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All of Mykhailo Gumen's Comments + Replies

Longtermist Consequences of a New Dark Age?
Answer by Mykhailo Gumen30

"Technology level is pushed several decades back" and "civilization collapses and dark age comes" are two very different scenarios.

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2JBlack
I am pretty sure that if technology was pushed several decades back in some short term event, it would cause civilization collapse and a dark age in the longer term.
What would the creation of aligned AGI look like for us?
Answer by Mykhailo Gumen-40

It depends on what is possible in principle. My opinion is that it will say something like this to it's owner: "In fact, current technology level is very close to fundamental limits, so no nanorobots, no immortality, no space colonies et. ct. Maybe make some money on stock market for you?"  

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Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 2
Mykhailo Gumen10

If only yellow dwarf stars can support life, then humanity is late, not early.

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What a 20-year-lead in military tech might look like
Mykhailo Gumen140

This looks very similar to predictions made in 2000, about military in 2020. In fact, there were few changes. I think it will be even less difference between 2020 and 2040.

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5Daniel Kokotajlo
Interesting, could you provide a link? Another interpretation is that the predictions were right about what was possible, but wrong about how long it would take. For example, Kurzweil's 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.