cross-posted to EA Forum
TLDR
We’re giving out $4,000 to the best forecast writeups submitted via this form on these Metaculus questions by March 11 to encourage more people to forecast on impactful questions and write up their reasoning.
Motivation
We believe that forecasting on impactful questions is a great candidate for an activity more EA-interested people should partake in, given that it:
- Provides direct value when done on decision-relevant questions.
- Improves and demonstrates good judgment and research skills.
- Can be fun: provides a concrete and gamified framing for activities that look similar to research.
- Leads to generally learning more about the world.
- Helps match up bright, like-minded collaborators.
This is informed by personal experience: we have learned a lot and found... (read 982 more words →)
I've been doing this for the past few weeks and just wanted to note that there is potentially a selection effect going on here. Quite simply: the drunker I am, the less likely I am to remember to take the capsule. I take it when I am slightly drunk, but not so drunk that I forget to take the capsule. I'm currently writing this comment slightly drunk after having taken one capsule, but not so drunk that I've fallen asleep in bed straight away like I do when I am sure to have a hangover!