort to prevent people from suspecting that Quirrell was connected to Voldemort.

1SilentCal
Hmm... the people who might suspect this are probably few enough to address individually. Did you have anyone in mind who's likely to go public?

I would say at least 95% certainty that there's more than wrapup left, but it sounds like handing out prophecies is pretty far down on the list of additional things to cover.

2WalterL
I have a sort of uber-theory that's been hanging over me since Harry heard the whisper to meet Hermione Granger on the train, since he felt irrationally certain that Magic was real back in the very first chapters. This theory is that Future!Harry, or a friend, Future!Hermione is the one who most fits the bill, is God. Or Root on the Source Of Magic. The things that are inexplicable, that certainty, those prophecies, are just his the future self protecting its timeline, as it remembers doing, just like Harry writing "Don't mess with time" on his paper. If so, they'll sucessfully take control of reality, and discover that their uber-Time

The Blood-Cooling Charm was invented for the story specifically to offer a means of murder that didn't set off the wards until the point of death; furthermore, if a professor (Quirrell) cast it, the wards wouldn't trigger anyway.

4Subbak
Well, yes, but it had to be believable that Hermione had cast it, therefore we can assume that it would not have triggered the wards even if Quirrel had not cast it.

Over/under on there being such entities at all? It's certainly possible that our current understanding of where prophecies come from is incomplete, but the story doesn't seem to have set it up as particularly likely.

2WalterL
Ok, 5 chapters left, I have a , lets call it 70% surety that there is more left than wrapup. 1-3 chapters would be enough for that. I think there will also be a flashforward to whatever the big triumph is. Ending Death, optimizing the world, colonizing space, gaining Root on the Source of Magic, which is stored in the Mirror...

He doesn't have to be persuaded to be good, he just has to be persuaded to let Harry out of the box. If he lets Harry out of the box for non-good reasons, that still counts.

Isn't Voldemort's body going to die in its Transfigured form? I assume Harry has a way around that, and he has a reasonably long time frame to implement a solution (at least compared to the 60 seconds he had to work with just now), but that dangling loose end is gnawing at me.

1jkadlubo
It's the same as with Hermione's body and the unicorns. They are stones as long as they are Transfigured. When Transfiguration stops, they will soon suffer. That's why Harry kept Hermione's body and now thinks about sustaining the Transfiguration of Voldemort all the time - he wants them to stay Transfigured until their state can be helped. He's kind of frozen now.
3MarkusRamikin
If I understand correctly, you only suffer from transfiguring yourself or parts of yourself after returning to your original form, after the transfiguration stops being sustained and wears off. Bolding mine. The Stone solves that. Assuming Harry grabbed it, which seems like a no brainer but I don't think was ever explicitely mentioned that he did. EDIT: Aha, it was edited in just now.

Although it sounds persuasive to us, to Voldemort this would sound like exactly the sort of 'intelligent idiocy' that would only solidify his belief that Harry has to be killed right away.

0Nick_Roy
Voldemort would be skeptical, yes, but he would also be interested, because "6. It is impossible to tell lies in Parseltongue" and because all this speech has to do is raise the risk enough that it makes more sense to stop and gather more information before killing Harry, thus it "allow[s] Harry to evade immediate death". What do you think would improve the believability?

Because it is unlikely that Harry would have precommitted to blowing himself up as a general emergency countermeasure.

Obvious potentially useful moves:

  • Buy time with discussion of secret powers (partial Transfiguration and true Patronus), since we're optimizing primarily for surviving the immediate situation and not for preventing Voldemort from knowing useful powers.

  • Partially Transfigure himself in some useful way, depending on subsequent access to PStone to avoid T. sickness.

  • Cast Patronus centered on himself to blind and to block AKs. (Problem: doesn't block other curses. But if he moves, Death Eaters might fire at the shiny thing instead of at him.)

  • Un-Transfigu

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1Bugmaster
Why not ? I mean, yeah, obviously Harry would want to survive; but if there was some way to take out Voldemort while also taking out himself (and possibly Hermione), and there was nothing better that Harry could come up with in 60 seconds; then the logical course of action would be to go ahead and do that.

At present, McGonagall has no options because she doesn't know what's going on. In order for your question "What can McGonagall do?" to even make sense, we must first postulate that Harry/Hermione get out of this situation and that one of them is able to contact McGonagall while evading control or surveillance. Even if that is resolved without obviating your reason for considering McGonagall (that Harry is in an impossible situation), it's not clear that McGonagall could:

  • Persuade enough Muggles to take her seriously

  • Anticipate Voldemort's in

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0skeptical_lurker
Perhaps Harry could will a patronus to take an extremely small form? Doable, given enough time. If she is morally flexible enough, she could simply memory charm those at the top of the command chain, but... this isn't the sort of thing I'd imagine her doing. This is a problem. Unless Harry explains it to her, I don't think she will understand just how bad the situation is. I'd seek advice from Muggleborns. But actually, in canon the muggle prime minister at least knows about the existence of wizards. I wonder if the muggles already have a (top secret) plan in place for what to do if wizards attack them? This is the big problem.

I am dubious that "seeking help from the Muggles" is as straightforward as you seem to think it is.

0skeptical_lurker
I didn't say it would be easy, but what other option does she have?
0jefftk
Can't you Imperious a few heads of state? (Though probably not, or someone would have done it, though McGonagall may be aware of the details of the restrictions.)
3TobyBartels
You mean, Voldemort will be defeated by the power he knows: Nott? (Don't vote me up, this has been suggested here before.)

Native speaker--it's not wrong, but it is somewhat awkward. That said, the whole excerpt is redundant, so I'd be making more extensive changes than replacing "insofar as" with something else if I were editing. (Also: "He tried not to shiver in the falling night temperatures, for...it was getting colder.")

1Astazha
And I could be wrong, of course, but if I am I have no idea why Harry is alive.

And someone did figure it out; congrats to SilentCal.

EDIT: On the other hand, as Reddit is eager to point out, the curse Riddle invoked on his doubles was not exactly foreseeable.

9SilentCal
I was going on the Parseltongue-promise from ch. 105: I had taken this to mean Voldemort had precommitted to not killing Harry without tricking him first.

Taking a short break from trying to figure out just what is going on...how do y'all think Hermione would feel if, assuming no levels of deception, she woke up to this scene?

8DanArmak
"Hi Hermione!" said Harry. "You remember the troll killing you, right? I swore a mighty oath to bring you back to life. To fulfill it I consulted with the world's foremost immortality expert. I'd like you to meet Dr. Tom Riddle."
0ChristianKl
Heavily disoriented.
2linkhyrule5
Extremely confused. Worried for Harry, worried for Harry's morality, which immediately leads into "wait what exactly did they do to me*"?

I don't think that's the same gun.

And yeah, that line tripped my wires as well, but I think there are two more likely candidates for concealment than lack of intent to kill:

-Lack of ability to kill

-Whether there is a Headmaster of Hogwarts now (one can imagine a magically designated Interim Headmaster being immediately instated for the purpose of the wards)

1DanArmak
The old Headmaster isn't dead, just unreachable. It may be that noone has the access to the wards needed to become the new Headmaster.

He already did that. After he absorbed the lesson about being nice. So I still don't see how being nice explains away these errors.

0Vaniver
In an alternate universe that no longer exists. (That is, Ch. 109 is different now.) I do agree that a retcon is involved makes that less probable. But in the intervening minutes I've thought of a better explanation: Voldemort is thinking about a new and difficult subject, and that's consuming enough of his attention that he is making general errors. Overall, the plausibility relative to the alternate theories--that Voldemort is pretending to lose--is indeed low. But given the fearsomeness of an intelligent Dark Lord, basically the only hope that Harry has is somehow surprising Voldemort, and this surprise seems more plausible than a partial transfiguration surprise.
MathMage160

Not quite an either/or--perhaps he's also testing the immortality mechanisms he will use on himself. It hadn't occurred to me, but he may not be as confident as he pretends to be about how the Stone and the troll/unicorn/Horcrux spells will interact. And it closely parallels his previous failure to test his Horcrux system.

3lerjj
Thanks for pointing out the false dilemma. I'm wondering whether he ever intended to kill Harry, specifically as to whether that gun is loaded. Does anyone remember anything in Parseltongue which stated explicit intent to kill? I note that this line is not in Parseltonge: The previous dialogue is in Parseltongue, and the dialogue ends after this. I'll go have a more critical look at earlier chapters but I'm predicting the gun in Harry's hand will go 'click'. EDIT: my mistake, Harry brought his own gun. I have a strong sense of literary disbelief that Harry managed to shoot Voldemort while his horcruxes were so conveniently down. If the gun is not suspect, then back up hypotheses are: Voldemort can deflect bullets OR Voldemort's horcruxes were in fact still working.

Imagine that Eliezer has 100 possible ways to complete this puzzle. 25% means that the combined weight of all the other possibilities outweighs the one I've outlined, but I am still privileging the one significantly over a typical possibility. (However, lerjj has convinced me that I was most likely wrong to do so.)

0MarkusRamikin
Right. What I was thinking, except for some reason I had a complete block on putting that thought into words. Thanks.

Hm. I did not properly account for that. Specifying "girl-child friend's counsel and restraint" and "that she is a part of this world for you to care about" is definitive in that Voldemort intends to restore Hermione as Hermione. For my theory to work, this would have to be a long-term gambit that Harry has made immediate; but this would not explain why Voldemort has made so many tactical, i.e. short-term, errors. So I agree this is strong evidence against my prediction. New confidence: 1%.

EDIT: If someone can explain how to add strikethrough to my original confidence, that would be helpful.

1linkhyrule5
You can retract your entire post in the bottom-right corner.

This would explain mistakes particular to being nice, like fortifying Hermione's body first, but it does not explain more general errors like letting Harry keep his wand and pouch.

0Vaniver
"Hey, long term ally! I'm going to make your friend immortal because I'm a guy that's profitable to work with! But first strip naked and give me your wand."
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