All of Nate646's Comments + Replies

IMHO the 'attempted rape' claim is far more interpretation than substance - an interpretation that is specious at best.

I'll admit that I'd missed that part when I first read the post, I only noticed it after I went through the comments section

While almost everyone who commented interpreted it that way, I think it's also worth pointing out that at least one person in the comments thread missed the metaphor completely.

I'm interested to know if anyone would have considered voting this up if the attempted rape portion of the metaphor had been omitted and the story had been ended just before then?

-4Dentin
IMHO the 'attempted rape' claim is far more interpretation than substance - an interpretation that is specious at best.
2Gunslinger
I can't find it - where IS the rape part?

I wouldn't upvote this in any case, as it doesn't belong here as it stands.

With some thorough editing, and a lot of boiling down, it could turn into an insightful discussion of the blind spot so many people have where social needs are concerned; that education or internet are something like a basic human right, but sexual satisfaction, which is far more primal and necessary to us, isn't. It's a necessary blind spot in ideologies which treat needs as rights to be satisfied by other people, because it's full of ugly truths about those ideologies.

But I doubt... (read more)

9gjm
I can't speak for anyone else, but I thought it was very bad[1] even aside from the attempted-rape bit. [1] I mean in quality rather than morally, though the attempted-rape part (at least) is horrible morally too.

The prediction market I was using, iPredict is closing. Apparently it represents a money laundering risk and the Government refused to grant an exemption. Does anyone know any good alternatives?

1Douglas_Knight
I asked about this recently. I think that the sports bookie Betfair is the best existing option, in terms of liquidity and diversity of topics. The only prediction markets that I know to be open to Americans are the Iowa Electronic Markets and PredictIt, both with smaller limits than iPredict.
0Elo
you should post this on the next OT
Nate646100

What's the probability that this is caused by aliens?

What is your own probability estimate? I am not sure I can accurately distinguish between below 1/100,000 and between 1/10,000 and 1/100,000. With probabilities this small I am not sure that any estimate is useful

6MarsColony_in10years
Another way of saying "below 1/100,000 chance of aliens" is "above 99.999% chance of natural causes". That seams awefully certain of the unlikelyness of aliens. I'm pretty sure it's not aliens, but I'm not that confident. I'd happily lose a dollar in that bet, if someone wanted to wager $100,000 against it.
3Luke_A_Somers
it would tell you how much more evidence you would need to begin taking it seriously. That said, agree that it's not very useful.
Nate64600

I don't know what you mean with "letting on". The census asked very directly for a probability value of successful revival.>

I mean that their actual revival estimate may be a lot higher than they are willing to acknowledge, which would explain the peace of mind.

Nate64620

It could well be, that their estimation of a successful revival is significantly higher than they are letting on.

1ChristianKl
I don't know what you mean with "letting on". The census asked very directly for a probability value of successful revival.