All of ndr's Comments + Replies
It wasn't really intellectually honest, to the point he received enough criticism from his own wife and granted that much
You can check out the initial few minutes of the following AMA
...I don't feel like dealing with too many specifics here. One criticism I do take to heart if only because it came in one form from my wife is that despite my saying that I wanted to remain non judgmental and try to produce a document that the vaccine averse could actually receive without feeling denigrated in any way. I didn't try hard enough and certainly my guest Eric didn'
I agree he paints a bad picture but he's short on actual, time-bounded, predictions to evaluate his claims.
He shared some predictions in May, with a time frame of months/weeks to see some vaccine resistant variant.
I think Omicron counts as variant that is vaccine resistant, even though there's no peak in vaccinated deaths rates (deaths may be, but not rates as far as I can tell).
Some other people claim Omicron does not descend from the Wuhan strain, so even this might not be the variant Geert Vanden Bossche predicted.
Were you referring to some other predic...
A source on this has been Geert Vanden Bossche (see his FAQ).
I'm not 100% convinced he's right, but I have not found any credible attempt at debunking him either. (One such attempt is from Gorski, but it's almost name calling).
He may be right, in that case you might not be able to find any convincing counterargument either.
Long term we could assess the claim that "a slow rollout of a leaky vaccine" actually applies in the context of Covid, but we know it can be theoretically (link).
Short term, for your next dose in February, I'd weight different factors:
Oops, link fixed, here it is again for convenience.
I understand you say these are large numbers, but I don't know what signal we can expect to see if they can't contain the outbreak. Number of travelers from China that need isolating?
Or do you expect that the number of deaths will be considerably high?
China keeps daily cases under 50 per million through 2022: ?% → 40%. [...] We’ll know if this is failing,
How do you know that we'll know if this is failing?
I'll go with 60% that by December 31st 2022 we'll have no credible reports (or even the OWID feed) say China had any day with 50+ cases per million, at least this puts an upper bound on the resolution.
This is the sum of three things:
- Even if >50/mil, Information doesn’t get out, not by December 31st 2022 at least
- China manages to mitigate effectively
- China is already mostly immune. See this comme
Why 18?
See a reproduction of Lawrie's metastudy here.
Even without both of those constributions the result doesn't meaningfully change.
I have not managed to see Hariyanto et al reproduced yet (any help welcome), so I don't know what effect removing Elgazzar from it would have on that specific meta-study.
For Bryant et al though this is the result with both Elgazzar's in:
This is the result with both Elgazzar's out:
RR moved, but the result is fundamentally the same.
Do you think it would change the result for Hariyanto et al?
Update:
A recent preprint compares Roman et al and Bryant et al: Bayesian Meta Analysis of Ivermectin Effectiveness in Treating Covid-19 Disease
Summary:
The two studies find similar RR (risk reduction as
)
Bryant found RR = 0.38 [CI 95%: (0.19, 0.73)]
Roman found RR = 0.37 [CI 95%: (0.12, 1.13)]
Roman et al should conclude there's not enough evidence because they can't rule out RR >= 1 at 95% confidence. Instead they conclude:
...In comparison to SOC or placebo, IVM did not reduce all-cause mortality, length of stay or viral clearance in RCTs in COVID-19 pa
India's situation is messy because of the different states policies.
To properly do this one would need to control for incidence and lockdown policy state-by-state. Also some states have no approval for Ivermectin yet it gets used.
My best bet is that we'll get the cleaner data on whether it works from Europe, in particular from Slovakia and Czechia.
Even if EMA advises against Ivermectin, Slovakia approved it for both prophylaxis and treatment in late January 2021.
I could not find how widespread the slovak usage of Ivermectin is, but there are few points:
...The Medina study received some methodological complains, see the JAMA letter.
Ivermectin proponents seem to consistently push for a regimen of:
- high dosage (0.2mg/kg once-a-week for prevention)
- early usage, ideally as prevention
- usage with/after meals
If they're right one can imagine studies that see no effects either because of low dosage, late administration or administering it on empty stomach (the anti-parasite regimen), which the Medina study does.
Another meta-analysis (Bryant et al) has a very similar title but positive claims Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infection: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Trial Sequential Analysis to Inform Clinical Guidelines.
The authors have put out an official rebuttal of the negative meta-analysis which is an interesting read and point to many of their perceived flaws.
The comments on the preprint of the negative study (Roman et al) are also interesting.
For instance:
...Hi, I'm Dr.Niaee and I was surprised that even basic data from our RCT i
- seriously, what are the chances that all three vaccines are both dangerous and equally so?
Malone/Weinstein say they seem to have minor differences, at least in mechanism/effect. Their point being that if you get the S p circulating you're in trouble. All the three seem to produce that effect.
- One must also consider the reaction of other experts [...] When experts in high places thought there was a risk of rare blood clots, they were often willing to halt [...]
Well done, this is a very well put and good point. I don't know what drove the craze on ...
There's also criticism of the Bryant and Lawrie paper.
What's an actual criticism of that paper from that article? That meta-studies are garbage-in-garbage-out? That's weak at best, the author seems to have spent no time in spot checking any of the papers included to check whether this actually happened.
The Japanese data is at the center of Byram Bridle's claims, which is systematically debunked ...
... by a nameless "Concerned Scientist". I don't want to play ranking authorities, but it's obvious someone is mad at Bridle enough to steal his name to p...
Thy disagree, but in which direction? The second chart seem to report numbers higher than the first chart but I'm not sure they are about the same data. What's your read? Can you put some links for the second graph source?
Is the risk of female reproductive harm from the vaccines any worse than the risk from infection?
That is a brilliant question. Data from Israel and UK (both high vaccination rates) should reveal useful, but I do wonder how much data is required to make that claim.
In the UK (ONS) 1.7 males died for each dead female in the 15-45 age bucket. It's 2.3 in the 20-25 age bucket. This suggests female (young especially) are less prone to be badly affected, but it says nothing of other fertility-related adverse reactions.
Regarding Ivermectin, see my top level rep...
The whole video is painful to watch, it gets more bearable after the 2:11 mark when Kirsch (the blue shirt guy) slows a bit down.
The following is a recap of what I've understood them saying and some unpacking. I'm not educated in anything medical and still have a bunch of open question. If you spot any error or know the answer to these questions please let me know.
TL;DW
They seem to be making 3 main points:
- Ivermectin prevents and treats SARS-CoV-2. It's extremely safe, common and cheap.
- Vaccines were rushed. Long term adverse reactions are unknown, some
Nobody is very likely an exaggeration, I suspect is severely under used, but I have no idea about the reversals.
Did you report to VAERS yourself or via your doctor?
How do you know whether your report made it through?
I've found a post from EMA claiming:
Batch ABV5300 was delivered to 17 EU countries and comprises 1 million doses of the vaccine.
but still no signal on how big is the batch single countries get.
If there's an actual risk of blood clot problems, we should see something similar reported in the UK, given the millions of doses they already used.
We don't see any similar reports coming from the UK. The opposite seems true (BBC).
Is the UK hiding this kind of news? I doubt.
Are there problem only outside of the UK?
If this is the case, "the story" might actually be some handling/logistic problem in the vaccines production/transportation/storage in other countries that turns some batches bad.
If this is the case we should see higher % of problems where ...
I was doubtful, now I stand corrected.