The strategy above makes all three statements seem equally unlikely to be true. Mathematically equivalent but with different emphasis would be to make all three statements seem equally unlikely to be false.

i.e. Pick things that seem so mundane and ordinary that surely they must be universally true—then watch the reaction as it is realised that one of them must actually be a lie.

I suspect there has to be a degree of mental disconnect, where they can see that things don't all happen (or not happen) equally as often as each other, but answering the math question of "What's the probability?" feels like a more abstract and different thing.

Maybe mixed up with some reflexive learned helplessness of not really trying to do math because of past experience that's left them thinking they just can't get it.

Possibly over generalising from early textbook probability examples involving coins and dice, where counting up and dividing by the number of possible outcomes is a workable approach.

I know someone who taught math to low-ability kids, and reported finding it difficult to persuade them otherwise. I assume some number of them carried on into adulthood still doing it.

In the infinite limit (or just large-ish x), the probability of at least one success, from nx attempts with 1/x odds on each attempt, will be 1 - ( 1 / e^n )

For x attempts, 1 - 1/e = 0.63212

For 2x attempts 1 - 1/e^2 = 0.86466

For 3x attempts 1 - 1/e^3 = 0.95021

And so on

Ironically, the even more basic error of probabilistic thinking that people so—painfully—commonly make ("It either happens or doesn't, so it's 50/50") would get closer to the right answer.

not intended to be replayed

I have flagrantly disregarded this advice in an attempt to uncover its secrets. I'm assuming there are still a bunch of patterns that remain obscure, but the ones I have picked up on allowed me to end day 60 with 5581 food just now. So I'm calling that good enough.

Rat Ruins: 

Dragon Lake: 

Goat Grove:

Horse Hills: 

Tiger Forest: 

The rest: 

Combined strategy: 

Also, the guy is spamming his post about spamming applications into all the subreddits, which gives the whole thing a great meta twist, I wonder if he’s using AI for that too.

I'm pretty sure I saw what must be the same account, posting blatantly AI generated replies/answers across a ton of different subreddits, including at least some that explicitly disallow that.

Either that or someone else's bot was spamming AI answer comments while also spamming copycat "I applied to 1000 jobs with AI" posts.

Ah, perils of text-only communication and my own mild deficiency in social senses; didn't catch that it was a joke.

Has nonetheless got me thinking about whether some toasted oats would be a good addition to any of the recipes I already like. Lil bit of extra bulk and texture, some browned nutty notes—there's not nothing to that.

Not wishing to be rude but this feels like it's missing a section on the benefits of eating oatmeal sometimes.

There's a favourable comparison to the protein/fibre/arsenic content of white rice, but I don't eat a lot of white rice so I am left unclear on the motivation for substituting something I do eat with oatmeal.