Most assets are priced off expectations. And as you suggest, not many people expect a 30 year slump. Suppose an asset paid off relatively well for a 30 year slump, but not otherwise. It wouldn't cost much because most people would believe it isn't worth much, and you could buy it at, say, 1/10000th of the payoff. If the world came to unanimous expectation a 30 year slump, then the price would increase towards the payoff value and you would be much richer from the capital gain.
Or do you want something that pays off well afte... (read more)
I don't think your second example is very good; in fact, I think investing in pharmacorps would be implicitly a bet against a long stagnation, simply because drug patents have very specific expiration dates, and a stagnation implies that existing and near-future drug patents will not be replaced with new patents, and their lunches will be eaten by commoditizing generic-makers (who themselves will profit little). The ultimate "patent cliff".
You should refine the question:
Most assets are priced off expectations. And as you suggest, not many people expect a 30 year slump. Suppose an asset paid off relatively well for a 30 year slump, but not otherwise. It wouldn't cost much because most people would believe it isn't worth much, and you could buy it at, say, 1/10000th of the payoff. If the world came to unanimous expectation a 30 year slump, then the price would increase towards the payoff value and you would be much richer from the capital gain.
Or do you want something that pays off well afte... (read more)