All of Psychosmurf's Comments + Replies

Great job on the fic EY. If you were to promise to write Ch 123, I would let you out of the box.

I believe that society should be organized so that people work collectively in a society focused on its own survival and power. My views are extremely collectivist, in that, the relationship between the society and its people would be a lot like the relationship between a body and its cells.

1Azathoth123
So most people would have no need to think for themselves?

For me, I stopped craving sugar after I stopped eating so much of it. Why did I stop eating it? Well, that's because I think I changed my identity from "Someone who eats whatever they want when they're hungry" to "someone who only eats what he has decided is optimal" (and sugary foods are often not in that category).

Actually, I like your idea. I am just not sure how big change could we make "merely" by studying the system and applying the advantages. More than zero, certainly, but we could still be kinda disappointed with the result, because we expected more. (Also, it may require us to sacrifice some other values.)

Well more than zero is still more than zero, right? I think if you expect to be disappointed by the results of an endeavor, then you may as well revise your expectations downward from the start, so I don't see that as much of an obstacle. (I a... (read more)

What we do think we know is that politics is a great way to bring out the irrationality in people.

Yes, and the irrationality comes in before the discussion even has a chance. In these kinds of discussions, almost without fail, people take their circumstances as a given, and then ask what set of policies would be optimal. The (mistaken) assumption being that their circumstances are immutable while policy is entirely malleable and controllable. The opposite is true. That is, we have the most control over our own situation, and the least control over publi... (read more)

1Viliam_Bur
I guess it's to be born in a powerful family of oligarchs, preferably ones that are not abusive to their children, as an intelligent non-asperger person who can learn how to play the game. Uhm... any useful reincarnation tips? Actually, I like your idea. I am just not sure how big change could we make "merely" by studying the system and applying the advantages. More than zero, certainly, but we could still be kinda disappointed with the result, because we expected more. (Also, it may require us to sacrifice some other values.) But taking advantage of the system seems to me like an experimental verification that your model is correct. This reminds me: many years ago, one of my friends expressed a strong political opinion that in capitalism you don't need any skills or work to get rich; you just have to start with some money and then it automatically makes more money. Thus people born in rich families get more rich, and others don't have a chance. I said that to make your money make more money, you still need some plan, and you need to execute it, which not literally eveyone can do. My friend objected that you just pay other people to do the work and the thinking for you, and that's all. At that moment I started playing with numbers, and showed my friend that he could get enough money to start a company and pay two or three people for one year... which according to his simplistic model should be enough to start the accelerating money spiral (he just needs to make one of them a manager, who would design plans and make the other person or two realize them; and then my friend can pay them fixed salary and take all the profit). I told him that if he really believes that, I will get him the money, in return for a part of the profit. My friend quickly updated his theory, and said that this is not enough, and you need 100 × more money to get to the level where money starts making other money automatically. (Of course, no justification for the number 100 was provided.)
2Lumifer
That's a good point, the only problem is that has nothing to do with politics as commonly understood. You are just changing subjects, not turning the politics on its head.

I don't think this is anything really new. The principle of general covariance in GR says that the laws of physics should remain invariant under a diffeomorphism. Since coordinate transformations are diffeomorphisms, and since time is relative, the equations of GR do not depend on time. Indeed, I think the search for a background independent theory of quantum gravity is exactly the approach taken by Loop Quantum Gravity.

I doubt it. For me, 1, 3, 8, and 9, are all male, whereas 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 are all female.

But the other person could anticipate this reasoning and then simply bid $3 knowing that his opponent has committed himself to not bidding beyond $2.

The Yudkowskian response is to point out that when cognitivists use the term 'good', their intuitive notion of 'good' is captured by a massive logical function that can't be expressed in simple statements

This is the weakest part of the argument. Why should anybody believe that there is a super complicated function that determines what is 'good'? What are the alternative hypotheses?

I can think of a much simpler hypothesis that explains all of the relevant facts. Our brains come equipped with a simple function that maps "is" statements to "... (read more)

1TheAncientGeek
The situation is more complex than a set of objective moral truths that everyone agrees on, but it is also more complex than complete divergence. There is basis for convergence on the wrongness of murder and theft and some other things. Complete divergence would would mean itwould be irrational to even try to find common ground , and enshrine it in law.
1LawrenceC
I think the claim isn't that there is a super-complicated function that determines what is 'good', but that the mapping from 'is' statements to 'ought' statements in the human brain is extremely complicated. If we claim that what is 'good' is what our brain considers is 'good', though, we merely encapsulate this complexity in a convenient black box. That's not to say that it's not a solution, though: have you looked into desire utilitarianism? What you're proposing here is really similar to (as I understand it) that school of moral philosophy claims. If you have time, Fyfe's A Better Place is a good introduction.

Look, dude. I'm not a doctor, and I can't really tell you what exactly happens to your body if you have an extreme calorie deficit. Nonetheless, every medical professional will tell you that you shouldn't do it.

The heart is made of muscle tissue, and the digestive system is lined with it.

0hyporational
Yeah, smooth muscle and heart muscle, different kinds of tissues from skeletal muscle. I doubt the body has trouble differentiating them.

Yes, an extreme caloric deficit would be dangerous to anybody. If the body can't make up the difference between the energy expended and energy eaten by burning fat, it will go into starvation mode, slow down, start eating muscle mass and eventually the internal organs.

0hyporational
I'm not sure I understand why the body would eat internal organs on a two month diet when there's plenty of fat and muscle to burn, or why losing some muscle mass would be dangerous.

My suspicion is that she neither experienced ordinary discomfort nor does she have a faulty metabolism. Rather, it's possible that her weight loss strategy was far too extreme. A caloric deficit of more than 25% is considered very dangerous. If she did cut her calories that far, then it's little wonder why she went through hell. Add that to the random variation in her weight caused by water and then it's obvious why she'd given up on trying to lose weight.

0hyporational
Is the caloric deficit inherently dangerous or is it that people usually cut the wrong things from their diet? Do you think there are significant dangers to an otherwise healthy person who gets all the micronutrients they need during the deficit and does it only for a month or two?
0brazil84
Yes now that I think about it that's the most likely explanation. I've been informally researching diet and weight loss for nearly two years now. One thing I've informally observed is that self-deception is a big problem in dieting. Thus when failed dieters report on their failure, they have a tendency to underestimate their caloric intake; they also have a tendency to assert that there is something wrong with their metabolism.

so she went lower, which naturally also failed to produce weight loss.

Now, you say "she", and that's important. For women, their weight fluctuates a lot more throughout the day simply due to water intake and excretion. I think it's possible that she was losing weight in the form of body fat but it failed to show up on her scale. What is recommended is that one measures their weight as a weighted moving average. There's an app on the hacker's diet site that does just that.

1200 cal/day sounds extremely low unless this person is very small. Howev... (read more)

-1brazil84
There are a lot of people who assert that they cannot lose weight on 1200 calories per day. Normally such people assert that it is their metabolism. When such people are metabolically tested, it is invariably discovered that their metabolisms are perfectly normal and they eat far more calories than they realize. Of course the claim being made by Eliezer's friend is a bit different. It's that if she has enough of a calorie deficit to lose weight, her fat cells will not give up enough energy to make up the deficit. So that she will feel terrible but not lose any weight. While I concede that there may be people out there like that, it's a pretty extraordinary claim for any individual to make. For one thing, even if your fat storage system is working perfectly normally, it will be uncomfortable to run a caloric deficit especially in the early days of a diet as your body adjusts. Such discomfort is widely reported among all dieter, successful or not. So how can the person possibly know that she isn't experiencing the normal discomfort experienced by all dieters? I would want a medical diagnosis before concluding that something was so seriously wrong with a person's fat storage system. Here's a question: Did the individual successfully lose weight in the past (even if they later regained)? If so, that's a good indication that their fat storage system is working properly.

Just what kind of a calorie deficit were you running when you experienced this?

1Eliezer Yudkowsky
I think she was probably on 1200cal/day or something like that? Maybe less? Naturally, eating more hadn't produced weight loss, so she went lower, which naturally also failed to produce weight loss.

I think that all ethical systems are just rationalizations, hence all the difficulties in using them consistently.

Your honesty is appreciated.

Personally, I would aim to change things so that the attainment of any goal whatsoever is possible for me to achieve. Essentially, to modify myself into a universe conquering, unfriendly super-intelligence.

But why rape? I mean, it just seems so arbitrary and trivial...

I believe they would term it "manufactured consent." Although, I think the two ideas are slightly different. The idea behind manufactured consent is that, in order to answer a question one way or another, you must implicitly accept its premises. It is a special, politicized case of privileging the question.

For example, if I'm imagining a room full of people, I'll have a mental model of everyone's positions in the room, which I'll then update if the story mentions that someone is stood at the left of the room and I'm imagining them at the right. However, I don't have a picture of the room in my head while I'm doing this, there's no image of where the people are stood - it's just something I 'know'.

That's very strange. I don't see how you can keep track of their positions without visualizing the room and labeling their locations visually in at least some ru... (read more)

0FermatsLastRolo
Sorry, I didn't really explain this very well - I'm not tracking them verbally. In fact, most of the time I don't tend to represent my thoughts verbally either (something else that seems to surprise people when we discuss how we think), they exist in the same state that my spacial representations of things do - at least until I need them in a verbal form (such as when I'm trying to decide on the wording of something I'm going to say or write). It's hard for me to describe the state my thoughts take to someone else, as there's no analogue outside of my own head. When I said: What I meant is that there are some sort of symbols in my mind that represent these concepts being activated, but in a more abstract way than by using the words that describe them, or by picturing the images that make me think of them. It feels a little like there's a more abstract layer that sits on top of my visual and verbal systems, and this is where I do my thinking and imagining. If I need to, I can 'bring my thought down' to these parts of my brain (like when I'm deciding what to write, or how to draw something), but it's not the default case. I guess this could be a possibility, but I do experience the "picture" to a degree if I actually make an effort to visualise it, like when I'm trying to draw a scene from my imagination. It's not really anything like what I see when I'm actually looking at something, but I assume that's the case for everyone. For example, if I try to do a puzzle that involves picturing something from a different angle, I'm able to, but it takes a conscious effort. The process I use for this doesn't seem to get involved when I'm imagining a scene from a book (unless I'm doing something like trying to picture a scene from someone else's point of view, at which point I have to stop reading briefly while I build up a picture).

Inside Harry Potter's pineal gland is not an immortal soul, but the level five Tegmark multiverse.

Hmmm... makes sense...

It's interesting that the only proposed alternative to Azathoth in this discussion so far is government intervention of one form or another (the government itself is just another creation of Azathoth). But there exist many more such as changing the fundamental institutions of our society, including our very notions of property and democracy.

0prase
The parent comment didn't suggest specifically government intervention as an alternative.

As to the question for why it works, it seems to me that it's because it takes into account the rationality of each participant (by using the accuracy of their prediction about how many people will agree with them) and then gives the more rational participants' answers greater weight.

If that's the case, then any rationality test could be used as a truth serum. If you want to know whether or not string theory is true, you're probably better off asking people who don't believe that the Earth is flat.

Will somebody please tell me why this is being downvoted so heavily? I was just making a joke...

4MarkusRamikin
Downvotes are basically "no"-answers to the question "would I want to see more of this here?" And even though I got your joke, I certainly would not want this place to start looking more like that. Both due to style and due to the fact that it's noise (doesn't have anything to say). On the other hand, upvoted you for politely asking for feedback.
-3Eugine_Nier
Useful advise: on the internet no one can tell when you're being sarcastic.
7wedrifid
Your joke was poorly calibrated to this audience. (Further, the audience to whom that joke is well calibrated are obnoxious prats.) TheOtherDave's description of why the joke doesn't work here is spot on. In some (most) circumstances it is possible to score cheap social points at the expense of anyone who admits ignorance. That is discouraged here. You can still get away with it (unfortunately) but at least have to do so with a modicum of subtlety. Another factor is that things being "too deep" usually just means they are bullshit. It is the "deepness" that should be penalized, not those people who admit that the Emperor Has No Clothes!
7TheOtherDave
In general, downvotes reflect people's interest in seeing less of the thing being downvoted. Accordingly, I'd recommend making fewer jokes of this sort in the future. More specifically, I suspect the SMS-shorthand message style plays a role here, as does insulting Fyrius for asking a question.
3Psychosmurf
Will somebody please tell me why this is being downvoted so heavily? I was just making a joke...

I'd give most people who even attempt to assign probabilities to their beliefs in the first place enough credit that they can perform very simple arithmetical operations.

You can shorten the table by about half if you eliminate the negative logarithms by using the laws of logarithms.

For example, -20 decibles in terms of probability is just 100% - (The probability corresponding to +20 decibles), and the odds ratios simply occur in reverse order. That is 20 db = 100:1 and -20 db = 1:100

2handoflixue
Given the chart is for those who aren't mathematically inclined, I'd suggest this might not be a great idea.

Who says we have to restrict our choice of mates to Less Wrong?

"100%."

Oh man, had me laughing for a good while with this one. Nice job! ^_^

I don't think self-awareness and sentience are the only dimensions along which minds can differ. The kinds of goals a mind tries to attain are much more relevant. I wouldn't want to ensure the survival of a mind that would make it more difficult for me to carry out my own goals. For example, let's say a self-aware and sentient paperclip maximizer were to be built. Can killing it be said to be unethical?

I think the minds of most non-human animals (with maybe the exception of some species of hominids) and human sociopaths are so different from ours that treating them unequally is justified in many situations.

0MugaSofer
Stick it in a matrix.
0syllogism
The maximiser would get a "vote" in the utility calculation, just as every other mind would get a vote. i.e., its preferences are fully considerable. We're performing an expected utility calculation that weighs each mind's preferences equally. So the maximiser has a strong preference not to die, which is a negative on killing it. But assuming it's going to tile the universe with paperclips, its vote would get out-weighed by the votes of all the other minds.

Makes me take the warnings not to be seduced by my imagination far more seriously. Excellent work.

1Stuart_Armstrong
Cool. Didn't quite understand what you meant by seduction by imagination, though...

I experience numbers as being on a line that runs left to right, swerves to the left at some number, continues upwards, and then returns to running from left to right. My experience of temperatures, people's ages, and the days of months is similar, but with different patterns of where the turns are. However, I think it may actually go right to left somewhere in the millions, though I'm not sure. Negative numbers run to the left forever, as far as I can tell. Calendar years are slightly different, in that they take more rounded turns and seem to be capable... (read more)

Someone recommended HPMOR on another forum. Then I found LessWrong by googling the author's name.

Why don't we start treating the sum of log_2 of the probability — conditional on every available piece of information — you assign to every true sentence, as the best measure of your epistemic success?

Wait. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something here, but how are we going to decide what a true sentence is independently of all of our available information?

0Ronny Fernandez
We won't be able to decide. But reality will.

Simple google search yielded surprisingly interesting answers:

http://www.ukskeptics.com/article.php?dir=articles&article=why_people_use_alternative_medicine.php

The tendency is that people are more likely to use alternative treatments the more educated they are. The level of education a person has attained is probably the the best indicator that a person is likely to use some form of alternative treatment.

Being intelligent or well educated does not mean that a person is going to think more logically; in fact, it often results in them becoming better a

... (read more)
8prase
Speculation: to an uneducated person medicine appears as magic. An educated person understands that doctors aren't conjurers and evaluates it as a bug; he wants magic to save his life.

Are you allowed to use someone else's brain? If so, you could ask them to hide it.

6VincentYu
Easy - just build a seed AI whose only goal is to prevent your future self from finding the coin, and let it FOOM. Surely nothing can go wrong.

Thanks for the reminder.

For anyone still interested, it's not too late to sign up.

0RomanDavis
Is it too late now?
2Psy-Kosh
You're welcome. :)

This detachment itself seems to help accuracy; I was struck by a psychology study demonstrating that not only are people better at falsifying theories put forth by other people, they are better at falsifying when pretending it is held by an imaginary friend!

I think we've just derived a new heuristic. Pretend that your beliefs are held by your imaginary friend.

7Kaj_Sotala
An explanation of why this works. Short version: suppose that reasoning in the sense of "consciously studying the premises of conclusions and evaluating them, as well as generating consciously understood chains of inference" evolved mainly to persuade others of your views. Then it's only to be expected that we will only study and generate theories at a superficial level by default, because there's no reason to waste time evaluating our conscious justifications if they aren't going to be used for anything. If we do expect them to be subjected to closer scrutiny by outsiders, then we're much more likely to actually inspect the justifications for flaws, so that we'll know how to counter any objections the others will bring up.
gwern110

I agree. When I first read the essay, I went to myself so that is why 'rubber-duck debugging' works!

0lessdazed
Does falsification improve if I imagine they are the beliefs of the imaginary friend of an imaginary friend?

Remember that "H causes e" and "H implies e" are two very different statements. The map is not the territory.

In order to show that H causes e you would have to show that the probabilities always factor as P(e & H) = P(H)P(e|H) and not as P(e & H) = P(e)P(H|e).

For example, rain causes wet grass, but wet grass does not cause rain, even though the Bayesian inference goes both ways.

9Richard_Kennaway
Both of these are mathematical identities. It is not possible for one to hold and not the other; both are always true. Causal analysis of probabilities is a lot more complicated.