All of Michael Townsend's Comments + Replies
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I think it's possible the competence of government in a given domain is fairly arbitrary/contingent (with its difficulty being a factor among many others). If true, instead of looking at domains similar to AGI-risk as a reference class, it'd be better to analyse which factors tend to make government more/less competent in general, and use that to inform policy development/advocacy addressing AGI risk.
Interesting post! I used to play poker professionally, and think that this post is correct in identifying limitations what people assume poker is primarily valuable for teaching (i.e., expected-value reasoning under uncertainty, and game theory) but misses what I think is most valuable about playing poker.
I feel fairly confident that within ~24 hours or so, I would be able to teach anyone enough strategy to, in principle, be a winning player who could maybe rack up $25 USD an hour at a typical US casino. But I don't think I could teach them the emotional c... (read more)