All of MrHen's Comments + Replies

MrHen20

I don't understand the point of this post. I mean, I understand its points, but why is this post here? Is it trying to point out that: (a) intent and reality are not always -- and usually aren't -- entangled? (b) Reality happened and our little XML-style purpose tags are added post fact?

It seems odd to spend so much time saying, "Humans reproduced successfully. Anger exists in humans." If the anger part is correlated to the reproduction part it seems fair to ask, "Why did anger help reproduction?" This is a different question than, &quo... (read more)

3JGWeissman
Evolutionionary psychology is related to the study of cognitive biases, so being able to reason about it well is important. It is also easily observable that people make the mistakes this post warns against. When discussing goal systems and terminal values, people with a confused view of evolutionary psychology tend to suggest that we should try to maximize inclusive genetic fitness, and this post discusses the confusion which leads to that common mistake. And Eliezer has also drawn examples from computer science, I don't think is favoring evolutionary psychology. It is not surprising that some posts focus on a subtopic or rationality a specific domain of its application.
5wedrifid
It would be odd if people didn't get confused about this excessively.
MrHen00

You wrote that disbelieving in God is not going to turn someone into a murderer because there are still plenty of good reasons to not be a murderer.

This was intended to be a counter example -- not a description of how all people work. I can imagine that someone out there would very much become a murderer if they lost religion.

...but I don't see why theu would be afraid of losing one system other than because they are afraid they will lose their morality (and become murderers). What is the other reason for being afraid?

Introspection is scary. Dismant... (read more)

MrHen20

Would you be willing to summarize your view in a couple sentences, even if doing so would result in a caricature of your position? The main idea I drew from your comment is that when we think about how murder is immoral, this feels like something different than just that murder is not in our best interest (even after folding in that we have self-interests in being altruistic).

Someone making a choice to do X is not necessarily making this choice for moral reasons. If (a) they are doing X for moral reasons and (b) you suddenly take away those moral reason... (read more)

0byrnema
You wrote that disbelieving in God is not going to turn someone into a murderer because there are still plenty of good reasons to not be a murderer. And your point was that there is a back-up system while they are rebuilding their morality. But I don't think this back up system is enough or that their morality will necessarily fully recover. ---------------------------------------- Anyway, I see now your model regarding two separate systems prescribing overlapping behaviors that to some extent would compensate for the other...but I don't see why theu would be afraid of losing one system other than because they are afraid they will lose their morality (and become murderers). What is the other reason for being afraid? I agree. I would guess these are exploring the development of moral intuitions in different directions with different emphasis. I guess each religion is the result of the developed moral intuitions of some group of thinkers, if not just one person, and if their versions of the God-source morality ring true to more people that religion will grow. In tiny towns one pastor can influence a bunch of people to buy into their version through charisma, but that religion will outlast them only if their version teaches itself to some extent thereafter without too much alteration.
MrHen10

Which is to say: The very fact that a religious person would be afraid of God withdrawing Its threat to punish them for committing murder, shows that they have a revulsion of murder which is independent of whether God punishes murder or not. If they had no sense that murder was wrong independently of divine retribution, the prospect of God not punishing murder would be no more existentially horrifying than the prospect of God not punishing sneezing.

If someone built a complicated morality system around the morality of God and suddenly changed it, they ... (read more)

3byrnema
Would you be willing to summarize your view in a couple sentences, even if doing so would result in a caricature of your position? The main idea I drew from your comment is that when we think about how murder is immoral, this feels like something different than just that murder is not in our best interest (even after folding in that we have self-interests in being altruistic). Another way of putting this idea is that while I currently have no motive to murder --- you wrote: sometimes people are motivated to murder. Presumably I could be motivated to murder, and in that case, why shouldn't I? If there was a higher moral authority, I might find that the moral authority compelling enough to tip things in favor of not murdering. However, without that moral authority I'm free after all. I think the effects of the absence of a moral authority is more obvious in more mundane aspects of life, especially in cases where you are making a choice and one choice is not obviously more moral. Perhaps it is a complicated choice and there are positive and negative moral consequences with either choice. In these cases, I feel that there are a couple 'moral compasses' working simultaneously. Some of them I would describe as more immediate and pragmatic, some of them are more deontological. There is one which feels quite distinctly different, which may actually point to an action that is not immediately intuitively moral but which nevertheless feels most like the right choice. Religious training causes us to recognize this different compass, call it "God", and trust in it. By studying religious texts that identify this compass and how it is different (mostly through examples) atheists articulate what is special about this compass and determine (individually, I suppose) if this compass is trustworthy and superior to the others. There are spectacular examples of religious people following a terrible wrong compass they've mistaken for God's (mostly in novels that I've read) but on the
MrHen10

Eh. I guess I don't see a problem with how the language works here. "Correction as question" probably takes longer but if people are getting confused by the process then I consider that a weakness of the particular implementation.

For example:

  • Each of the apples are green.
  • Should "each" be used with "are" or "is"? As in, "Each of the apples is green."

Your challenge is that this is now ambiguous with regards to whether or not I know the answer. Except, the point isn't what I know. The point is that there i... (read more)

MrHen00

Oh, okay. I guess my form of "correction as question" is more like:

Is correct?

1MixedNuts
Same problem! If "No, you're wrong, Swedish isn't the official language of Sweden." should be phrased as "Is it correct that Swedish is the official language of Sweden?", then what do you say when you vaguely remember something about Swedish not being the official language of Sweden but aren't sure and think the other person is likely to know?
MrHen10

Also tangential: Have you tried simply getting up to get another drink or go to the bathroom? Chances are high that (a) others will join you (b) the conversation will experience a natural segue and/or (c) the people who still care about the subject will stay behind to continue on their own.

Just a thought. I don't really know what environment you were referring to.

MrHen00

That's annoying. What do you do if you're genuinely unsure if they're making a specific mistake and want to know?

How does phrasing a correction as a question limit your options? I don't understand how the specific mistake part ties into the correction as question part.

1MixedNuts
If "You're making at ." is rude and you should say "Hmm, can you explain some more? It looks like it might be making , but I'm not sure.", what should you say when you mean the latter?
MrHen00

I immediately took the title to imply both meanings and assumed it was deliberate. I did not think this was all that terribly boastful. So... I guess I agree halfway?

MrHen40

I selfishly voted you up because this is what I want to hear. ;)

MrHen30

Yes, that is what I meant. I guess I should have put that in the post somewhere... I edited it in.

MrHen10

Aha! Thank you much! I figured something was up. :) I won't bother copying this over there, however.

Also, apparently there are some spammers about.

MrHen50

I used to post here on LessWrong and left for various reasons. Someone recognized my name earlier today from my activity here and I just so happened to have thought of LessWrong during a conversation I had with a friend of mine. The double hit was enough to make me curious.

So how's it going? I am just stopping by to say a quick, "Hello." It seems that Open Threads are no longer the way things work but I didn't notice anything else relevant in the Recent Posts. The community seems to be alive and thriving. Congratulations. :)

3Cyan
LW now has a discussion section that serves as a permanent open thread. The link is at the top right, next to the link to the wiki.
MrHen70

If a theist is a good person, that theist already is a good person, whether God is real or not.

The relevant question is whether the good person would remain good after they discover God is not real. My hunch is that most people who are good would stay that way.

But I like this point:

Whatever the truth is, the hypothetical frightened father - and the very real frightened theists, such as yourself - already are living under whatever conditions actually hold.

And I will take it with me.

6RobinZ
It's better than a hunch - it's backed up experimentally. I think it actually comes down to the same logical idea of The Bottom Line, the modus tollens: if the bottom line is formed through good processes, then it often remains strong even when the text above it is created through other means. You (or, I suppose, I) could write an essay on all the cases where it is what was written above the bottom line that was garbage. I heard that here, ascribed to Eugene Gendlin. It is a valuable insight, I think.
MrHen30

Not so much ideas as things that I think would be helpful but will be buried in obscurity at the level I am.

That being said, this is helped more by learning the basics through reading the sequences than playing status games. My thoughts on status should be taken with the clarification that I am primarily seeking to learn and am thinking about status because I find it interesting.

If I can take my comments and change my behavior so as to be looking forward and increase my status without hampering my ability to learn... why shouldn't I? When I look at the var... (read more)

MrHen50

Experience can provide an excellent dummy check to make sure there isn't an obvious counter-argument or flaw in something that you are unable to see because you haven't seen it yet. There is much to be said from simply going out there and trying the theory; the results of trying are experience. When you can translate your experience into Bayesian terms you have succeeded.

I have no problem with deferring to someone who has more experience than I do as long as I trust their methodology. Once that trust is gone I start doubting the truth of their experience. ... (read more)

MrHen50

There is a slight difference between being a top contributor and being famous as I am mentioning it here.

My current karma experiment is deliberately not posting comments I think are worth less than 2 karma unless I have a compelling reason to do so (such as asking for help or information). My goal is to increase the quality of my comments to the point that someone could think, "What has MrHen posted recently?" and the answer is more impressive than a series of one-liners and nitpicky comments.

Ideally, this will increase the weight of my words to ... (read more)

0Document
Have you tried Wei Dai's script?
3NancyLebovitz
Why do you want more status? Do you have ideas that you think are good but won't be heard unless you're more respected?
MrHen00

Yeah, I was way off. I didn't think people would be that interested in karma theory. I think the big oops was the first bullet point.

MrHen80

The atoms of a screwdriver don't have tiny little XML tags inside describing their "objective" purpose. The designer had something in mind, yes, but that's not the same as what happens in the real world. If you forgot that the designer is a separate entity from the designed thing, you might think, "The purpose of the screwdriver is to drive screws" - as though this were an explicit property of the screwdriver itself, rather than a property of the designer's state of mind. You might be surprised that the screwdriver didn't reconfigur

... (read more)
MrHen10

What is the point of this post? I seem to have missed it entirely. Can anyone help me out?

The mirror challenge for decision theory is seeing which option a choice criterion really endorses. If your stated moral principles call for you to provide laptops to everyone, does that really endorse buying a $1 million gem-studded laptop for yourself, or spending the same money on shipping 5000 OLPCs?

Is the point that predicting the end result of particular criterion is difficult because bias gets in the way? And, because it is difficult, start small with stuf... (read more)

5thomblake
Seems about right. Note: "To train ourselves to see clearly, we need simple practice cases."
MrHen270

As a counterpoint, my highest rated comments are huge walls of text. This could be because (a) I don't make a lot of jokes or (b) I make crappy jokes or (c) people like my walls of text more than the typical wall of text or (d) something else.

I keep an eye on my karma and have noticed these things that I believe are related to your post:

  • Talking about the karma system has fallen out of favor. I think people are getting tired of it.

  • Asking why something was downvoted usually brings more upvotes unless you really, really deserved the downvotes. This latter

... (read more)
3Morendil
This in itself strikes me as a sufficient incentive to aim at getting into the "Top contributors" list. My "return on time investement" for participating in LW is what I learn (often tangentially) from getting into interesting conversations. The lower my chance of being ignored, the higher my expected utility from any contribution to LW.
0Lightwave
You wrote this (now high-rated) wall of text just to further prove your point, didn't you?
4prase
This analysis looks brilliant, but the impression is sort of spoiled by the fact that the prediction of karma gain failed. It is even close to self-referential paradoxes: comment reading "This comment will get X karma" should be upvoted because of its precise prediction when it actually has X karma, but upvoting makes the precision worse and may attract later downvotes.
6mattnewport
There also appears to be a non-linear effect where posts that reach a certain threshold of votes get even more votes - like there's some kind of 80/20 power law at work. I can think of a number of possible explanations for that phenomenon but it would be interesting to see if the data backs up my impression first. I predict that the Gini coefficient for comment karma is > 0.3. Does anyone know a better way to obtain the data than a web scraper? ETA: I'm referring to the Gini coefficient for individual comments' karma rather than for individual commenters'. ETA2: How to handle negative karma? I'd suggest ignoring negative scoring posts but other suggestions welcome.
MrHen50

Darwinian Evolution is irrelevant to the whole discussion.

I think I understand the point you are trying to make with this. The questions I have in response are these:

  • When does Darwiniain Evolution become relevant for the discussion of life as we know it?
  • Where does your theory of supernatural creation stop and natural cause and effect take over?
  • If I were able to study, examine, and see the original supernatural creation of life, would I be able to explain it naturally? In other words, did the supernatural creator use already existing natural componen
... (read more)
MrHen30

Rearranging the cards in a deck has no statistical consequence. Cheating on your spouse significantly alters the odds of certain things happening.

If you add the restriction that there are no consequences, there wouldn't really be much point in doing it because its not like you get sex as a result. That would be a consequence.

The idea that something immoral shouldn't be immoral if no one catches you and nothing bad happens as a result is an open problem as far as I know. Most people don't like such an idea but I hear the debate surface from time to time. (U... (read more)

MrHen00

Taking two seconds to click on the Collapse Postulate link it appears that the article was originally posted on Overcoming Bias. Also, it appears to be part of a larger sequence on quantum mechanics.

I haven't read that sequence or that article so I cannot compare them to yours, but all of those links in the block you quoted presumably enhance the discussion to make the conclusion more obvious. Your article has one link.

MrHen20

Good point. I will do this in the future.

MrHen50

EDIT: For historical purposes, this comment reported two typos that have since been fixed. I was intending to delete this comment when they were fixed but a valuable discussion occurred below.

9Hook
As a suggestion, maybe typos that have no substantial impact on readability should be communicated to the author through a direct message rather than a public comment.
MrHen50

I'd suppose that the heuristic is along the lines of the following: Say there's an agreed-upon fair procedure for deciding who gets something, and then someone changes that procedure, and someone other than you ends up benefiting. Then it's unfair, and what's yours has probably been taken.

Everything else you've said makes sense, but I think the heuristic here is way off. Firstly, they object before the results have been produced, so the benefit is unknown. Second, the assumption of an agreed upon procedure is only really valid in the poker example. Othe... (read more)

MrHen50

I loved that book. I still have moments when I pull some random picture from that book out of my memory to describe how an object works.

EDIT: Apparently the book is on Google.

MrHen150

She was talking to students at Harvard.

MrHen10

Okay. Nothing I have will help you. My problems are generally OCD based procrastination loops or modifying bad habits and rituals. Solutions to these assume impulses to do things.

I have nothing that would provide you with impulses to do.

All of my interpretations of "I can't do X" assume what I mean when I tell myself I can't do X.

Sorry. If I were actually there I could probably come up with something but I highly doubt I would be able to "see" you well enough through text to be able to find a relevant answer.

MrHen30

Possible solutions:

  • Increase the amount of effort it takes to do the low-effort things you are trying to avoid. For instance, it isn't terribly hard to set your internet on a timer so it automatically shuts off from 1 - 3pm. While it isn't terribly hard to turn it back on, if you can scrounge up the effort to turn it back on you may be able to put that effort into something else.

  • Decrease the amount of effort it takes to do the high-effort things you are trying to accomplish. Paying bills, for instance, can be done online and streamlined. Family and frie

... (read more)
3MixedNuts
I've tried all that (they're on LW already). * That wouldn't work. I do these things by default, because I can't do the things I want. I don't even have a problem with standard akrasia anymore, because I immediately act on any impulse I have to do something, given how rare they are. Also, I can expend willpower do stop doing something, whereas "I need to do this but I can't" seems impervious to it, at least in the amounts I have. * There are plenty of things to be done here, but they're too hard to bootstrap. The easy ones helped somewhat. * That helped me most. In the grey area between things I can do and things I can't (currently, cleaning, homework, most phone calls), pressure helps. But no amount of ass-kicking has made me do the things I've been trying to do for a while.
MrHen10

That works for me. I am not convinced that the rule-changing heuristic was the cause but I think you have defended your position adequately.

MrHen30

A digression: But hopefully at this point, you'll realize the difference between the frequentist and Bayesian instincts in this situation. [...]

Yep. This really is a digression which is why I hadn't brought up another interesting example with the same group of friends:

One of my friends dealt hearts in a manner of giving each player a pack of three cards, the next player a pack of three cards and so on. The amount of cards being dealt were the same but we all complained that this actually affected the game because shuffling isn't truly random and it wa

... (read more)
6thomblake
On a tangent, myself and friends always pick the initial draw of cards using no particular method when playing Munchkin, to emphasize that we aren't supposed to be taking this very seriously. I favor snatching a card off the deck just as someone else was reaching for it.
MrHen10

I would say that they impement the rule-changing-heuristic, which is not automatically thought of as an instance of the cheater-heuristic, even if it evolved from it. Changing the rules makes people feeling unsafe, people who do it without good reason are considered dangerous, but not automatically cheaters.

This behavior is repeated in scenarios where the rules are not being changed or there aren't "rules" in the sense of a game and its rules. These examples are significantly fuzzier which is why I chose the poker example.

The lottery ticket ex... (read more)

prase120

Why wouldn't the complaint then take the form of, "You broke the rules! Stop it!"?

Because people aren't good at telling their actual reason for disagreement. I suspect that they are aware that the particular rule is arbitrary and doesn't influence the game, and almost everybody agrees that blindly following the rules is not a good idea. So "you broke the rules" doesn't sound as a good justification. "You have influenced the outcome", on the other hand, does sound like a good justification, even if it is irrelevant.

The lotte... (read more)

MrHen00

Why can I override mine? What makes me different from my friends? The answer isn't knowledge of math or probabilities.

2Nick_Tarleton
I really don't know. Unusual mental architecture, like high reflectivity or 'stronger' deliberative relative to non-deliberative motivation? Low paranoia? High trust in logical argument?
MrHen30

What do you do when you aren't doing anything?

EDIT: More questions as you answer these questions. Too many questions at once is too much effort. I am taking you dead seriously so please don't be offended if I severely underestimate your ability.

3MixedNuts
I keep doing something that doesn't require much effort, out of inertia; typically, reading, browsing the web, listening to the radio, washing a dish. Or I just sit or lie there letting my mind wander and periodically trying to get myself to start doing something. If I'm trying to do something that requires thinking (typically homework) when my brain stops working, I keep doing it but I can't make much progress.
MrHen30

I don't know how to respond to this. I feel like I have addressed all of these points elsewhere in the comments.

A summary:

  • The poker game is an example. There are more examples involving things with less obvious rules.
  • My reputation matters in the sense that they know wasn't trying to cheat. As such, when pestered for an answer they are not secretly thinking, "Cheater." This should imply that they are avoiding the cheater-heuristic or are unaware that they are using the cheater-heuristic.
  • I confronted my friends and asked for a reasonable answer
... (read more)
1prase
Depends, of course, on what exactly you would say and how much unpleasant the writing is for you. I would say that they impement the rule-changing-heuristic, which is not automatically thought of as an instance of the cheater-heuristic, even if it evolved from it. Changing the rules makes people feeling unsafe, people who do it without good reason are considered dangerous, but not automatically cheaters. EDIT: And also, from your description it seems that you have deliberately broken a rule without giving any reason for that. It is suspicious.
7Nick_Tarleton
The System 1 suspicion-detector would be less effective if System 2 could override it, since System 2 can be manipulated. (Another possibility may be loss aversion, making any change unattractive that guarantees a different outcome without changing the expected value. (I see hugh already mentioned this.) A third, seemingly less likely, possibility is intuitive 'belief' in the agency of the cards, which is somehow being undesirably thwarted by changing the ritual.)
MrHen20

I am more likely to be considered OCD than any of my friends in the example. I don't care if you cut the deck.

MrHen40

But the upshot is that they were irrational as a side effect of usually rational heuristics.

So, when I pester them for a rational reason, why do they keep giving an answer that is irrational for this situation?

I can understand your answer if the scenario was more like:

"Hey! Don't do that!"
"But it doesn't matter. See?"
"Oh. Well, okay. But don't do it anyway because..."

And then they mention your heuristic. They didn't do anything like this. They explicitly understood that nothing was changing in the probabilities and they e... (read more)

5orthonormal
Because human beings often first have a reaction based on an evolved, unconscious heuristic, and only later form a conscious rationalization about it, which can end up looking irrational if you ask the right questions (e.g. the standard reactions to the incest thought experiment there). So, yes, they were probably unaware of the heuristic they were actually using. I'd suppose that the heuristic is along the lines of the following: Say there's an agreed-upon fair procedure for deciding who gets something, and then someone changes that procedure, and someone other than you ends up benefiting. Then it's unfair, and what's yours has probably been taken. Given that rigorous probability theory didn't emerge until the later stages of human civilization, there's not much room for an additional heuristic saying "unless it doesn't change the odds" to have evolved; indeed, all of the agreed-upon random ways of selecting things (that I've ever heard of) work by obvious symmetry of chances rather than by abstract equality of odds†, and most of the times someone intentionally changed the process, they were probably in fact hoping to cheat the odds. † Thought experiment: we have to decide a binary disagreement by chance, and instead of flipping a coin or playing Rock-Paper-Scissors, I suggest we do the following: First, you roll a 6-sided die, and if it's a 1 or 2 you win. Otherwise, I roll a 12-sided die, and if it's 1 through 9 I win, and if it's 10 through 12 you win. Now compute the odds (50-50, unless I made a dumb mistake), and then actually try it (in real life) with non-negligible stakes. I predict that you'll feel slightly more uneasy about the experience than you would be flipping a coin.
6AdeleneDawner
I suspect it starts with something like "in the context of a game or other competition, if my opponent does something unexpected, and I don't understand why, it's probably bad news for me", with an emotional response of suspicion. Then when your explanation is about why shuffling the cards is neutral rather than being about why you did something unexpected, it triggers an "if someone I'm suspicious of tries to convince me with logic rather than just assuring me that they're harmless, they're probably trying to get away with something" heuristic. Also, most people seem to make the assumption, in cases like that, that they aren't going to be able to figure out what you're up to on the fly, so even flawless logic is unlikely to be accepted - the heuristic is "there must be a catch somewhere, even if I don't see it".
MrHen20

I agree with your comment and this part especially:

However, the same thought process doesn't occur on winning; people aren't inclined to analyze their successes in the say way that they analyze their failures, even if they are both random events.

Very true. I see a lot of behavior that matches this. This would be an excellent source of the complaint if it happened after they lost. My friends complained before they even picked up their cards.

MrHen10

When you deal Texas Hold'em, do you "burn" cards in the traditional way? Neither I nor most of my friends think that those cards are special, but it's part of the rules of the game. Altering them, even without (suspicion of) malicious intent breaks a ritual associated with the game.

We didn't until the people on TV did it. The ritual was only important in the sense that this is how they were predicting which card they were going to get. Their point was based entirely on the fact that the card they were going to get is not the card they ended up... (read more)

hugh100

RobinZ ventured a guess that their true objection was not their stated objection; I stated it poorly, but I was offering the same hypothesis with a different true objection--that you were disrupting the flow of the game.

I'm not entirely sure if this makes sense, partially because there is no reason to disguise unhappiness with an unusual order of game play. From what you've said, your friends worked to convince you that their objection was really about which cards were being dealt, and in this instance I think we can believe them. My fallacy was probably ... (read more)

MrHen30

How do you want your organism to react when someone else's voluntary action changes who receives a prize?

I want my organism to be able to tell the difference between a cheater and someone making irrelevant changes to a deck of cards. I assume this was a rhetorical question.

Evolution is great but I want more than that. I want to know why. I want to know why my friends feel that way but I didn't when the roles were reversed. The answer is not "because I knew more math." Have I just evolved differently?

I want to know what other areas are affected... (read more)

1[anonymous]
It might be because people conceive a loss more severely than a gain. There might be an evolutionary explanation for that. Because of that they would conceive their "lossed" card which they already thought would be theirs more severely than the card the "gained" after the cut. While you on the other hand might already be trained to think about it differently.
1JamesPfeiffer
Based on my friends, the care/don't care dichotomy cuts orthogonally to the math/no math dichotomy. Most people, whether good or bad at math, can understand that the chances are the same. It's some other independent aspect of your brain that determines whether it intensely matters to you to do things "the right way" or if you can accept the symmetry of the situation. I hereby nominate some OCD-like explanation. I'd be interested in seeing whether OCD correlated with your friends' behavior. As a data point, I am not OCD and don't care if you cut the deck.
MrHen30

Ah, okay. That makes more sense. I am still experimenting with the amount of predictive counter-arguing to use. In the past I have attempted to so by adding examples that would address the potential objections. This hasn't been terribly successful. I have also directly addressed the points and people still brought them up... so I am pondering how to fix the problem.

But, anyway. The topic at hand still interests me. I assume there is a term for this that matches the behavior. I could come up with some fancy technical definition (perceived present ownership ... (read more)

8thomblake
Something like "ownership" seems right, as well as the loss aversion issue. Somehow, this seemingly-irrational behavior seems perfectly natural to me (and I'm familiar with similar complaints about the order of cards coming out). If you look at it from the standpoint of causality and counterfactuals, I think it will snap into place... Suppose that Tim was waiting for the king of hearts to complete his royal flush, and was about to be dealt that card. Then, you cut the deck, putting the king of hearts in the middle of the deck. Therefore, you caused him to not get the king of hearts; if your cutting of the deck were surgically removed, he would have had a straight flush. Presumably, your rejoinder would be that this scenario is just as likely as the one where he would not have gotten the king of hearts but your cutting of the deck gave it to him. But note that in this situation the other players have just as much reason to complain that you caused Tim to win! Of course, any of them is as likely to have been benefited or hurt by this cut, assuming a uniform distribution of cards, and shuffling is not more or less "random" than shuffling plus cutting. A digression: But hopefully at this point, you'll realize the difference between the frequentist and Bayesian instincts in this situation. The frequentist would charitably assume that the shuffle guarantees a uniform distribution, so that the cards each have the same probability of appearing on any particular draw. The Bayesian will symmetrically note that shuffling makes everyone involved assign the same probability to each card appearing on any particular draw, due to their ignorance of which ones are more likely. But this only works because everyone involved grants that shuffling has this property. You could imagine someone who payed attention to the shuffle and knew exactly which card was going to come up, and then was duly annoyed when you unexpectedly cut the deck. Given that such a person is possible in princip
MrHen50

EDIT: Wow, this turned into a ramble. I didn't have time to proof it so I apologize if it doesn't make sense.

I'm not sure our guesses (I presume you have not tested the lottery ticket swap experimentally) are actually in conflict. My thesis was not "they think you're cheating", but simply, straightforwardly "they object to any alteration of the dealing rules", and they might do so for the wrong reason - even though, in their defense, valid reasons exist.

Okay, yeah, that makes sense. My instinct is pointing me in the other direction ... (read more)

3RobinZ
Have no fear - your comment is clear. I'll give you that one, with a caveat: if an algorithm consistently outputs correct data rather than incorrect, it's a heuristic, not a bias. They lose points either way for failing to provide valid support for their complaint. Yes, those anecdotes constitute the sort of data I requested - your hypothesis now outranks mine in my sorting. When I read your initial comment, I felt that you had proposed an overly complicated explanation based on the amount of evidence you presented for it. I felt so based on the fact that I could immediately arrive at a simpler (and more plausible by my prior) explanation which your evidence did not refute. It is impressive, although not necessary, when you can anticipate my plausible hypothesis and present falsifying evidence; it is sufficient, as you have done, to test both hypotheses fairly against additional data when additional hypotheses appear.
MrHen00

Hm. Interesting, I don't think I ever realized those two words had slightly different meanings.

*Files information under vocab quirks.*

MrHen60

I was tempted to add this comment:

Vote this comment up if you have no idea what Alicorn's metaphor of luminosity means.

But figured it wouldn't be nice to screw with your poll. :)

The point, though, is that I really don't understand the luminosity metaphor based on how you have currently described it. I would guess the following:

A luminous mental state is a mental state such that the mind in that state is fully aware of being in that state.

Am I close?

Edit: Terminology

7Alicorn
The adjective is "luminous", not "luminescent", but yes! Thanks - it's good to get feedback on when I'm not clear. However, the word "luminosity" itself is only sort of metaphorical - it's a technical term I stole and repurposed from a philosophy article. The question is how far I can go with doing things like calling a post "You Are Likely To Be Eaten By A Grue" when decrying the hazards of poor luminosity.
MrHen10

For a casual game, where it is assumed no one is cheating, then, unless you're a stickler for tradition, who cares? Your friends are wrong.

Sure, but the "wrong" in this case couldn't be shown to my friends. They perfectly understood probability. The problem wasn't in the math. So where were they wrong?

Another way of saying this:

  • The territory said one thing
  • Their map said another thing
  • Their map understood probability
  • Where did their map go wrong?

The answer has nothing to do with me cheating and has nothing to do with misunderstanding probability. There is some other problem here and I don't know what it is.

MrHen00

I don't think this is relevant. I responded in more detail to RobinZ's comment.

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