All of roryokane's Comments + Replies

I agree. Specifically, they were probably ponifying the title of the book Permutation City by Greg Egan.

I have never understood what music teachers mean when they say things like this.

Maybe you will find my definitions, which relate to the physical properties of the sound, helpful.

As for your two other terms, those are harder to define. "Round" I would have trouble understanding too... but I think in the context of a choir, it might mean a note sung by holding your mouth in a round 'O' shape rather than by stretching it vertically or horizontally. The shape of your mouth changes the overtones, even when you're singing the same note.

As for "purple", even t... (read more)

Are there people who instinctively know what a 'bright sound' is yet don't automatically visualise such sounds as being brightly coloured? Or who instinctively know what a 'hammering note' is without feeling any physical pain when they hear one?

Yes, I am an example of both such types of people. However, this is not because I think of those words as arbitrary, but because I associate those words with different concepts. I'll elaborate on that.

But first, I'll say the difficulty I have with your question: I'm not sure where to draw the line between "having... (read more)

4Angela Pretorius
All but three of your definitions are exactly the same as the definitions that I would give. Split notes are what novice brass players produce. To hammer a note is to play a note that is loud and sudden and short. Music is flowing if every note feels like it is the natural continuation of the notes before it. So an unanticipated discord or pause or change in volume will break the flow, but if it feels like the music is building up to a sudden change then the flow will be broken by not having this sudden change.

As an alternative to switching away from WordPress entirely, you could switch to a third-party blog post editor that integrates with WordPress.

The only third-party blog post editor I know of is MarsEdit ($50), which only runs on macOS. I tried out MarsEdit once by writing a few drafts in its WYSISYG mode, and that went fine, but I can’t attest to the quality of its other features like publishing a post or editing in Markdown.

2Zvi
I'm using Windows, so that one's out. Would be happy to consider a good third-party editor. For now my third-party editor is 'write in Google Docs or word'.

I don’t personally find keeping secrets a significant enough hardship to be worth asking people to tell me fewer secrets. I just asked a friend of mine, and they feel the same as me.

My hypothesis is that you feel differently because you hear a lot more secrets, and each additional secret carries an additional mental burden to not reveal it. Perhaps when you know too many secrets, you have a greater meta-challenge of separating them from each other and remembering which groups each secret can and cannot be discussed with.

What are the factors behind one’s me... (read more)

The True Prisoner’s Dilemma is another post in this genre of “explaining game theory problems intuitively”.

Thanks. Link updated and wrong claim removed.

For transparency, this was the original sentence:

One can’t link to sections within a PDF, but the paper is on page 4 of the PDF (page 8 if you include front matter).

There’s a formatting error in this part of the post:

Clone the two repos:

git clone https://github.com/LessWrong2/Lesswrong2 git clone https://github.com/LessWrong2/Vulcan.git

It should be a code block so that the newline is preserved. That makes it easier to notice that you have to clone two repos:

Clone the two repos:

git clone https://github.com/LessWrong2/Lesswrong2
git clone https://github.com/LessWrong2/Vulcan.git

Also, I found this description confusing:

If you are creating a branch for an existing issue, use this naming schema: branchTitle[iss

... (read more)
6Raemon
Thanks. I've added a newline for the first one, and just deleted the entire paragraph about the branch naming because we never really stuck to it.

I took the survey.

The LiveJournal tag is also named “fiction”. There are 10 posts under it.

I’m not sure if reformatting the home page would have made any difference for Nancy’s friend. Was she on the home page, or the Google search page for “less wrong”?

Welcome to Less Wrong
lesswrong.com/ ▾
Less Wrong is an online community for people who want to apply the discovery of biases like the conjunction fallacy, the affect heuristic, and scope insensitivity ...

Google quotes that sentence out of context, so its wording is especially important.

The old introduction may be obscure, but at least it is informative. A visitor can follow the links …

I can’t tell from Nancy’s anecdote, but it is possible that her friend couldn’t follow the links on the home page, because she was actually on the Google search page:

Welcome to Less Wrong
lesswrong.com/ ▾
Less Wrong is an online community for people who want to apply the discovery of biases like the conjunction fallacy, the affect heuristic, and scope insensitivity ...

The sentence’s wording without links is important because Google quotes it in plainte... (read more)

-1Pancho_Iba
Well, the sentence's wording without links is important, but maybe if your friend suggests a site, you can try not being so lazy as not clicking the link to the page.

Writing on Less Wrong makes it easier to reach a large audience. New personal blogs would have trouble getting readers unless they were advertised in strategic places.

On my midterm exam in my college class Computer and Networking Security, I scored 88%, the highest in the class. About 18 other students took the test, and the mean of our scores was 62%. The exam will be graded on a curve, so my score is probably equivalent to A+.

I was the second-to-last student to finish the exam. This surprised me at the time, but now I think it must have been because I took more time to thoroughly think about the questions and show my work. On the other hand, I studied very little – only for 20 minutes, right before the exam. I am thankful that that turned out to be enough, and proud that I skimmed the slides effectively enough and paid enough attention in class that that’s all I needed.

One transportation option many people would not think of is an adult kick scooter. Kick scooters are most useful for speeding up trips of short distances, up to a few miles, on sidewalks and across roads. As of my research a few months ago, the cheapest one that would fit a non-short adult was the Razor A5 Lux Scooter, which currently costs $100.

The main advantage of a kick scooter is that unlike a bicycle, you can legally and more safely ride them on the sidewalk, so you don’t have to focus as much on navigating car or pedestrian traffic. Compared to othe... (read more)

1mare-of-night
Does anyone know whether the handlebars tend to vibrate when you ride? I know it sounds like a small thing, but the scooter I had as a child did this and the feeling of it drove me mad for some reason.
roryokane390

I took the survey. Though I can’t remember my SAT score, which I know I put on the last survey – I wish I had saved my answers last year.

JohnnyCat120

You are probably one of the few people who can identify an exact year when you forgot your SAT scores.

All morals are axioms, not theorems, and thus all moral claims are tautological.

Whatever morals we choose, we are driven to choose them by the morals we already have – the ones we were born with and raised to have. We did not get our morals from an objective external source. So no matter what your morals, if you condemn someone else by them, your condemnation will be tautoligcal.

6lackofcheese
I don't agree. Yes, at some level there are basic moral claims that behave like axioms, but many moral claims are much more like theorems than axioms. Derived moral claims also depend upon factual information about the real world, and thus they can be false if they are based on incorrect beliefs about reality.

A better slogan for that purpose might simply be "Politics makes for bad examples". Straight to the point. It needs explanation, just like the "mind-killer" slogan, but after the explanation it is easy to remember the reasoning behind it.

2Shmi
I am not sure this conveys the point, but it is certainly an improvement on "politics is a/the mind-killer". The issue is making clear that one should avoid unnecessary/unintended polarization in an argument, and, especially in the US context, political arguments and examples are especially prone to this failure mode.

PredictionBook might help with measuring improvement, in a limited way. You can use it to measure how often your predictions are correct, and whether you are getting better over time. And you could theoretically ask LW-ers and non-LW-ers to make some predictions on PredictionBook, and then compare their accuracy to see if Less Wrong helped. Making accurate predictions of likelihood is a real skill that certainly has the possibility to be very useful – though it depends on what you’re predicting.

roryokane240

“If only there were irrational people somewhere, insidiously believing stupid things, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and mock them. But the line dividing rationality and irrationality cuts through the mind of every human being. And who is willing to mock a piece of his own mind?”

(With apologies to Solzhenitsyn).

– Said Achmiz, in a comment on Slate Star Codex’s post “The Cowpox of Doubt”

-5Nornagest
3Vaniver
The original quotation on LW.

I would think the difference is that sociable people feel comfortable even in a less formal gathering, when you don’t know of anyone you would particularly like to talk to and nobody has asked you to talk. Even in such a situation, a sociable person could find something interesting to do, involving other people, and be reasonably confident that they are not being rude or boring, and end up enjoying whatever they find to do.

roryokane110

I took the survey.

I chose to Defect on the monetary reward prize question. Why?

  • I realized that the prize money is probably contributed by Yvain. And if $60-or-less were to be distributed between a random Less Wrong member and Yvain, I would rather as much of it as possible go to Yvain. This is because I know Yvain is smart and writes interesting posts, so the money could help him to contribute something to the world that another could not. Answering Defect lowers the amount of prize money, making Yvain keep more of it.
  • Also, I would rather I have the $60
... (read more)

Link to the story: Friendship is Optimal. Though I wouldn’t call the story as a whole a horror story; rather, it has some fridge horror. And it is particularly horrifying to those interested in the singularity, rather than to rationalists in general.

1ikrase
Doesn't the recursive fic Caelum Est Conterrens explore the horror aspects a bit more?
4DanielLC
I was referring to the recursive fanfic, Friendship Is Optimal: Caelum Est Conterrens.

7. … I think of several things related to work that I really want to remember … as I'm trying to fall asleep …

I use my smartphone (Android) in cases similar to this, though it’s not usually work-related stuff that I think of. I have the sound recording app WAVE Recorder in my dock / quick launch area. If I want to note something for later with the minimum of fuss, it’s easy to unlock my phone, open the app, hit record, and briefly describe whatever it is that I thought of (or hum it, if it’s a piece of music). Then I just hit stop and lock the phone aga... (read more)

The flaw in the argument is simply that it assumes E(X/Y) > 1 implies that E(X) > E(Y).

I didn’t understand this sentence very well at first, because the inequality on the right is two steps removed from the one on the left. I find this version clearer:

The flaw in the argument is simply that it assumes E(X/Y) > 1 implies that E(X) / E(Y) > 1. (If E(X) / E(Y) > 1, that would imply that E(X) > E(Y).)

roryokane130

A hypothetical based on an amalgamation of my own experiences during a co-op:

You work as a programmer at a company that writes websites with the programming languages VBScript and VB.Net. You have learned enough about those languages to do your job, but you think the Ruby language is much more efficient, and you write your personal programming projects in Ruby. You occasionally go to meetings in your city for Ruby programmers, which talk about new Ruby-related technologies and techniques.

You are nearing the deadline for the new feature you were assigned

... (read more)

Yvain posted a follow-up post, “Extreme Mnemonics”, on his own blog. Readers have posted many comments.

For one thing, I try not to read many in-progress fanfics. I’ve been burned so many times by starting to read a story and finding out that it’s abandoned that I rarely start reading new incomplete stories – at least with an expectation of them being finished. That means I don’t have to remember so many things at once – when I finish reading one fanfiction, I can forget it. Even if it’s incomplete, I usually don’t try to check back on it unless it has a fast update schedule – I leave it for later, knowing I’ll eventually look at my Favorites list again and ... (read more)

A variant of this question was discussed on Mathematics Stack Exchange. The top answer has a good explanation of the nature of this question – “vg'f n zhygvcyr-pubvpr inevnag […] bs gur pynffvpny yvne cnenqbk” (un-ROT13).

The presence of so many Kyon: Big Damn Hero files in the repo is kind of confusing. Especially kbdh_trope_list.txt, which looked interesting, but then confused me in that it didn’t talk about Trust in God. If possible, you should remove the KBDH files from the repo.

If you want to keep those files around to use as references, you could move them into a separate folder out of the repo. Or keep them in your working copy but not commit them, with the help of a .gitignore file. Or at least move the files to their own folder so we don’t have to figure out which story each file belongs to.

0DanielLC
I figured that as long as you're downloading a lot of that stuff anyway, I might as well leave in the KBDH stuff so you could see that one too. You can get there from the chapter select. I probably should put that on the readme. It might be a good idea to move the KBDH stuff to a different folder though, and I should probably take out the trope list. It will probably take a while for me to get around to anything, though.

You could also call this “sieze the Schelling point”. You’re setting a Schelling fence for making the change between “the maximal probability moment” and “right after that” – if you slide past the Schelling fence, you can expect you will fail to make the change, and that encourages you to make the change now.

Indeed. To give an example, I currently have a bad habit of often being late for my first class of the day (in college). It’s a 50-minute long math lecture. When I’m late, I might arrive outside the classroom 15 minute after class has started. Standing outside, before I go in, I have an urge to skip the class entirely to avoid the embarassment of entering and sitting down in the middle of lecture, which would slightly disrupt class and draw the professor’s attention to my lateness. But when I gather my courage and enter anyway, I’m usually glad that I did, because I learn useful things in the remaining 35 minutes of class.

6Nornagest
TV Tropes is unreliable on Japanese culture. While it's fond of Japanese media, connection demographics show that Japanese editors are disproportionately rare (even after taking the language barrier into account); almost all the contributors to a page like that are likely to be language students or English-speaking Japanophiles, few of whom have any substantial experience with the language or culture in the wild. This introduces quite a bit of noise; for example, the site's had problems in the past with people reading meanings into Japanese words that don't exist or that are much more specific than they are in the wild. I don't know myself whether the ancestor is accurate, but it'd be wise to take it with a grain of salt.

A book that greatly improved my code was Clean Code by Robert C. Martin. It helped me understand things such as when code comments are appropriate and how to split code into well-factored functions. The book’s main flaw is that it’s sometimes hard to tell which of its advice is Java-specific and which is widely applicable. But I definitely still recommend it.

The author wrote another book, The Clean Coder, which is also about improving as a programmer. It’s not about coding well – it’s “a code of conduct for professional programmers”, and talks about things... (read more)

roryokane190

When creating such a general algorithm, we must keep a human limitation in mind: subconscious, unsystemized thought. A practical algorithm must account for and exploit it.

There are two types of subconscious thought that an algorithm has to deal with. One is the top-level type that is part of being a human. It is only our subconscious that can fire off the process of choosing to apply a certain conscious algorithm. We won’t even start running our algorithm if we don’t notice that it applies in this situation, or if we don’t remember it, or if we feel bored ... (read more)

0Fhyve
I suspect that in some cases the subconscious function will be more accurate than most sub-algorithms and you would choose it because of that.
1moridinamael
This is ... one of my favorite posts, ever.
roryokane250

I would call the “systems” you describe “algorithms”.

Looking at your examples, I see that your two “lists of tips” are slightly different. The first list is a combination of tips (aim for 22-30 workers) and facts about the situation (workers mine minerals; that’s how things work). The facts describe the problem you are designing an algorithm to solve. The tips describe solutions you would like your algorithm to aim for when those tips are applicable, but they are general goals, not specific actions. Your second list has no facts, only tips. And those tips ... (read more)

1passive_fist
Exactly, and Abelson & Sussman describe this problem eloquently in their book, Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs (section 1.1.7): In the footnotes they further elaborate on this, but the important takeaway point is that in the general case there may be no way to convert declarative knowledge to imperative knowledge. Indeed, if there were an easy way to do this, the whole field of computer programming would be obsolete.

A link to the xkcd comic Working that was mentioned. Note that the comic also has bonus text in the image’s tooltip.

Yes, I often notice this same morphing of how people look in my memory. After briefly meeting a new person and then leaving them, I often try to remember their face and find the details slipping through my mental grasp, until I’m imagining someone else, such as a classmate from high school, who I’m more familiar with and who looks a bit like the new person. When this happens, I think to myself, “oh, it’s happened again, I’ve forgotten what they look like already”.

roryokane290

I took the survey.

One thing I was unsure about: the appropriate answer to the question “Referrals: How did you find out about Less Wrong?”. I answered “Referred by a link on another blog”. But I actually investigated and discovered Less Wrong after seeing a bunch of links to it on Hacker News. Hacker News is really a link aggregation site or social news site, not a blog. But I thought that that answer was better than choosing “Other” and writing in “link from an aggregation site”.

Link to translation: “N tbyq fgne vs lbh qrpbqrq guvf cneg.” through ROT13

Yes, I know it kind of ruins the point.

A decision matrix is a very simple tool that can give an overview of an argument. Points for and against each alternative have positive and negative values.

However, if those values themselves depend on other calculations, or are interdependent, the decision matrix provides no way to display that, so it is not a complete modelling language.

0staticIP
Not quite in the same class as the listed software. Useful, I've used them, but they get really complicated with more variables. If you look at what they've got, it doesn't exactly seem bayesian. They don't work of probability, but off of absolute truths. Debating each piece of minutia in a sort of tree structure. It could definitely be improved upon.

My unfinished outline-form notes on solving Pascal’s Mugging:

  • Pascal’s Mugger (http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/pascal.pdf) possible solutions
    • Off – Pascal’s estimate might be farther off than the offered benefit, and how does he know how far to compensate?
    • Counter – there is a (smaller) probability that the man will give you the same amount of Utility only if you refuse. (Also a probability that will give way more Utility if refuse, but probably countered by probability that will give way more if accept.)
      • This seems to be Eliezer’s view, mentioned in Ov
... (read more)

This solution doesn’t work. Why? Because I pledge that if anyone fails to accept a “Pascal’s Mugging style trade-off with full knowledge of the problem, then I will slowly torture to death 3^^^^3 sentient minds”. I’ve just canceled out your pledge.

You could say all your allies take the same pledge as you, and you have more allies than me, but that’s getting too far into the practicalities of our lives and too far away from a general solution. A general solution can’t assume that the person considering whether to accept a Mugging will have heard either of o... (read more)

4Vladimir_Nesov
Your argument doesn't address the problem with Static_IP's post, and indeed it has exactly the same problem: it is not an argument/explanation/clarification, but instead it's one more mugging, see nyan_sandwich's comment. The problem is not that someone has put out a Pascal's mugging and now we have to pay up, unless the mugger is neutralized in some way. If it turns out that we in fact should pay up, the correct decision is easily performed. The problem is that this situation is not understood. The theoretical model of expected utility plus some considerations about prior suggest that the correct decision is to pay the mugger, yet other considerations suggest otherwise, and there are potential flaws with the original argument, which motivates a search for better understanding of the situation. Modifying the situation in a way that makes the problem go away doesn't solve the original problem, it instead shifts attention away from it.
5Epiphany
You're not thinking big enough. If anyone ever accepts a Pascal's mugging again, my fuzzy celery God will execute a worse Pascal's mugging than any other in existence no matter what the original Pascal's mugging is. P.S. You'll never find out what muggings fuzzy celery God executes because they're always unpredictable. This makes them impossible to disprove. (My brother always hated having fights like this with me.)
0staticIP
As an omnipotent god entity I pledge to counter any any attempt at pascals muggings, as long as the mugger actually has the power to do what they say. Yep. You did, or you would have if you could actually carry through on your threats. I maintain that you can't. Now it's a question of which of our claims is more likely to be true. That's kind of the point here. When you're dealing with that small or a probability then the calculation becomes useless and marred by noise. If I'm correct, and I'm one of the very few entities capable of doing this, who happen across your world anyway, then I can cancel out your claim and a bunch of future claims. If you're correct then I can't. So the question is, how unlikely are my claims? How unlikely are yours? Are your claims significantly more likely (on the tiny scales we're working with) then mine? But yes, now that I look at it more in depth (thank you for the links), it's obvious that this is a reiteration of the "counter" solution, but with actual specific and viable threats behind it.
1roryokane
My unfinished outline-form notes on solving Pascal’s Mugging: * Pascal’s Mugger (http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/pascal.pdf) possible solutions * Off – Pascal’s estimate might be farther off than the offered benefit, and how does he know how far to compensate? * Counter – there is a (smaller) probability that the man will give you the same amount of Utility only if you refuse. (Also a probability that will give way more Utility if refuse, but probably countered by probability that will give way more if accept.) * This seems to be Eliezer’s view, mentioned in Overcoming Bias – The Pascal’s Wager Fallacy Fallacy * As shown by the “smaller”, I don’t think this argument completely explains the problem. * Known – the gambit is known, so that makes it more likely that he is tricking you – but sadly, no effect, I think. * Impossible – [My Dad]’s suspect argument: there is absolutely zero probability of the mugger giving you what he promises. There is no way to both extend someone’s lifespan and make them happy during it. * He could just take you out of the Matrix into a place where any obstacles to lengthy happiness are removed. There's still a probability of that, right? * God – maybe level of probability involved is similar to that of God's existence, with infinite heaven affecting the decision * Long-term – maybe what we should do in a one-shot event is different from what we should do if we repeated that event many times. * Assumption – one of the stated assumptions, such as utilitarianism or risk-neutrality, is incorrect and should not actually be held.

My answer: Attributing causation is part of our human instincts. We are born with some desire to do it. We may develop that skill by reflecting on it during our lifetime.

(How did we humans develop that instinct? Evolution, probably. Humans who had mutated to reason about causality died less – for instance, they might have avoided drinking from a body of water after seeing something poisonous put in, because they reasoned that the poison addition would cause the water to be poisonous.)

7Richard_Kennaway
This is a non-explanation, or rather, three non-explanations. "Human nature does it" explains no more than "God does it". "It's part of human nature because it must have been adaptive in the past" likewise. Causal reasoning works, but why does it work? And "mutated to reason about causality" is just saying "genes did it", which is still not an advance on "God did it".

I was able to download a copy from http://www.manyebooks.org/download/The_Strategy_of_Conflict.html, which links to http://www.en8848.com.cn/d/file/soft/Nonfiction/Obooks/201012/8bbb35724dcac415a5ecd74a62b2ba97.rar as the actual download link. That version is a 4.8 MB PDF file. It has equivalent image quality to the 17.4 MB PDF file hosted by Alicorn and is a smaller file.

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