Isn't singling out individual market participants as 'superforecasters', and privileging their individual predictions based on past performance, missing the whole point of prediction markets?
Yes. I would still use it though. For grand-scheme-of-things stuff, Metaculus is great. For stuff that's personally relevant (What will be my income in 2025 if I switch to X career?) predictions from people with great track records is good enough for me.
Note that the title is super-forecasters as a service, not prediction-markets as a service.
I find it to make sense, at least for public places like, say, shops, for a very simple reason: how do you tell if a random person has been vaccinated and is not merely lying to you that they have been vaccinated, as they have an incentive to do if they don't like wearing masks or whatever?
What is “it” when you say “it” makes sense?
I’ll probably wear masks in e.g. the grocery store even after being vaccinated, because I expect the law to lag the reason for the law, and because wearing a mask for ~half an hour is less costly than the risk of conflict if someone tries to make me wear a mask.
As for whether public places should enforce mask-wearing on people who claim to have been vaccinated, well, enforcement is pretty lax as it is, and I expect it’ll just get laxer as vaccination spreads. As it should.
Isn't singling out individual market participants as 'superforecasters', and privileging their individual predictions based on past performance, missing the whole point of prediction markets?