I'm not sure which further details you are after.
Thanks for the response! I'm looking for a formal version of the viewpoint you reiterated at the beginning of your most recent comment:
Yes, if the player is allowed access to entropy that Omega cannot have then it would be absurd to also declare that Omega can predict perfectly. [...] The problem specification needs to include a clause for how 'randomization' is handled.
That makes a lot of sense, but I haven't been able to find it stated formally. Wolpert and Benford's papers (using game theory decision trees or alternatively plain probability theory) seem to formally show that the problem formulation is ambiguous, but they are... (read more)
This seems like an opportunity for a startup. It could be a fun project to build startup weekend-style. The concept doesn't seem particular tied to the Less Wrong community, and (based on a couple minutes searching for "online study halls") there don't seem to be other prominent startups taking on this specific challenge.
This response challenges my intuition, and I would love to learn more about how the problem formulation is altered to address the apparent inconsistency in the case that players make choices on the basis of a fair coin flip. See my other post.
Thanks for this post; it articulates many of the thoughts I've had on the apparent inconsistency of common decision-theoretic paradoxes such as Newcomb's problem. I'm not an expert in decision theory, but I have a computer science background and significant exposure to these topics, so let me give it a shot.
The strategy I have been considering in my attempt to prove a paradox inconsistent is to prove a contradiction using the problem formulation. In Newcomb's problem, suppose each player uses a fair coin flip to decide whether to one-box or two-box. Then Omega could not have a sustained correct prediction rate above 50%. But the problem formulation says Omega does; therefore the... (read more)
Task management has become a passion of mine; for the last two years or so I've been trying to build something close to what you're describing. I think it's cool that you're giving this a shot. Here are some of my thoughts:
For example, I assumed the median staring salary for computer scientists was a reasonable estimate for what my starting salary would be. It turns out that I can expect to make about twice that much money if I use certain job hunting techniques I learned at the workshop and optimize for money (instead of, say, cool sounding problems).
What changed your expectation of your starting salary?
The potential benefits from private questioning should be weighed against the cost of the information not being visible to others. I like to see Wei_Dai's questions and the responses they elicit. I think the public exchanges have significant value beyond the immediate participants.
If our simulators are human, that implies that their universe has laws of physics similar to our own. But if we're living in a simulation, I think it's more plausible that our simulators exist in a world operating under different laws of physics (e.g. they live in a universe which is more amenable to our-universe-scale simulation.) So I think other factors are in play which could lessen the probability that we are being simulated by humans, let alone our future.
Or maybe just greater means. I imagine many humans would run universe-scale simulations, if they had the means.
This thread is for the discussion of options for people interested in changing their living environments some time in the next year or so. It's a place to:
Whether you're graduating from college, moving for a new job, or looking to further optimize your living environment for other reasons, talking with... (read more)
I'd like to cite this article (or related published work) in a research project paper I'm writing which includes application of an expected utility-maximizing algorithm to a version of the prisoner's dilemma. Do you have anything more cite-able than this article's URL and your LW username? I didn't see anything in your profile which could point me towards your real name and anything you might have published.