All of Nepene's Comments + Replies

Nepene00

If you predict that there's a 20% chance of the AI destroying the world and an 80% chance of global warming destroying the world and there's a 100% chance the AI will stop global warming if released and unmolested then you are better off releasing the AI.

Or you can just give a person 6 points for achieving their goal and -20 points for releasing the AI. Even though the person knows rationally that the AI could destroy the world points matter more than that, and that strongly encourages people to try negotiating with the AI.

Nepene50

I've played the AI box game on other forums. We designed a system to incentivise release of the AI. We rolled randomly the ethics of the AI, rolled random events with dice and the AI offered various solutions to those problems. A certain number of accepted solutions would enable the AI to free itself. You lost points if you failed to deal with the problems and lost lots of points if you freed the AI and they happened to have goals you disagreed with like annihilation of everything.

Psychology was very important in those, as you said. Different people have very different values and to appeal to each person you have to know their values.

4ike
So if you were trying to maximise total points, wouldn't it be best to never let it out because you lose a lot more if it destroys the world than you gain from getting solutions? What values for points make it rational to let the AI out, and is it also rational in the real-world analogue?
Nepene00

I am from Britain and I can say with experience that working for a company in exchange for money is not an effective way to avoid 24/7 sleep with the hero situations. I know quite a few people who have a poor work life balance because they are working for a company and have more stressful situations and conflicts. I've seen people work themselves to depression, divorce, and death thanks to my involvement with the very toxic British banking culture.

Your avoidance of such things dependends on the independent variable of how assertive you are at managing your... (read more)

1NoSignalNoNoise
Banking has that reputation in America too. I would hazard a guess that the problem is banking, not Britain (I used to work in finance, though not in banking specifically).
Nepene10

You can easily model beliefs and work out if they're likely to have good or bad results. They could theoretically have a variety of infinite impacts, but most probably have a fairly small and limited effect. Humans have lots of beliefs, they can't all have a major impact.

For the catastrophic consequences issue, have you read this?

http://lesswrong.com/lw/ase/schelling_fences_on_slippery_slopes/

The slippery slope issue of potentially catastrophic consequences from a model can be limited by establishing arbitrary lines before hand that you refuse to cross. W... (read more)

Nepene10

I think some sort of debating or arguing class would be very helpful. People should have good reasons for why they do things and this applies to most topics.

Some sort of thing where the topics debated would be marked by how well you cited facts or how clear your chains of reasoning were. So if you were asked to discuss why on food was better than another you should have some process like looking up the answer in a text book or looking up stuff from science websites online, interpreting them correctly, and presenting the truth. Lots of fanfare and marks sho... (read more)

Nepene20

There is a definite likelihood that acting out a belief will cause you to believe it due to your brain poorly distinguishing signalling and true beliefs.

That can be advantageous at times. Some beliefs may be less important to you, and worthy of being sacrificed for the greater good. If you say, believe that forcing people to wear suits is immoral and that veganism is immoral then it may be worth you sacrificing your belief in the unethical nature of suits so you can better stop people eating animals.

A willingness to do this is beneficial in most people who... (read more)

7Capla
No. I will make concessions about which beliefs to act on in order to optimize for "Goodness", but I'm highly concerned about sacrificing beliefs about the world themselves. Doing this may be beneficial in specific situation, but at a cost to your overall effectiveness in other situations across domains. Since the range of possible situations that you might find yourself in is infinite, there is no way to know whether you've made a change to your model with catastrophic consequences down the line. Furthermore, we evaluate the effectiveness of strategies on the basis of the model we have, so every time your model becomes less accurate, your estimate of what is the best option in a given situation becomes less accurate. (Note that your confidence in your estimate may rise, fall, or stay the same, but I would doubt that having a less accurate model is going to lead to better credence calibration) Allowing your beliefs to change for any reason other than to better reflect the world, only serves to make you worse at knowing how best to deal with the world. Now, changing your values - that's another story.
Nepene00

D&D has often had issues with magic users. They often are stronger than non magic users at all levels. For example, use of the spell sleep allows you to disable a group of enemies with no save allowed. Exploitation is common.

In games you can generally gain a huge amount of power by researching the right choices and doing them.

In the real world that's a lot trickier because people in the past have researched the right choices and heavily exploited and monopolized existing power resources, and any publicly known power resources will likely be heavily exploited. Competition makes it harder than when you're playing with three or four people.

0fubarobfusco
TVTropes has an article, Linear Warriors, Quadratic Wizards ....
0TheOtherDave
Of course, one could run a D&D campaign in which NPCs have already exploited and monopolized those resources. That said, I suspect this would start to approximate playing Papers & Paychecks.