All of rosyatrandom's Comments + Replies

Well, I made the mistake of looking at one of the pictures from Bucha, and... 

... I don't think I'm going to be feeling rational about anything for a while. I have 2 small kids, and another on the way, and right now all I want to do is cry while tearing the throat out of the people responsible.

8ryan_b
I understand.  Consider that it might not be a mistake. It is easy to condemn atrocity, but condemnation means nothing. To look square at the consequence, that is hard, and crushing sorrow is the price. But someone has to bear witness for these people. Today that person is you. You are going to be ok.
2lc

"every possible universe exists"

Under what kind of metaphysics or semantics could this sentence not be a tautology?

The universal trouble is that long-term, flexible and 'ethical' strategies always seem to get trumped by

  • short-term unethical power strategies (i.e., the mafioso type)
  • short-term amoral selfish/corrupt behaviour (i.e., iron law of bureaucracy, disaster capitalism)

It's easier to build than to destroy or steal, sadly

Answer by rosyatrandom60

Japan can be incredibly inflexible, rigid, and inconsistent with the rules and expectations they follow. There is also a great deal of respect/homage paid to Buddhism and Daoism.

In short, I really don't think rationality is by any means a linear metric, and you certainly couldn't use it as a value-measure of how 'good' a society is.

5ChristianKl
The Japanese also managed to invent new superstitions like the one around the meaning of human blood groups that we in the West didn't. (they have similar stereotypes then about people's astrological signs)
3Randomized, Controlled
Also, before and during WW2, Japan had the most shockingly horrifying death-cult-y style leadership and culture. Dan Carlin does a good job sketching this in his Supernova in the East series.

I just wish the throat swabs didn't trigger my gag reflex.

 

I didn't even know I had a gag reflex until I took one, and it makes the swab pretty useless as I can't get near my tonsils without having to stop before I throw up.

2Celarix
Probably not helpful today, but I've had success in reducing my horrible gag reflex by brushing my tongue for 10 seconds each day. I've been doing it for a few years, but I think I got most of my benefit in the first few months. For something more likely to be helpful today, I've also had success with Chloraseptic throat spray to temporarily numb my throat.

Without other people, any existence would be

  • mind-numbingly dull
  • excruciatingly pointless
  • full of grief and loss; where are my loved-ones? My children?!
1Flaglandbase
Not if it's an incomplete or low-fidelity mind reconstruction, and that may be the only type possible with this method.

That's the only hope I have for escaping death,

Well... there is, of course, any variation of quantum immortality

I have a highly specific vision of a virtual reality heaven. Basically, I would be left alone for all eternity on my personal island

Funnily enough, you've just described, for me, a virtual reality hell

3Viliam
Somehow, I am undecided. I guess the experience of "nothing could go wrong" is so foreign to me that I have no idea how it would make me feel with regards to needing or not needing other people.

On quarantining/geo-boxing:

Even if the different regions have similar numbers of cases, is there an argument to be made for confinement in that it keeps variants more isolated?

1tkpwaeub
I've wondered about that too. And not just for Covid

Indeed, since there is no absolute distinction between the parts of reality that are 'you' and those that aren't, then solipsism isn't by itself a meaningful concept.

I presume that such treatments are a threat to the narrative that people bring Covid-19 upon them by being irresponsible (read: sinful) and thus must make various Sacrifices to the Gods in the hopes of making this stop. Treatments aren’t a sacrifice, and aren’t a morality play. In addition, any mention of them, or any encouragement, would lead people to be less eager to get vaccinated or take other preventative measures, and we can’t have that.

I honestly have no idea what you think people are actually thinking here, except that it seems utterly ridiculous

1ztzuliios
Maybe Zvi thinks people think: >In addition, any mention of them, or any encouragement, would lead people to be less eager to get vaccinated or take other preventative measures, and we can’t have that. This is very similar to the Faucian notion of saying whatever, true or untrue, leads the public to take the actions he wants them to take, as was the case with masks, and we could find out is the case with something else in the future; we can't know when we're being lied to in order for the greater good to be served. But personally, I think you can explain such an outlook entirely by association with earlier treatments. Treatments have generally been well-received by one of the major American political tribes, while vaccines have been not well received. It's natural for the opposing tribe to invert this, and it seems like they have, to the point where vaccines are the only acceptable solution and treatments are evil.  This situation reminds me of the very beginning of the pandemic, when de Blasio was tweeting "New York is still open, go out" and Twitter was screaming for a lockdown. The silence about Paxlovid is rather deafening in comparison.

It might be useful to draw up the happy pathway to developing mRNA vaccines against spike proteins, and examining all the issues along the way.

My (very limited). understanding:

  • Coronaviruses use spike proteins to enter target cells
  • The immune system can
    • learn to recognise these proteins as foreign, then
    • generate a response when it encounters them
  • mRNA vaccines can
    • cause host tissue to display identified spike proteins
    • initiate the same immune response mechanism above
  • Mutations to spike proteins can
    • occasionally increase/not-decrease virus fitness (transmissibility
... (read more)

I would expect the situation to be analogous to any situation that requires large socio-economic upheaval but 'punishes' individuals who try to start the ball rolling.

cough Climate Change Crisis cough

Myopic vested interests and inertia will scupper the needed changes, even if almost everyone acknowledges their necessity in principle.

We don't live in a world of clear perceptions and communications about abstract, many-times-removed ethical trade-offs. 

We're humans, with a tiny little window focused on the trivia of our day-to-day lives, trying to talk to other humans doing the same thing.

Sometimes, we manage to rise a little above that, which is wonderful, and we need to work out how to co-ordinate civilisation better in that direction.

But mostly we are just stumbling about in the mud, and don't pretend that ridiculous sophist exercises in philosophical equivalence have any relati... (read more)

6aphyer
Since you are posting on this thread, I am going to assume that you probably own a computer. Even if your computer is quite cheap, its cost trades off against a substantial probability of being able to save a child's life (much greater than the loss incurred by a 15-second delay). I conclude therefore that by your own morality you should be shunned by any being with decent ethics, for having sacrificed your soul and chosen a worthless computer instead.

There's probably only one kind of fundamental abstraction: can A represent B if you squint real hard? Can 'nothing' represent 'something'*? If so, perhaps that's all you need to get 'everything'.

 

* Like how you can build numbers up from the empty set: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-theoretic_definition_of_natural_numbers

And strings/digits themselves are just a bunch of bits in fancy clothes.

At some point, years ago, I decided that reality was basically just 'nothing', endlessly abstracted, and what can you do? :_D

I'm not sure we're dealing with quantifiable abstractions here

1Jack R
I also had this thought, though I'm not sure--what kind of abstractions are we talking about?

Oh yes, 'real' is a fuzzy concept once you allow Boltzmann/Dust approaches. Things just... are, and can be represented by other things that also just are...

2avturchin
In his article Mueller says that no physics exists at all. Only math world exists, and dust minds are just random strings of digits. 
Answer by rosyatrandom120

Yes, and also no.

 

That is, there are Boltzmann Brains that represent my current mental state, and there are also 'normal' universes containing 'normal' brains doing the same thing, and there are probably a bunch of other things too.

All of them are me.

1avturchin
If there are no real worlds, but only BBs all along, this argument doesn't work.  However, it is still not a big problem, as Dust theory still works, and for any BB there will be another BB which represent its next mental state. So from inside it will look like normal world. Mueller wrote a mathematical formalism for this.
4simon
Even if the vast majority of entities with your current mental state are Boltzmann brains, you can only expect the mental operations to carry out the conclusion "and therefore I am likely a Boltzmann brain" to validly operate in the entities in which you are not, in fact, a Boltzmann brain. That operation, therefore, would only harm the accuracy of your beliefs. 
1Jack R
Do you think that "most" of you are Boltzmann brains?

I was already going to respond simply that your friend believes these things because they want to believe them. They have to want to be rational.

As for me, I don't put rationality above all things, because I think it can be something you delude yourself into both idolising and thinking you're attaining; you can become something like a paperclip maximiser because you've convinced yourself it's logical. After having been something of a virulent atheist rationalist many years back, I realised that many of the people on my 'side' were in fact narrow-minded and... (read more)

I just used whatever I had on the shelf -- the only recommendation I would make is to go for strong, personally-familiar scents. Pine tree, cinnamon, lavender, jasmine etc.

My observation: cocaine turns normal people into arseholes and arseholes into even bigger arseholes.

My conclusion: I would never recommend it to anyone, and certainly never try it again.

Answer by rosyatrandom60

Sniffing strong essential oils seems to have helped me regain at least some of my smell and taste

1Maxwell Peterson
Thanks! Can you recommend a brand?
Answer by rosyatrandom50

Before I say anything else, a couple of quotes from Pratchett's Night Watch:


'You haven't killed your wife,' he said. 'Anywhere. There is nowhere, however huge the multiverse is, where Sam Vimes as he is now has murdered Lady Sybil. But the theory is quite clear. It says that if anything could happen without breaking any physical laws, it must happen. But it hasn't.[...]'

 

"He wanted to go home. He wanted it so much that he trembled at the thought. But if the price of that was selling good men to the night, if the price was filling those graves, if the

... (read more)

Can we develop a drug that makes people afraid of people who suggest making drugs to make people afraid of something?

2Viliam
Probably not, but generally supporting antivaxers might achieve this as a side effect. Actually, maybe we could make a drug that makes people afraid of drugs... for example, design a drug that is extremely useful, but also extremely painful... so the governments will force it on people, and most of them will decide "I am not taking a medicine ever again".
Answer by rosyatrandom10

I'd say that the normal temporal dimension we impose on reality is related to, but not the same, as the kind of time that underpins our consciousness.

As you say, memory is a process, not a static snapshot; the act of being sentient cannot be usefully be broken down into a sequence of mind-states based at instances on the timeline.

But perhaps there can be something more like a dynamic snapshot; atomic slices of consciousness that span over normal time, and represent a combined state/process from which 'this moment, this thought, this feeling' can be abstracted. 

There's lots of ways to twist the kaleidoscope and interpret the underling structure, and they're all (of course!) related to each other

5Callmesalticidae
Yeah. I'm kind of startled that CW can say "I wouldn't trade my life for less than a billion strangers' lives" and get more than one person to go "Wait, what?" in response to that comment. I understand that not everybody on here is an extreme altruist or anything like that, but CW is definitely coming across as the sort of free rider who's only alive because the rest of society is more pro-social than they are, which is a red flag in general.  Somebody who considers altruism to be weird is probably also somebody who will eat a high-trust society for breakfast whenever and wherever they can get away with it. 
Answer by rosyatrandom40

they value safety of strangers higher than their own safety, and want to take the vaccine for the sake of all the people at risk in the society.

 

Quite apart from the actually low personal risk from taking a vaccine, why does this strike you as odd? This is perfectly normal and good human behaviour, and if you don't share it there is probably something quite a bit wrong with you.

7Rafael Harth
I share the emotional reaction but I don't think attacking someone's character in response to a question is acceptable.

That's basically lucid daydreaming, then?

Trying to do that reminded me of something I used to do as a kid: I would watch static on TV, and find myself constructing imagery from it. Usually, it would be like traveling over landscapes, or a rotating/panning view over some entity, and the quality of the visuals would be like line drawings.

The reason I remember that is because my mental visualisations have a very similar quality. After maybe a 'flash' of a fairly detailed scene -- or at least the suggestion of one -- it rapidly devolves into sho... (read more)

I have never taken the idea of attempting a memory palace seriously, as although I have a terrible, terrible, memory, I also am terrible at visualising things.

To me, using a memory palace to solve memory issues is like making a speedboat out of coconut husks to escape a desert island. Or, perhaps, the xkcd regex '2 problems' comic.

1Raj Thimmiah
I don't have so much experience with memory palaces but I have used mnemonics a fair bit with SRS/IR. It's hard to explain and I have no idea how transferable it is but I don't think it's as hard to make mnemonics as you think. E.g.: if you're trying to memorize a word in Japanese which sounds like random syllables, if you lift the filters on your brain it isn't as bad as you'd think to figure out some connection by which to give those syllables meaning where they had none and to more easily memorize the word.
1DirectedEvolution
I'm also terrible at visualizing things. Except when I'm stoned. Or when I practice. What's really hard for me is trying to force myself to visualize a specific, stable image in a high level of detail. But if I just close my eyes and allow myself to visualize, exploring the mental experience in an open-ended way, I can do much better. Figuring out how to understand and control the experience better is what I'm working on now.

As, basically, an atheist, my response to the question 'Is there an all-powerful god?' is to ask: is that question actually meaningful? Is it akin to asking, 'is there an invisible pink unicorn?', or 'have you stopped beating your wife yet?'. To whit, a mu situation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mu_(negative) .

There are a lot of different types of question, and probabilities don't seem to mean the same thing across them. Sometimes those questions are based on fuzzy semantics that require interpretation, and may not neces... (read more)

1MichaelA
There are definitely a lot of different types of questions. There are also definitely multiple interpretation of probability. (This post presumes a Bayesian/subjectivist interpretation of probability, but a major contender is the frequentist view.) And it's definitely possible that there are some types of questions where it's more common, empirically speaking, to use one interpretation of probability than another, and possibly where that's more useful too. But I'm not aware of it being the case that probabilities just have to mean a different thing for different types of questions. If that's roughly what you meant, could you expand on that? (That might go to the heart of the claim I'm exploring the defensibility of in this post, as I guess I'm basically arguing that we could always assign at least slightly meaningful subjective credences to any given claim.) If instead you meant just that "a 0.001% chance of god being real" could mean either "a 0.001% chance of precisely the Judeo-Christian God being real, in very much the way that religion would expect" or "a 0.001% chance that any sort of supernatural force at all is real, even in a way no human has ever imagined at all", and that those are very different claims, then I agree.
1MichaelA
I don't understand the last half of that last sentence. But as for the rest, if I'm interpreting you correctly, here's how I'd respond: The probability of a god existing is not necessarily equal to the probability of "the set of concepts [being] in any way possible" (or we might instead say something like "it being metaphysically possible", "the question even being coherent", or similar). Instead, it's less than or equal to that probability. That is, a god can indeed only exist if the set of concepts are in any way possible, but it seems at least conceivable that the set of concepts could be conceivable and yet it still happen to be that there's no god. And in any case, for the purposes of this post, what I'm really wondering about is not what the odds of there being a god are, but rather whether and how we can arrive at meaningful probabilities for these sorts of claims. So I'd then also ask whether and how we can arrive at a meaningful probability for the claim "It is metaphysically possible/in any way possible that there's a god" (as a separate claim to whether there is a god). And I'd argue we can, through a process similar to the one described in this post. To sketch it briefly, we might think about previous concepts that were vaguely like this one, and whether, upon investigation, they "turned out to be metaphysically possible". We might find they never have ("yet"), but that that's not at all surprising, even if we assume that those claims are metaphysically possible, because we just wouldn't expect to have found evidence of that anyway. In which case, we might be forced to either go for way broader reference classes (like "weird-seeming claims", or "things that seemed to violate occam's razor unnecessarily"), or abandon reference class forecasting entirely, and lean 100% on inside-view type considerations (like our views on occam's razor and how well this claim fits with it) or our "gut feelings" (hopefully honed by calibration training). I think the prob
9MichaelA
Your comment made me realise that I skipped over the objection that the questions are too ambiguous to be worth engaging with. I've now added a paragraph to fix that: I think the reason why I initially skipped over that without noticing I'd done so was that: * this post was essentially prompted by the post from Chris Smith with the "Kyle the atheist" example * Smith writes in a footnote "For the benefit of the doubt, let’s assume everyone you ask is intelligent, has a decent understanding of probability, and more or less agrees about what constitutes an all-powerful god." * I wanted to explore whether the idea of it always being possible to assign probabilities could stand up to that particularly challenging case, without us having to lean on the (very reasonable) strategy of debating the meaning of the question. I.e., I wanted to see if, if we did agree of the definitions, we could still come to meaningful probabilities on that sort of question (and if so, how). But I realise now that it might seem weird to readers that I neglected to mention the ambiguity of the questions, so I'm glad your comment brought that to my attention.

I'm glad someone else thinks so, too. I'd also go so far as to say that our notions of rationality are also largely aesthetic.

Most of civilisation right now seems to be one giant gas-lighting immoral maze, where any effort to point out or mitigate the massive problems we have is sneered at or ignored.

Answer by rosyatrandom60
Yesterday, I managed to make an appointment for an ultrasound. However, I'm broke, and it turns out that the particular doctor is really expensive and has really bad reputation online

This is tangential, but part of the problem here is that your healthcare system is evil.

You should be able to see doctors for worries of this magnitude, and get the treatment/checks/referrals that you need, without this bullshit.

It's only a problem if you want it to be a problem.

There doesn't *need* to be anyone doing the interpreting, because all possible representations (and the interpreters/ees within) exist for free. I'm comfortable with that. There's no need to invoke special privilege to make reality more complicated, just because you want it to be. Fundamental reality *should* be simple, on some level, don't you think? The complexity is all internal.

3TAG
Quodlibet, being able to prove anything, is widely seen as a problem. Is that a fact? Boltzman brains would certainly follow from that bold conjecture. However, something similar would follow from simpler assumptions. You seen to be saying: 1. There are certain configurations of matter that could be conscious minds under a certain interpretation. 2. The required interpretations exists, since all interpretations exist in some immaterial way, for some unspecified reason. 3. Therefore accidental conscious minds, Boltzman brains, exist. Which has the simpler equivalent:- 1. Every possible conscious state exists in some immaterial way, for some unspecified reason. (Alternatively you might be saying that Boltzman interpreters exist, that there are some configurations of matter which are performing computations equivalent to interpretation. However, that would be based on the implicit assumption that being an interpreter is not itself a matter of interpretation. But it if there are interpretation-free facts about which computation maps onto which physical process, then why should there not be such facts about the the computations corresponding to consciousness -- again, the detour into interpretation is unnecessary. And the original applies: accidental computations are of any sort are going to be rare, because a computation is a coherent sequence).
Answer by rosyatrandom20

I used to be heavily into this area, and after succumbing somewhat to an 'it all adds up to normality' shoulder-shrugging, my feeling on this is that it's not just the 'environment' that is subject to radical changes, but the mind itself. It might be that there's a kind of mind-state attractor, by which minds tend to move along predictable paths and converge upon weirdness together. All of consciousness may, by different ways of looking at it, be considered as fragments of that endstate.


1Szymon Kucharski
Imagine a benevolent AI on a universal scale, that simulates the greates achievable number of copies of one specific "life". Namely if we imagine that it would simulate cintinuous states from emergence of consciousness to some form of nirvana. If we assume during brain death experience is getting simpler, to eventually reach the simplest observer moment (it would be identical to all dying minds) we can ask ourselves what than the next observer moment should be, and if we already have the simplest one next should be more complex, maybe if the complexity would have a tendency to grow, next moments would be one in an emerging mind of some creature (it would be a form of multiverse reincarnation, yet there is no way to keep memory in such a scenario). We could imagine that some benevolent AI would create greater (from the simplest state to computationally achievable, simple nirvanic state) measure of one simple, suffering-less life, to minimize the amount of suffering, what would be a form of mind attractor. Nevertheless after considering the idea I think it has a great objection, namely it would not be a way to save anyone, because there would be no "person" to be saved. (Excuse my englisch)
5eigen
Quite the contrary; my point being, since I do not care for that being on the episode I classified it as "meh", thus I do not care for that in LessWrong. If there's one thing which I agree strongly with the sequences is that Politics is the Mind-Killer.

I don't believe that that is a necessary assumption at all; the conscious state is still an abstractable representation, and if it maps to a dynamic process that itself can map to a temporally-connected collection of brain-states, then that is just more layers of abstraction.


The Boltzmann Brain could easily be not a brain-state representation, but a conscious-state representation.

1TAG
That then runs into Bible Code problems: anything maps to anything under a sufficent complex and arbitrary interpretation. But who's doing the interpretation?
In fact, why not discard physical reality entirely and rest in the thought of everything existing in abstract math space?

Well, yes, that's kind of the implication here. The minimum reality required to contain everything is, basically, nothing. Any more is entirely superfluous and reducible back to that bedrock.

Well, why not jump from a bridge for fun then? You will continue to exist no matter what you do.

You're talking about quantum immortality/suicide, and it's another corollary. Whether you find it ridiculous or not, I find the idea of an arbitrary 'physical' reality far more absurd.

0Teerth Aloke
Quantum immortality can be easily adapted to the Tegmark multiverse idea. Turchin wrote an article naming the idea 'Multiverse immortality'. His formulation is that : for every sequence with n observer movements, there shall be an observe moment n+1.
Furthermore, if you're convinced by the simulation argument, why not believe that you're a Boltzmann brain instead using the same line of argument?

Why not both?

Confession: my entire metaphysical worldview has been strongly shaped by reading Greg Egan's Permutation City, so I kind of subscribe to something like the Dust Theory/Max Tegmark's Mathematical Multiverse.

To return to your question: if your mind can be construed as existing within many different contexts, be they simulations, Boltzmann Brains, or boring old meatsacks in cosmose... (read more)

5TAG
The problem with Dust theory is that it assumes that conscious states supervene on brain states instantaneously. There is no evidence for that. We should not be fooled by the "specious present". We seem to be conscious moment-by-moment, but the "moments" in question are rather coarse-grained, corresponding to the specious present of 0.025-0.25 second or so. It's quite compatible with the phenomenology that it requires thousands or millions of neural events or processing steps to achieve a subjective "instant" of consciousness. Which would mean you can't salami-slice someone's stream-of-consciousness too much without it vanishing, and also mean that spontaneously occurring Boltzman-consciousnesses are incredibly unlikely (because you would need a string of states to arise that are "as if" causally connected). Additionally, the idea of computational supervening on instantaneous snapshots of physical activity, irrespective of causal connection and temporal sequence, doesn't make much sense as a theory of computation. What is the difference between a computational state and any old state, if not the fact that is part of a computation, that is, a sequence of states.
2[anonymous]
Just read up on the Dust Theory, and I think you can take it a notch further: no need for a vast universe, a rock is sufficient to represent any mind since there exists some mapping between the interactions of its constituent atoms to the brain activity of anyone. In fact, why not discard physical reality entirely and rest in the thought of everything existing in abstract math space? Well, why not jump from a bridge for fun then? You will continue to exist no matter what you do. Not saying that you won't, but it seems once one gets to this point anthropics stops having any implications for actions in the real world and is forever relegated to the realm of abstract philosophical thought experiments. My thought was that Boltzmann was proposed as a counter-argument to the idea of the Big Bang as the result of quantum fluctuations of an eternal universe. Since Boltzmann brains are much less massive than the whole observable universe, it is vastly more likely that the observer is just a random-fluctuation-generated Boltzmann brain hallucinating its observations than an observer (simulated or not) in an actual Big-Bang universe.

If that sort of order is helpful to developing consciousness somewhere down the line, then that is the link

Consistency seems to be the only real fallback

Why is it assumed that we are only in *one* of these options? Does it not make no difference, to the point that you can say we exist in all of them to the extent that they are possible? That a BB may not coherently exist further down its own timestream doesn't matter at all, because temporal contiguity is not necessary.

1Donald Hobson
Alright, if you want to formalize that in the context of a big universe, which one has the super majority of measure or magic reality fluid. Which should we act as if we are.

My quick take on it, via the Weak Anthropic Principle: consciousness is likely to be linked to QM, because we find ourselves in a QM-based world. If it's not *required*, odds are that QM-based realities are amenable
to containing conscious entities.

3Gurkenglas
QM-based realities may just be amenable to containing fusion or planets or amino acids.

> according to some personality tests I am an INTJ I don't know whether this is considered science but from what I've read about the personality type it's literally a copy paste of who am I so I believe in them .

I know this is tangential to your question, but that is _not_ a scientific/rational approach you are taking w.r.t. Myers-Briggs.

2ESRogs
What's wrong with it? "Descriptions of the INTJ type seem to match me" seems like a meaningful statement. Perhaps you wanted to know whether they read all the other type descriptions too? I thought Scott had a pretty good post on this: http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/27/on-types-of-typologies/

Simple cheat solution:

"the Council of Genies has created new, updated rules which ban any unwanted side-effects for the person who makes the wish or any of their loved one's. "

I would argue that I love everyone, by default, especially people in this kind of cruel situation. Therefore this would count as an unwanted side-effect.

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