All of Michael Michalchik's Comments + Replies

OC ACXLW Meetup #92 – ACX Everywhere Edition
 Saturday, April 5, 2025 | 2:00 – 5:00 PM
 Location: 1970 Port Laurent Place, Newport Beach, CA 92660
 Host: Michael Michalchik – (michaelmichalchik@gmail.com | (949) 375-2045)

 


 

Welcome!

Hello, everyone! We’re excited to invite you to a special ACX Everywhere gathering, where we’ll explore two of Scott Alexander’s most influential and widely discussed essays: “Meditations on Moloch” and “I Can Tolerate Anything Except the Outgroup.” Whether you’re brand new to these pieces or ... (read more)

ACXLW Longevity (special guest speaker) 9/2/23

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wu69N0x-dvEN3NImEDCEZfd0MOeCQe6cS4AolAdiCuc/edit?usp=sharing



 

Hello Folks!

We are excited to announce the 41st Orange County ACX/LW meetup, happening this Saturday and most Saturdays thereafter.


 

Host: Michael Michalchik


 

Email: michaelmichalchik@gmail.com (For questions or requests)

Location: 1970 Port Laurent Place 

(949) 375-2045

Date: Saturday, Sept 2, 2023

Time: 2 PM


 

This Saturday we are fortunate to have a special guest speaker, Professor Mich... (read more)

Conversation Starter Readings:
Suggested readings for this week are these summaries. These readings are optional, but if you do them, think about what you find interesting, surprising, useful, questionable, vexing, or exciting.  

1) Collapse of civilization (summaries of The collapse of complex civilizations)

Philosophical Disquisitions: The Collapse of Complex Societies: A Primer on Tainter's Theory

https://philosophicaldisquisitions.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-collapse-of-complex-societies_1.html


 

SSC Book review of the same book.

Your Book Review:... (read more)

ACXLW Meetup in the park this Saturday Sept 17 2022


 

Hello folks! 


 

I am glad to announce the Fifth of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. The first few meetings were great (approximately 8 to 10 people), and I hope to see many of you at this one. Snacks will be available.


 

Saturday, 9/10/22, 2 pm

1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660

The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse

33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152

https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39

Plus code 8554J48R+WF... (read more)

Hello folks! 


*On Rainy days, we may retreat to my house. Contact me directly for info.


 

I am glad to announce the fourth of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. The first few meetings were great, and I hope to see many of you at this one. 

Saturday, 9/10/22, 2 pm

1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660

The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse

33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39

Plus code 8554J48R+WFJ

Contact me, Michael, at michaelmic... (read more)

Hello folks! 


 

I am glad to announce the third of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. The first meeting was great, and I hope to see many of you at this one. 

Saturday, 9/3/22, 2 pm

1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660

The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse

33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39

Plus code 8554J48R+WFJ

Contact me, Michael, at michaelmichalchik+acxlw@gmail.com with questions or requests.

 

Activities (all activiti... (read more)

Hello folks! 


 

I am glad to announce the second of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. Note this week, we will meet at 3:30, not 2. The first meeting was great, and I hope to see many of you at this one. Based on the first meeting, I chose two popular topics to prompt future conversation and activities. 

 

Saturday, 8/27/22, 3:30 pm

1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660

The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse

33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/Wm... (read more)

I get the error, link permanently deleted when I try to follow that link. Is this just a random error or has it been permanently deleted? Does it exist somewhere else or has the document been superseded by another document?

2Kaj_Sotala
I just checked and it works for me. The Wayback Machine also has a copy.

" There can't be too many things that reduce the expected value of the future by 10%; if there were, there would be no expected value left. "

This is the argument from consequences fallacy. There may be many things that could destroy the future with high probability and we are simply doomed BUT the more interesting scenario and a much better working assumption is that there potentially dangerous things that are likely to destroy the future IF we don't seek to understand them and try to correct them by concerted effort as opposed to continuing on as we do now with teh level of effort and concern we have now.

2Rohin Shah
See this response.

It seems to me that one of the trickier parts of this issue is that you don't know what you don't know. You've got the places in your emotional landscape that you're used to visiting, and that's where your attention naturally goes when you try to do a self-assessment. Reminds me a bit of something I learned in adolescence that when you're playing hide and seek, people are really bad at remembering to look up; I've even had a friend that eluded police chasing him in the park by simply getting out of immediate few and then climbing up into the foliage of a t

... (read more)

Is this an active and ongoing meeting?

1mingyuan
No, not that I know of.