All of RationallyOptimistic's Comments + Replies

By "not fully responsible" I was trying to sidestep a free will debate. My point was that "bad" people might just have "bad" brains; perhaps they were exposed to too much serotonin while in the womb or inherited a bad set of genes, and that plus some trauma early in life might have damaged them in such a way that they were willing to commit unspeakable acts that "normal" people would not. I think it's not unlikely that whatever makes a serial killer a serial killer will eventually be identified, screened for and cured. But what to do with existing serial killers is different problem.

Probability and statistics.

For example, if you are interested in a particular major, what sort of employment prospects can you reasonably expect from it? Can you afford the school you want to go to, and if not, what sort of student loan debt are you looking at and will you be able to pay it off with your desired major? How many unemployed or under-employed graduates are there who got an unremunerative major from a school they couldn't afford, or worse, went to graduate school in that subject with the hope of getting a good adjunct appointment and ultimatel... (read more)

2Curiouskid
Yeah. I'm trying to decide what I want to do to mitigate existential risk so that I can pick a college major so that I can pick a college to go to. I'd love help at each step of the process. I'll be the guinea pig for the first decision.

Study cognitive biases and fallacies and use them to examine your thought patterns and actions. Cognitive dissonance is, in my opinion, the most important, as it allows people to make mistakes without recognizing them as such and thus to make them again and again. Every time you make a decision that has unexpected consequences, even if they are favorable, ask yourself honestly, was this really a good decision? What evidence did you have at the time to justify it? Would you make it again, and if so, why? Would other people agree with your reasoning?

People c... (read more)

5malthrin
As Kahneman points out in his new book, failures of reasoning are much easier to recognize in others than in ourselves. His book is framed around introducing the language of heuristics and biases to office water-cooler gossip. Practicing on the hardest level (self-analysis) doesn't seem like the best way to grow stronger.