All of plethora's Comments + Replies

I'd be surprised if Yudkowsky has read Sartre. But it's a natural thing to do. Harry Potter is (unfortunately) the closest thing we have to a national epic we have these days... well, an Anglosphere epic, but you get the idea.

If this is the sort of thing you're interested in, you might want to read Benedict Anderson's book Imagined Communities.

I have taken the survey.

I think this discussion is somewhat confused by the elision of the difference between 'autodidact' and 'lone wolf'. 'Autodidact', in internet circles, is generally used to mean 'anyone who learns things primarily outside a formalized educational environment'; it's possible to be an autodidact while still being heavily engaged with communities and taking learning things as a social endeavor and so on, and in fact Eliezer was active in communities related to LW's subject matter for a long time before he started LW. By the same token, one of the main things I... (read more)

When you ask someone if they would like a debate platform and describe all the features and content it'll have, they go: "Hell yeah I'd love that!" And it took me a while to realize that what they are imagining is someone else writing all the content and doing all the heavy lifting. Then they would come along, read some of it, and may be leave a comment or two. And basically everyone is like that: they want it, but they are not willing to put in the work. And I don't blame them, because I'm not willing to put in the work (of writing) either. The

... (read more)

Yes, so you send everyone out and hide most of the beds when the inspectors come around.

This is probably not desirable for communities with children, but it's common for co-ops in places with those laws.

0Lumifer
Yeah, and then you end up with Ghost Ship situations...

It's a coastal, urban American custom. To a first approximation, it's illegal to build in coastal cities and most of the land in them is uninhabitable because crime.

Would be interested if I lived in a place amenable to this. Seconding dropspindle's recommendation of Appalachia, since that's where I'm already planning to move if I can get a remote job.

It may be worth looking to see whether there are any large, relatively inexpensive houses near major cities that could be converted. There are a lot of McMansion developments in the suburbs north of DC that have never looked particularly inhabited.

2Lumifer
Oh, there are a lot of them. Are you prepared to live in a 90% black community?

Yes, I know. I bet Islamists don't think highly of it either.

0Lumifer
I bet Islamists don't think of it.

If Nazis got punched all the time, they would be perceived as weak and nobody would join them.

Two thousand years ago, some guy in the Roman Empire got nailed to a piece of wood and left to die. How did that turn out?

0Lumifer
Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi

I guess the second part is more important, because the first part is mostly a strawman.

Not in my experience. It may seem like it now, but that's because the postrationalists won the argument.

3Viliam
Congratulations on successfully breaking through an open door, I guess. -- Why truth? And..., 2006

Similarly, when a third party describes SSC, they cannot credibly accuse Scott of what someone else wrote in the comments; the dividing line between Scott and his comentariat is obvious.

They can accuse Scott of being the sort of fascist who would have a [cherry-picking two or three comments that aren't completely in approval of the latest Salon thinkpiece] far-right extremist commentariat. And they do.

0Viliam
Yep, here is an example.

I don't feel like I can just share Less Wrong articles to many places because Less Wrong lacks respectability in wider society and is only respectable with those who are part of the LW ghetto's culture.

That's mostly a CSS problem. The respectability of a linked LW article would, I think, be dramatically increased if the place looked more professional. Are there any web designers in the audience?

1Lumifer
Not quite. In some corners of the 'net LW has... a reputation.

Walled gardens are probably necessary for honest discussion.

If everything is open and tied to a meatspace identity, contributors have to constantly mind what they can and can't say and how what they're saying could be misinterpreted, either by an outsider who isn't familiar with local jargon or by a genuinely hostile element (and we've certainly had many of those) bent on casting LW or that contributor in the worst possible light.

If everything is open but not tied to an identity, there's no status payoff for being right that's useful in the real world -- o... (read more)

Let's consider the number x = ...999; in other words, now we have infinitely many 9s to the left of the decimal point.

My gut response (I can't reasonably claim to know math above basic algebra) is:

  • Infinite sequences of numbers to the right of the decimal point are in some circumstances an artifact of the base. In base 3, 1/3 is 0.1 and 1/10 is 0.00220022..., but 1/10 "isn't" an infinitely repeating decimal and 1/3 "is" -- in base 10, which is what we're used to. So, heuristically, we should expect that some infinitely repeating rep

... (read more)
1Qiaochu_Yuan
I think you mean "they must both be positive" here, but 0.999... isn't guaranteed to be an integer a priori. Aside from that, everything you've said is basically correct. But... well, there's something pretty interesting going on with infinite decimals to the left. For numbers that don't exist they sure do have a lot of interesting properties. This might be worth a top-level post.

The is-ought problem implies that the universe is deterministic

What?

0ingive
Because Hume thought the universe is without taking in consideration that it ought to be different because of probabilistic nature (one interpretation) of it all.

No. Accepting facts fully does not lead to utilitarian ideas. This has been a solved problem since Hume, FFS.

0ingive
You're welcome to explain why this isn't the case. I'm thinking mostly about neuroscience and evolutionary biology. It tells us everything.

Accepting facts fully (probably leads to EA ideas,

It's more likely to lead to Islam; that's at least on the right side of the is-ought gap.

0ingive
I'm having a hard time understanding what you mean. Accepting facts fully is EA/Utilitarian ideas. There is no 'ought' to be. 'leads' was the incorrect word choice.

Language could be more or less frozen wherever it stands at the time.

No it wouldn't -- language is for signaling, not only communication. There would probably be a common language for business and travel, but languages would continue to develop normally, since people would still want to use language to determine how they present themselves.

0TiffanyAching
You're right, that was a little overbroad. I was thinking specifically in terms of the death or spread of individual languages. If I have a device that translates anything said to me and renders it into my own language in real time - Pierre says something to me in French and I "hear" it in English - I never have to learn language other than my first, and my first - whether it's English or Tagalog or Swahili - is no more or less useful, no more or less universally comprehensible than any other. So you're right that languages would still develop internally - English speakers would still speak to other English speakers and alter the language among themselves as they do now - but the cross-pollination of languages and their growth or decline over time would be affected. The native language of my own country is almost dead - on life-support, so to speak - because English was more useful. English was what you taught your kids if you wanted them to have any chance of success. If you could, you taught them English as a first language. With a universal translator that pressure would be removed. Why would anyone go to the trouble of always speaking to their children in their second language so that the children acquire it as their first? The number of people who learned any given language as their first would be pegged to the population speaking that language at the point when the technology was introduced. So the only reason for a language to die would be if that population declined over time due to to emigration or low birth rates. Of course this is all pretty woolly, given that it's an imaginary technology, possibly centuries away from even being possible.

If you never publicly state your beliefs, how are you supposed to refine them?

But if you do publicly state your beliefs, the Rebecca Watsons can eat you, and if you don't, the Rebecca Watsons can coordinate against you.

How do you solve that?

"I believe that it's always important to exchange views with people, no matter what their perspectives are. I think that we have a lot of problems in our society and we need to be finding ways to talk to people, we need to find ways to talk to people where not everything is completely transparent. ... I think often... (read more)

Right, and he addresses this in the article:

This lack of motivation is connected to another important psychology – the willingness to fail conventionally. Most people in politics are, whether they know it or not, much more comfortable with failing conventionally than risking the social stigma of behaving unconventionally. They did not mind losing so much as being embarrassed, as standing out from the crowd. (The same phenomenon explains why the vast majority of active fund management destroys wealth and nobody learns from this fact repeated every year.)

... (read more)

Discussion quality is a function of the discussants more than the software.

But daydreaming about the cool new social media software we're totally going to write is so fun!

1ChristianKl
Yesterday I saw the prototype of the discussion software that the Arbital folks are writing, and it looks really great.

People have been building communities with canons since the compilation of the Torah.

LW, running on the same Reddit fork it's on today, used to be a functional community with a canon. Then... well, then what? Interesting content moved offsite, probably because 1) people get less nervous about posting to Tumblr or Twitter than posting an article to LW 2) LW has content restrictions that elsewhere doesn't. So people stopped paying attention to the site, so the community fragmented, the barrier to entry was lowered, and now the public face of rationalists is... (read more)

This is seeking a technological solution to a social problem.

The proposed technological solution is interesting, complicated, and unlikely to ever be implemented. It's not hard to see why the sorts of people who read LW want to talk about interesting and complicated things, especially interesting and complicated things that don't require much boring stuff like research -- but I highly doubt that anyone is going to sit down and do the work of implementing it or anything like it, and in the event that anyone ever does, it'll likely take so long that many of... (read more)

This is seeking a technological solution to a social problem.

It is still strange to me that people say this as if it were a criticism.

Religion requires epistemic blindspots, but does religion require epistemic blindspots? That is, is requiring epistemic blindspots a property of religion itself, or is religion one among many subclasses of the type of thing that requires epistemic blindspots? In the former case, raising the sanity waterline to specifically eliminate religion would raise the sanity waterline; in the latter case, it might lower it.

What do you think would happen to the sanity waterline if all the Seventh-Day Adventists in America became atheists and joined an antifa group? ... (read more)

0moridinamael
I have no interest in "targeting" religion for annihilation, or anything like that. I don't disagree with anything you say here. Religion is just one subset of a class of failure mode that theoretically goes underwater when a society becomes saner. For the sake of defining my terms, I guess I'm just using "being religious" as a catchall for "possessing ontological beliefs that are not grounded in empirically knowable facts", but I'm not really interested in defending the details of that definition. I think people know what cluster in thingspace I'm pointing to when I say "religion". Maybe I should have said something like this in the main post, but, consider a society that looks like ours except all school-aged children spend at least a semester studying the Human's Guide to Words section of the Sequences. How many absolutely stupid thoughts, beliefs, conversations would just never happen in that world? A lot of those thoughts/beliefs/conversations would be religio-centric, and a lot wouldn't be. The more "rationality interventions" you add, the fewer ostentatiously dumb things are permitted in the wider social milieu, and bad ideas "go underwater". That's the idea, anyway.

That's true. One has to be on the lookout for pathological social trends masquerading as widespread rationality. For example, the current US attitude that you have to go to college is looking less and less rational by the day. That said, in some other country with 10% high school graduation rates and zero universities, I would consider any increase in those numbers to be a sanity improvement.

This sounds like an exploration/exploitation problem. If every society heads for the known maximum of sanity, it'll be much more difficult to find higher maxima tha... (read more)

0moridinamael
I suspect, at a moderate level of certainty, that epistemic blindspots of the type that religion requires are highly toxic to both individual and society-level rationality. But let's stipulate for the sake of argument that a Seventh-Day Adventist in modern times is precisely no worse off in their day-to-day life due to their religious beliefs. That Seventh-Day Adventist still has to live in a world where "we respect the beliefs of everyone", which is code for "fantasy and magical thinking centered on ancient books have to be continuously considered in a wide variety of public policy discussions". If the sanity waterline were truly raised to the point that religion "goes underwater", then we would only have to deal with the normal human failure modes of discourse that occur on a civilizational level, which are already pretty bad, without having to also juggle the policy desires of religionists. So, choosing a saner civilization means you accrue the benefits of a saner civilization. Of course, I don't actually think that an individual Seventh-Day Adventist is "no worse off" than a rationalist. It's the work of seconds to dream up a wide variety of situations and scenarios in which the religionist is obligated to make objectively bad concrete choices to preserve their self image, which a rationalist wouldn't be forced to make. In exchange, the religionist gets some theoretical enhanced community support (not something I ever experienced when I was in a religion) and a nice, clean, settled ontology that comforts them regarding death. Still doesn't seem worth the tradeoff to me.

I decide that it can't hurt to ask around and see what marketable skills one can acquire outside a job or formal education, other than programming.

(+) Enrollment rates in primary/secondary/tertiary education

How are you defining 'education' here? Does homeschooling count? What about trade schools? Apprenticeships?

If a society had a college education rate of, say, 98%, would it have a higher or lower sanity waterline than a society with a college education rate of 30% where most of the other 70% went into employer-funded job training, apprenticeships, etc.?

And education depresses fertility. Until widespread genetic engineering or FAI, the values of populations whose fertility rate is above (replac... (read more)

3moridinamael
The UN statistics that I linked only record what we could consider to be mainstream education -- school, university, graduate school/professional degrees. A truly comprehensive sanity metric would go beyond this. That's true. One has to be on the lookout for pathological social trends masquerading as widespread rationality. For example, the current US attitude that you have to go to college is looking less and less rational by the day. That said, in some other country with 10% high school graduation rates and zero universities, I would consider any increase in those numbers to be a sanity improvement. There are a lot of complicated things going on with fertility rates. As a society becomes more sane, it also becomes more stable, and its overall fertility rate declines to the level of "elective" reproduction. In a truly sane society, one might imagine fertility rates ticking back up again, as overeducated adults actually obtain comprehensive financial security and feel comfortable having more children. I see myself as a possible example of this. My wife and I both have advanced degrees, but we chose to have three children because we can actually expect to provide three children with the kind of life that overeducated adults like us think they deserve. I see "more knowledge about the world state" as being implied within the Omohudro drives. I agree that there is a saturation point. It is useful to know that there is a really bad war in Syria. It is not useful to know that parking fines in Singapore have increased by 4% in the last quarter. Unless you're traveling to Singapore. One must diligently balance gathering information versus utilizing information. I think knowing a basic slate of facts about current events would be well correlated with sanity. What goes on this slate would be flexible and subjective, but that doesn't imply it would be useless as a measure. We're sitting at a weird point in history where we have dynamited all our social institutions except

That's... an unusual combination unless you're still in high school (or pursuing a liberal-arts major in college :-P).

Liberal arts major. I can code, but not well enough to get hired for it, and since I haven't managed to get myself to like it enough to level up in it yet, I doubt I will.

1Lumifer
So what happens when you apply your intelligence to the problem of acquiring marketable skills?

Online communities do not have a strong comparative advantage in compiling and presenting facts that are well understood. That's the sort of thing academics and journalists are already paid to do.

But academics write for other academics, and journalists don't and can't. (They've tried. They can't. Remember Vox?)

AFAIK, there isn't a good outlet for compilations of facts intended for and easily accessible by a general audience, reviews of books that weren't just written, etc. Since LW isn't run for profit and is run as outreach for, among other things, CFA... (read more)

0John_Maxwell
Academics write textbooks, popular books, and articles that are intended for a lay audience. Nevertheless, I think it's great if LW users want to compile & present facts that are well understood. I just don't think we have a strong comparative advantage. LW already has a reputation for exploring non-mainstream ideas. That attracts some and repels others. If we tried to sanitize ourselves, we probably would not get back the people who have been repulsed, and we might lose the interest of some of the people we've attracted.
2satt
Would that be Vox, Vox, or Vox? Edit, 5 minutes later: a bit more seriously, I'm not sure I'd agree that "academics write for other academics" holds as a strong generalization. Many academics focus on writing for academics, but many don't. I think the (relatively) low level of information flow from academia to general audiences is at least as much a demand-side phenomenon as a supply-side one.

1) I'm fairly intelligent, completely unskilled (aside from writing, which I have some experience in, but not the sort that I could realistically put on a resume, especially where I live), and I don't like programming. What skills should I develop for a rewarding career?

2) On a related note, the best hypothetical sales pitch for EA would be that it can provide enough career help (presumably via some combination of statistically-informed directional advice and networking, mostly the latter) to more than make up for the 10% pledge. I don't know how or whethe... (read more)

4ChristianKl
Giving EA career help is basically the mission of https://80000hours.org/
0Lumifer
My usual triple: * Something you like to do * Something you are or could become competent at * Something that other people are willing to pay you enough money for Find something that satisfies all three. That's... an unusual combination unless you're still in high school (or pursuing a liberal-arts major in college :-P).

I have a very low bar for 'interesting discussion', since the alternative for what to do with my spare time when there's nothing going on IRL is playing video games that I don't particularly like. But it's been months since I've seen anything that meets it.

It seems like internet people think insight demands originality. This isn't true. If you look at popular long-form 'insight' writers, even Yudkowsky (especially Yudkowsky), most of what they do is find earlier books and file the serial numbers off. It could be a lot easier for us to generate interesting discussion if we read more books and wrote about them, like this.

I think if you want to unify the community, what needs to be done is the creation of a hn-style aggregator, with a clear, accepted, willing, opinionated, involved BDFL, input from the prominent writers in the community (scott, robin, eliezer, nick bostrom, others), and for the current lesswrong.com to be archived in favour of that new aggregator. But even if it's something else, it will not succeed without the three basic ingredients: clear ownership, dedicated leadership, and as broad support as possible to a simple, well-articulated vision. Lesswrong tr

... (read more)