All of omeganaut's Comments + Replies

Citystates in Greece had to deal with politics that certainly could mean life or death. When the Peloponnesian war broke out, states had to take sides, or risk being hated by both sides, and at risk for invasion and conquering. Rome around the time of Julius Caesar was turbulent, and where supporting the wrong Tribune could mean being put on a wanted list and killed by a bounty hunter when they came to power. In Germany, choosing the wrong side at the wrong time could certainly result in execution for heresay or treason. There are many examples throughout history where competing political views transferred into violence and killing, if not outright war.

Those don't fit my understanding of the "ancestral environment" - I associate that with the tribes-of-cavemen era. By my understanding, Greek city-states are within our FOOM period. Am I mistaken?

Now that I have read more articles, I understand that most of my issues were due to taking the words with my definition and not hers. The result is that the article seems to be against those with different definitions of emergent, even though there is most likely more than one common definition of emergent, and no definition was previously selected as the correct one.

1thomblake
For reference, the above article was written by this guy.

How is that a curiosity stopper. Either someone is satisfied with that explanation (like science), or they want to know more about elan vital. Then someone will find that the answer to what elan vital is is either mystical (and therefore bringing religion into the equation) or not known, in which case a curious person would want to find out how Elan vital functions, leading to new discoveries. Similarly now we have forces at the atomic level that we don't understand how they function, and yet quantum theory is generally accepted as truth. How is this different than Elan Vital at the time?

5Dreaded_Anomaly
Please elaborate, because on its face that statement does not seem accurate. We do understand how the electromagnetic, weak, and strong forces function. There are places where quantum field theory fails, but there are plenty of places where it succeeds and makes good predictions. In contrast, "elan vital" doesn't make any predictions. It doesn't drive curiosity because there's no way to test it and get results that we can then try to understand better.

The problem with talking about Jupiter being a ball of gas, is that it cannot feel, and emotion is the primary goal of poetry. You certainly can have stories that endure science, but putting a story on Jupiter is not changing the story much at all. One example that I personally enjoy is Star Trek. It dealt with issues in a different way, but they were still the same issues affecting current society. I fail to understand what you are asking future poets to do. Emotion is the same, the only thing poets can do is change the setting.

The disconnect here appears to derive from the fact that reductionists have models of the interactions of particles in their minds, which as a system produce the reality we observe directly. Anti-reductionists fail to see that reductionists are accepting the larger model while saying it is composed of items that are not all the same. Also, many are not ready to be able to have a model of reality in which the tiger is composed of interactions that are unbelievably small and have no particular connection to a tiger. When a hostile anti-reductionist attack... (read more)

2thomblake
While sometimes disagreements are unresolvable, that should never be the goal. The goal here is to have true beliefs - an accurate map of the world. While it may be appropriate to use different models in different contexts (since models necessarily leave out some details of the things they're modeling), we should not disagree about the contents of a well-defined model. Disagreements are an opportunity to find out where you're wrong. Ideally, both parties emerge from them in agreement.

"Or here's a very similar problem: Let's say I have four cards, the ace of hearts, the ace of spades, the two of hearts, and the two of spades. I draw two cards at random. You ask me, "Are you holding at least one ace?" and I reply "Yes." What is the probability that I am holding a pair of aces? It is 1/5. There are six possible combinations of two cards, with equal prior probability, and you have just eliminated the possibility that I am holding a pair of twos. Of the five remaining combinations, only one combination is a p... (read more)

0thomblake
The standard way of quoting is to use a single greater-than sign (>) before the paragraph, and then leave a blank line before your response. Note the 'Help' link below the comment editing box.

I'll be honest, I have a serious problem with hypocrites, and so I warn everyone I know if they start heading down that path. In your article, you say that morality is perhaps the most suspect method of rationality. Yet, you yourself, by putting up these articles and arguing that everyone should use rational thought, seem to have a moral motivation for rationality. I am not saying that this is your only motivation, but it seems to be the motivation behind these posts. However, I do appreciate that you respect morality by mentioning how important it is ... (read more)

But that in now way implies that they should be ignored.

-1thomblake
It at least to some extent implies that they should be ignored. To illustrate: Someone who is has great political power should not be ignored. This statement is not vacuous; it is instead making a worthwhile statement of fact. Given that, we know that people who do not have great political power should be ignored to a greater extent than people who do have great political power. Thus, that one does not have great political power (at least weakly) implies that one should be ignored (ceteris paribus). This contradicts the claim "That in no way implies that they should be ignored" (emphasis added). As a side note, the comment you're responding to was left in 2007, and even on a different website. As a general rule, unless you're making a significant contribution, it's not worth responding to comments that were left before 2009. If you do believe the parent comment is a worthwhile contribution, I'd suggest correcting "now" to "no" (assuming that's what you meant).

You use quarks as your one example of something that is not emergent. However, how can you prove that quarks are not a system of smaller interacting particles? String theory seems to propose that quarks can be broken into smaller pieces which are strings. Maybe its the interaction of the strings that cause the overall action of the quark?
As for emergence, the way I understand Emergence based on this post and the comments is that emergence is a result of the parts of a system interacting with one another, possibly limited to those event that were not pre... (read more)

4thomblake
This misses the point. 'Quarks' were a stand-in for whatever particle you take to be fundamental; if there's something smaller than quarks, that does not defeat the notion that it is unhelpful to describe the action of the stock market in terms of its non-quarkness. In what way is this a useful concept? In particular, having not been predicted is a feature of the predictor, not so much of the event, and so attaching the adjective to the event invites thinking wrongly that 'emergence' is fundamental to the event. It is not an ad hominem argument. I know that because you club baby seals and you claimed it was an ad hominem argument; therefore, it is not an ad hominem argument. The previous sentence is an example of an ad-hominem argument. There are of course other varieties of ad hominem, but it isn't any of those either. It is really not a non-sequitor. The point is that 'emergent' tells you about as much about the phenomenon as 'mysterious'. It doesn't communicate much more than "I don't understand why this happened" - as you grant above.

While I understand how there are some questions that cannot be completely answered, I feel as though you have chosen to ignore the fact that science at that time was inadequate to really understand the underlying science. Even today there is no complete understanding of any field, just educated guesses based on experiments and observations. Elan vital was just one theory of attempting to describe why life happens, and it was based on the fact that life had something more than un-living matter. However, further experiments altered this theory. Would you... (read more)

4thomblake
You're missing the point. 'Elan vital' was not even a theory of why life is different from non-life; it was merely a statement of the observation that life is different from non-life. * "Why are living things different from nonliving things?" * "Elan vital! (Where 'elan vital' is defined as 'whatever causes living things to be different from nonliving things')" This exchange has not improved anyone's understanding of life, but it is actually worse since it feels like you've explained something and so it's a "curiosity-stopper".

I find most of this article extremely enlightening on the foundation of many problems with modern life. I also, however, have issues with your examples concerning government and other semantic stop signs. Liberal democracy is not necessarily a stop sign. It is easily countered by asking what that has to do with anything, as no current country in the world has a true democracy. They have republics due to the sheer size of countries rendering direct democracy pointless. Also, governments are reliant on the intelligence of their leaders and on those who ... (read more)

0pnrjulius
How does it help us to put a stop sign there, and not say slightly before or slightly after? Indeed, what is "there" exactly (the proposition "we ought to do what is right" strikes me as obviously true, but also sort of trivial).
2Nornagest
Restricting "true democracy" to direct democracy essentially renders the category meaningless.
4Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg)
If only everyone had the same definition of what is right and what is wrong...

The simple answer is that absence of proof towards a possibility is not proof that that the possibility cannot exist, merely that there is no actual proof either way. However, in this specific case, the absence of evidence pointing towards the existence of a fifth column that is engaging in sabotage is evidence that indicates that the fifth column does not exist. I agree that the specific terminology is a bit confusing, but that is the simple explanation as to your question.

First of all, there is a specific time in which you could evenly divide the period because there are only 60 seconds in a minute, which is divisible by three. Secondly, your article seems to say that we should use our anticipation wisely, which would seem to say that anticipating small things is pointless. However, anticipation is a very important part of human life experiences, and as such it is almost impossible to either use less of or create more of unless one is capable of fooling one's self into an erroneous belief. Last, by anticipating an outcom... (read more)

1Rixie
It's about how if you slide the probability of, say, bond yeilds going up, to be more likely, that makes the probablity of bonds yeilds going down or staying the same less likely. We can't say, "I think that there is a 40% chance of bond yeilds going up, and a 70% chance of bond yeilds going down or staying the same."
7thomblake
The point of the article was that the subject really does anticipate different market outcomes to different extents, and that uncertainty can be represented using probability. Thus the 100 minutes of preparation time could be divided up usefully by spending n minutes on each justification, where n is reached by multiplying the probability of the outcome by 100 minutes. For example, if you believe that the stock has a 60% chance of going up, a 35% chance of going down, and a 4.99% chance of staying the same, then you could spend 60 minutes preparing explanations of why it went up, 35 minutes preparing explanations of why it went down, 4.99 minutes preparing explanations of why it stayed the same, and .01 minutes fretting that you've forgotten one of the things that stocks can do. You're probably right about the emotional state of pundits, but that wasn't really relevant to the point of the story. Welcome to Less Wrong! It might be worth checking out Bayes' Theorem.