One reason I'm dissatisfied with the LW Petrov Day Button is that I consider it to equivocate between Petrov's role (where unilateral action against an imperfect command system is good and correct) and the role of nuclear actors on the country-sized abstraction level (where unilateral action on the part of any actor is bad).
I think the phishing that occurred this year caused a good approximation of Petrov’s role (especially since it constituted a command-and-control failure on the part of the LW team!) Therefore, I was interested in sketching a preliminary... (read more)
“First of all, is it just luck? After all, if a thousand chimps throw darts at a list of stocks, one of them will hit the next Google, after which we can declare it a “superchimp”. Is that what’s going on here? No. Superforecasters one year tended to remain superforecasters the next. The year-to-year correlation in who was most accurate was 0.65; about 70% of superforecasters in the first year remained superforecasters in the second. This is definitely a real thing.”
One reason I'm dissatisfied with the LW Petrov Day Button is that I consider it to equivocate between Petrov's role (where unilateral action against an imperfect command system is good and correct) and the role of nuclear actors on the country-sized abstraction level (where unilateral action on the part of any actor is bad).
I think the phishing that occurred this year caused a good approximation of Petrov’s role (especially since it constituted a command-and-control failure on the part of the LW team!) Therefore, I was interested in sketching a preliminary... (read more)