All of SamuelKnoche's Comments + Replies

WebGPT probably already can, because it can use a text based browser and look up the answer. https://openai.com/blog/webgpt/

Worth noting though that you should expect those who are most successful at getting more of what they want to have a utility function with a big overlap with the utility function of others, and to be able to credibly commit to not destroy value for other people. We live in a society. 

4Dagon
Or at least to be pretty good at appearing that way, while privately defecting to increase their own control of resources.

There's a lot of value to be had in understanding the wisdom of existing informal evaluation systems and scaling them into formal ones.

One consideration to keep in mind though is that there might also be a social function in the informality and vagueness of many evaluation systems.

From Social Capital in Silicon Valley:

The illegibility and opacity of intra-group status was doing something really important – it created space where everyone could belong. The light of day poisons the magic. It’s a delightful paradox: a group that exists to confer social s

... (read more)
5ozziegooen
Good points, thanks. I think ranking systems can be very powerful (as would make sense for something I'm claiming to be important), and can be quite bad if done poorly (arguably, current uses of citations are quite poor). Being careful matters a lot.

I maybe wasn't clear about what I meant by 'the game.' I didn't mean how to be a good public intellectual but rather the broader 'game' of coming up with new ideas and figuring things out.

One important metric I use to judge public intellectuals is whether they share my views, and start from similar assumptions. It's obviously important to not filter too strongly on this or you're never going to hear anything that challenges your beliefs, but it still makes sense to discount the views of people who hold beliefs you think are false. But you obviously can't b... (read more)

I like the thought. Though unlike sports, intellectual work seems fundamentally open-ended, and therefore doesn't seem to allow for easy metrics. Intellectuals aren't the ones playing the game, they're the ones figuring out the rules of the game. I think that's why it often is better to focus on the ideas rather than the people.

A similar question also applies within academia. There, citation counts already serve as a metric to measure intellectual accomplishment. The goodharting of that metric probably can tell you a lot about the challenges such a system ... (read more)

3vlad.proex
Do you think it's wise to entrust the collective with judging the worth of intellectuals? I can think of a lot of reasons this could go wrong: cognitive biases, emotional reasoning, ignorance, Dunning–Kruger effect, politically-driven decisions... Just look at what's happening now with cancel culture. In general this connects to the problem of expertise. If even intellectuals have trouble understanding who among them is worthy of trust and respect, how could individuals alien to their field fare better? If the rating was done between intellectuals, don't you think the whole thing would be prone to conflicts of interest, with individuals tending to support their tribe / those who can benefit them / those whose power tempts them or scares them? I am not against the idea of rating intellectual work. I'm just mistrustful of having the rating done by other humans, with biases and agendas of their own. I would be more inclined to support objective forms of rating. Forecasts are a good example.
5ozziegooen
Thanks! Some very quick thoughts: This doesn't seem true to me. There's relatively little systematic literature from intellectuals trying to understand what structural things make for quality intellectual standards. The majority of it seems to be arguing and discussing specific orthogonal opinions. It's true that they "are the ones" to figure out the rules of the game, but this is a small minority of them, and for these people, it's often a side endeavor. Definitely. I think the process of "evaluation standardization and openness" is a repeated one across industries and sectors. There's a lot of value to be had in understanding the wisdom of existing informal evaluation systems and scaling them into formal ones. I imagine the space of options here is quite vast. This option seems like a neat choice. Perhaps several distinct efforts could be tried. I have some rough ideas, want to brainstorm on this a bit more before writing more.
7newcom
I find such a social app idea really interesting. A map that tracks which public intellectuals value each others contributions (possibly even divided on subject) would be a valuable tool. I guess some initial work on this could even be done without participation of said persons, as most already identify their primary influences in their work.

True. I still think that market solutions would arise. Income Sharing Agreements (ISA) in particular seem promising for this kind of situation.

I agree that it is less bad in Europe and the UK. To quote from a response I gave to a related question:

"I see the education in countries where it is free/mostly free as better than the US, but many of the same criticisms still apply. What is taught, and how it is taught is the same as in the Anglo-saxon World. See here.

Also, the higher education system in those other countries is still quite wasteful (people learning things they don't need or want to learn, zero-sum competition for credentials...). It's just that the cost is borne by the taxpayer and not ... (read more)

7Viliam
I agree about the wastefulness of the European model (and that it is better than getting people in debt). Ultimately, the effect of the system is that it separates the educated class from the non-educated class, which correlates a lot with social class. Because even if the school is for free, you still pay the opportunity cost of the income you could have had instead. You still need someone to feed you. If the university is not in your town, it costs you money for travel and accommodation. And the schools are of various quality, and some of them accept almost literally anyone, so you could probably be literally retarded and still get a university diploma, as long as you choose the right university. So at the end, the difference between people who have the diploma and the people who don't, is mostly the difference between people whose parents had enough money to feed them until they were 24, and those who didn't. Except we pretend that it is actually about being smart and diligent, so the poor people who had to start making money as soon as they turned 18 deserve to remain at the bottom, because they are stupid and lazy. I would prefer to see a system where all education is provided for free to anyone, in the form of high-quality online videos and interactive tests. With separation of teaching and testing: the school would be optional, you could either attend it or learn from home (and then, I wouldn't mind if the school was paid), but the final exams and diplomas would be given by an independent institution which would verify your knowledge regardless of whether you attended school or were homeschooled. Yeah, one can dream...

By "if public education is all about helping employers in their hiring process" I am only referring to the ~80% signaling. I mean to say that the government shouldn't help companies select candidates, and definitely not in such a wasteful manner.

I agree that increasing human capital is a good goal (alongside creating the public good of an educated citizenry). It's just that the government does this very very inefficiently. I discuss this in more details in The Case for Education

If public education is all about helping employers in their hiring process, then it's a really wasteful form of corporate welfare. So, I don't really consider this as a good argument in favor of funding public higher education.

I think that fixing the education system will require unbundling the learning part and the signaling part. So, learning communities for the learning part, and comprehensive standardized exams for the signaling. Not sure how elaborate the exams need to be to match the signal quality of a college degree. I guess for people mostly looki... (read more)

2[anonymous]
Got it. I think unbundling them seems like a good thing to strive for. I guess the parts that I might still be worried about are: * I see below that you claim that more accountability is probably net-good for most students, in the sense that would help improve learning? I'm not sure that I fully agree with that. My experience in primary to upper education has been that there is a great many students who don't seem that motivated to learn due to differing priorities, home situations, or preferences. I think improving education will need to find some way of addressing this beyond just accountability. * Do you envision students enrolling in this Improved Education program for free? Public schools right now have a distinct advantage because they receive a lot of funding from taxpayers. * I think the issue of, "Why can't we just immediately get switch everyone to a decoupled situation where credentialing and education are separate?" is due to us being stuck in an inadequate equilibrium. Do you have plans to specifically tackle these inertia-related issues that can make mass-adoption difficult? (e.g until cheap credentialing services become widespread, why would signaling-conscious students decide to enroll in Improved Education instead of Normal Education?)
0TAG
Any public education? Even Caplans 20% of useful education? If public education is actually working at helping employers , then it is helping the economy and is therefore a pretty justifiable form of welfare. So I am not clear whether you are saying public education is a bad idea or badly implemented.

I do agree that it has a purpose. I discuss two of those: increasing human capital and the public good of an educated citizenry. Do you have any others in mind?

My goal isn't necessarily to directly improve education for the median knowledge-worker. I want to start by improving it for smarter and more self-directed students and then see for how well it can generalize. Focusing on smart people first is kinda the point, since if the system you build attracts smart people, it’s going to be a stronger signal of intelligence.

But I think you underestimate how man... (read more)

The EA Hotel specifically, I'm not quite sure. As I said, most people would need more accountability. But I'm fairly confident that the kind of environment I envision, with someone responsible to keep people on track and hold people accountable, would be better for most students than the Zoom university they are getting now.

2Viliam
Yeah, most people would also need some kind of educational coach. Still cheaper to employ one coach than dozen professors.

Awesome! Thank you for putting all this effort into creating this resource.

I created a list of all of Thiel's online writings: List of Peter Thiel's Online Writings

These were not included in the document:
Spending the Future
Against Edenism
Back to the Future
You Should Run Your Startup Like a Cult. Here's How
The Optimistic Thought Experiment
The New Atomic Age We Need
Peter Thiel: The Online Privacy Debate Won’t End With Gawker
Good for Google, Bad for America

Some of these might not be directly relevant to "progress and stagnation," but most of them do seem like they are worth including.

7Richard_Ngo
Thanks, this is very useful! Agreed that they're worth including, we just decided to ship earlier at the cost of being more comprehensive. I'll add these over the next few weeks probably.

The problem is that access to information/educational resources is almost never the problem. In poor countries, the best interventions to improve educational attainments are often health interventions. In rich countries, education isn't neglected, and it seems extremely hard to make real progress. Bill Gates recently spent almost a $1B to improve educational attainment in the US, with nothing to show for it.

Also, so far at least, ed-tech isn't looking too promising. Education can probably be improved with free online resources and maybe AI, but ... (read more)