We have a set of introductory slides we can share, but many of the rules are still under development and known only to the developers. Hope this helps!
arXiv doesn't support pdfs that are composed of different pdfs. Below is a link to full resolution versions of the tables, but I wasn't able to splice these into the arXiv submission. I will reformat the tables for a revised version.
http://www.rossgritz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/tables.pdf
I think your timeline is on point regarding capabilities. However, I do not entirely follow the jump from expert-level programming and brute-force search to an "explosive feedback loop of AI progress". You point out that there is a "clear-cut search space" in machine learning, which is true, and I agree that brute-force search could be expected to yield some progress, likely substantial progress, whereas in other scientific disciplines similar progress would be unlikely. I will even concede that explosive progress is possible, but I fail to grasp why it is... (read more)