All of seanwelsh77's Comments + Replies

Seriously, how much effort goes into voting? Perhaps an hour at the most?

Compared to how much tax gets taken off you every day it seems that having some minor influence in guiding the assembly that sets the budget for the spending of said tax is worth your while. If only to sack a representative assembly that displeases you.

What virtues are displayed by not voting? Sloth? Indifference?

If no one voted how would democratic government work?

Does voting increase utility? In a single case not by much but in the aggregate the people can remove a government tha... (read more)

1Nornagest
If you only spend an hour on gathering information for voting, you probably shouldn't be voting: given that you probably don't have magical powers of common sense pointing inerrantly to the optimal choices, voting without research or some kind of insider information is pretty much equivalent to expressing a vote in favor of whatever random environmental biases you've been exposed to. That's a set that normally includes a lot of PAC influence, if you care about such things. On the other hand, I'll admit that in some situations proposals do make their way to the ballot without being cleared of flaws or biases that're obvious to the average LW reader but not to the average voter. When I do choose to vote, my usual way of dealing with California ballot propositions (a form of referendum) that I've never heard of is to read the voter information pamphlet while I'm waiting in line and then vote against whatever option sounds frothy, knee-jerky, or economically insane. There are surprisingly few that don't have such an option.
-1Qiaochu_Yuan
A lot of effort can go into informed voting. I experimented with voting for the first time last fall and I spent several hours looking up relevant information, and I could've spent a lot more if I wanted to get a strong grasp of the issues, which I didn't feel like I had. Depends on how much influence. Why do I care about displaying virtue? You're confusing the average value of voting with the marginal value of voting. Would you apply the same argument to homosexuality ("if no one was heterosexual how would making babies work")?

I don't buy the assumption that seems to be implied that many arguments have to be weak and a single argument has to be strong.

Why not have many strong reasons instead of one weak reason?

Certainly for complex questions I find multi-threaded answers more convincing than single-threaded ones.

Fox over hedgehog for me.

In terms of picking a major, do something you enjoy that you can conceivably use to get a job. You can actually get a job with a philosophy degree. I did... after I quit accounting because it was too darn boring...

-1JonahS
There are contexts in which one doesn't have access to many strong arguments. I'll clarify that I wasn't arguing that one should major in a quantitative subject — my discussion was restricted to earnings, not to the holistic impact of majoring in a given subject.

Restrict propositions to observable references? (Or have a rule about falsifiablility?)

The problem with the observable reference rule is that sense can be divorced from reference and things can be true (in principle) even if un-sensed or un-sensable. However, when we learn language we start by associating sense with concrete reference. Abstractions are trickier.

It is the case that my sensorimotor apparatus will determine my beliefs and my ability to cross-reference my beliefs with other similar agents with similar sensorimotor apparatus will forge consens... (read more)

A difficulty of utilitarianism is the question of felicific exchange rates. If you cast morality as a utility function then you are obliged to come up with answers to bizarre hypothetical questions like how many ice-creams is the life of your first born worth because you have defined the right in terms of maximized utility.

If you cast morality as a dispute avoidance mechanism between social agents possessed with power and desire then you are less likely to end up in this kind of dead-end but the price of this casting is the recognition that different agents will have different values and that objectivity of morals is not always possible.

0drnickbone
Agreed, but the OP was talking about "effective altruism" , rather than about "effective morality" in general. It's difficult to talk about altruism at all except within some sort of consequentialist framework. And while there is no simple way of comparing goods, consideration of "effective" altruism (how much good can I do for a relatively small amount of money?) does force us to look at and make very difficult tradeoffs between different goods. Incidentally, I generally subscribe to rule consequentialism though without any simple utility function, and for much the reasons you discuss. Avoiding vicious disputes between social agents with different values is, as I understand it, one of the "good things" that a system of moral rules needs to achieve.

Quite so. The OP I think is more concerned about factory farming than the more traditional grazing approaches to cattle. But I think if you push a morality too far up against the hill of human desire it will collapse. Many activists overestimate the "care factor". My ability to care is pretty limited. I can't and won't care about 7 billion other humans on this planet except in the thinnest and most meaningless senses (i.e. stated preferences in surveys which are near worthless) let along the x billion animals. In terms of revealed preferences (where I put my dollars and power) I favour the near and the dear over the stranger and the genetically unrelated.

Fascinating paper. Will there be a release of the code used? I would like to be able to play these games and tinker with the code myself.

Hacking is believing...

I think you should put out a game called Modal Combat!

I have no argument with your desire to establish the most cost-effective way to get the most bang for your bucks. I simply do not accept the premise that it is wrong to eat meat.

Consider the life of a steer in Cape York. It is born the property of a grazier. It is given health care of a sort (dips, jabs, anti-tick treatment). It lives a free life grazing for a few hundred days in fenced enclosures protected by the grazier's guns from predators. Towards the end, it is mustered by jackaroos and jillaroos, shipped in a truck to the lush volcanic grasslands o... (read more)

4Said Achmiz
Without engaging with any of your other points, I'd just like to point out that the OP considers the good outcome to be one where farm animals don't exist at all, rather than one where they're free in the wild. (Because if animals don't exist then they can't suffer.)

More research...

Gerd Gigerenzer's views on heuristics in moral decision making are very interesting though.

The will of the few people funding the super PACs which are telling the sheeple what to bleat, in the few states whose result matter.

The sheeple? That is a contemptuous remark. You should withdraw it.

There are no super PACs in my country. We have sensible electoral laws Down Under... Sensible gun laws too. Oh and Medicare for all without any squibbing, mandatory 401ks for all workers. And freedom... Lot of good stuff...

What is your constructive alternative to voting and political activism?

What are you offering? Some cafe society "I am vastly super... (read more)

3Kawoomba
Well, there are countries whose voting system is such that I would vote, and countries in which I wouldn't. "Democracy" is an umbrella term covering a host of political systems, each one has to be evaluated on its own merits. Circumstances are different even inside one country; individual voters in e.g. Ohio or Florida have actual influence. So the victors write the history books, eh? We should just do whatever the people who successfully killed the other people say, I suppose. I'm saying that the most effective way to influence your country's policy is through money, not through your individual vote. If you want to vote so you feel better about yourself, that's your business. Watch some political ads sometimes, at least of the US variety. "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" and such. Ask yourself why billions are spent on such tactics, check the role of billionaires such as the Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, the list goes on. The percentage of voters who believe Obama is secretly a Kenyan muslim. Nope, I don't think I should withdraw the remark. It's a numbers game, even the "few" percent of the vote the NRA controls is enough to vote in or out (radical voters dominate the primary system) whomever they want in large parts of the US.

Your alternative would be to think an aristocratic or meritocratic principle is true. (It's either equal or unequal, right?)

I think we can assume aristocracy is a dead duck along with the Divine Right of Kings and other theological relics.

Meritocracy in some form I believe has been advocated by some utilitarians. People with Oxford degrees get 10 votes. Cambridge 9. Down to the LSE with 2 votes and the common ignorant unlettered herd 1 vote...

This is kind of an epistemocratic voting regime which some think might lead to better outcomes. Alas, no one has b... (read more)

1Jayson_Virissimo
I wouldn't use those terms, since they bring in all kinds of unnecessary connotations. I would say the opposite of the egalitarian principle is the non-egalitarian principle. I was thinking less along the lines of nobles/commoners and more along the lines of my children/other people's children. I find the idea (that I think the egalitarian principle entails) that I have as much obligation to perfect strangers as to my wife to be extremely counter-intuitive. I don't consider the Divine Right of Crowds ('human rights', or whatever the cool kids are calling it these days) to be any less silly than those 'theological relics'. This part isn't really relevant to what I'm talking about, since I'm not discussing equal weight in decision-making, but equal weight in a social welfare function. My infant son's interests are one of my greatest concerns, but he currently has about zero say in family decision-making. Equal treatment before the law does not necessarily mean that individuals interests are weighted equally. When was the last time you heard of jurors on a rape trial trying to figure out exactly how much utility the rapist got so they could properly combine that with the disutility of the victim?
0MugaSofer
Counterpoint: it offers stability, which is useful regardless of theology. See the Fnargle World thought experiment and various other neo-reactionary stuff on Why Democracy Is Bad. Let me put it this way: would you rather we're ruled by someone who's skilled at persuading us to elect him, and who focuses resources on looking good in four years; or someone who's been trained since birth to govern well, and knows they or their descendants will be held accountable for any future side-effects of their policies? These arguments may be deeply flawed, but hereditary aristocracy doesn't stand of fall with the Divine Right Of Kings.
6orthonormal
I agree strongly with the point that voting can be worthwhile, but I think you're being downvoted because you're making poor arguments for that point. (Specifically, you can make arguments for really bad conclusions using the same format, "people died for the belief that X is true, therefore X is true".)
-7Kawoomba

Probably the most important question that can be asked in politics is "how can we produce a perfect society in every which way according to the following list of criteria...."

The kind of questions pols actually think about. (I used to work for one...)

  1. How do I get re-elected?
  2. Which event/announcement relating to the party platform (the list of 'improve society' criteria that the party has approved) will get airtime and make me look good and my opponent in the next race look bad?
  3. Within the current budget what money can I win for my electorat
... (read more)
2Jiro
My point was that "the most important question" doesn't mean "the question which, if answered and implemented, would lead to the biggest benefit". The feasibility of answering and implementing is, for most of us, part of what makes a question an important question. The original post seems to have been saying that "privileged" questions are not really important. I think that, when analyzed with a definition that is closer to what we mean by "important", they are.

Why has the media privileged these questions? I'd guess that the media is incentivized to ask whatever questions will get them the most views. That's a very different goal from asking the most important questions, and is one reason to stop paying attention to the media.

Journalists are not paid to print the truth. They are paid to sell newspapers. (This correlates to your "most views" idea.)

However, people buy newspapers (and consume other forms of media). People choose to read celebrity gossip and trivia rather than constructive solutions fo... (read more)

2Qiaochu_Yuan
Who's blaming the media for anything? All I said is that this is one reason to stop paying attention to the media.

My recollection of Leibniz's view is dim but I recollect that the essence of it is that the perfection of the world is a consequence of the perfection of God. It would reflect poorly on the Omnipotence, Omniscience, Benevolence & Supreme Awesomeness &c of the Deity and Designer if he bashed out some second-rate less than perfectly good (or indeed merely averagely awesome) world. For the benefit of the general readership, the book to read on this is Candide by Voltaire. You will never see rationalists in quite the same way again... :-)

Link to Candide

9Jayson_Virissimo
I think this comment reinforces Will_Newsome's point. The textbook Rhetoric, Logic, and Argumentation: A Guide for Student Writers by Magedah Shabo (quite correctly) uses Voltaire's Candide as the very first example of a straw man fallacy on page 95.

I don't either but I find "the best of all possible worlds" concept very interesting along with the related notion God could not possibly create a world that was anything other than "the most awesome of all possible worlds" - given the predicates traditionally ascribed to God.

You can take this is a reductio ad absurdam of the notion of God as many do. But presumably the task of friendly AI (at its most benevolent) must be to perform (or figure out) what actions should be taken to promote awesomeness?

More extravagantly, the task of friendly AI is to 'build God.'

(And get Her right this time :-)

According to Leibniz, this is the most awesome of all possible worlds.

8Will_Newsome
(This is not a good characterization of Leibniz's actual conceptual system, for what it's worth;---the arguments that this is the "best of all possible worlds" are quite technical and come from the sort of intuitions that would later inspire algorithmic information theory; certainly neither blind optimism nor psychologically contingent enthusiasm about life's bounties were motivating the arguments. Crucially, "best" or similar, unlike "awesome", is potentially philosophically simple (in the sense of algorithmic information theory), which is necessary for Leibniz's arguments to go through. (This comment is directed more at the general readership than the author of the comment I'm replying to.))
9Eliezer Yudkowsky
Falsified by diarrhea. Next!
4mare-of-night
I don't agree with Leibniz, but I do find his "best of all possible worlds" concept really useful for talking about what utilitarians try to do.

In my experience homo sapiens does not come 'out of a box.' Are you a MacBook Pro? :-)

But seriously, I have seen some interestingly flawed 'decision-making systems' in Psych Wards. And I think Reason (whatever it is taught to be) matters. Reason and Emotion are a tag team in decision making in ethical domains. They do their best work together. I don't think Reason alone (however you construe it) is up to the job of friendly AI.

Of course, bringing Emotion in to ethics has issues. Who is to say whose Emotions are 'valid' or 'correct?'

7John_D
"Reason and Emotion are a tag team in decision making in ethical domains. They do their best work together." That statement is too strong. I can think of several instances where certain emotions, especially negative ones, can impair decision making. It is reasonable to assume that impaired decision making can extend into making ethical decisions. The first page of the paper linked below provides a good summary of when emotions, and what emotions, can be helpful or harmful in making decisions. I do acknowledge that some emotions can be helpful in certain situations. Perhaps you should modify your statement. http://www.cognitive-neuroscience.ro/pdf/11.%20Anxiety%20impairs%20decision-making.pdf
-1MugaSofer
Certainly, our desires are emotional in nature; "reason" is merely how we achieve them. But wouldn't it be better to have a Superintelligent AI deduce our emotions itself, rather than programming it in ourselves? Introspection is hard. Have you read the Metaethics Sequence? It's pretty good at this sort of question.
3Juno_Watt
A thousand sci-fi authors would agree with you that AIs are not going to have emotion. One prominent AI researcher will disagree

Not sure why you link rationality with "Academy" (academia?).

Pirsig calls the Academy "the Church of Reason" in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. I think there is much evidence to suggest academia has been strongly biased to 'Reason' for most of its recorded history. It is only very recently that research is highlighting the role of Emotion in decision making.

3Juno_Watt
Let's not get started on the medical profession's bias towards health..maybe it's just their job to teach reason..have you ever met someone who couldn't do emotional/system-I decision-making right out of the box?

I don't think I'm parsing this correctly. Could you expand on it a bit?

You need the Sith parser :-)

I guess the point I am making is that Reason alone is not enough and a lot of what we call Reason is technology derived from the effect on brains on being able to write. There is some interesting research on how cognition and reasoning differs between literate and preliterate people. I think Emotion plays a critical role in decision making. I am not going out to bat for Faith except in the Taras Bulba sense: "I put my faith in my sword and my sword in the Pole!" (The Polish were the enemy of the Cossack Taras Bulba in the ancient Yul Brynner flick I am quoting from.)

0MugaSofer
Whee, references! We create technologies to help us do stuff better - Taras' sword being only one example. Why not a technology to help us think better? Heck, there are plenty of "mental technologies" besides Rationality - a great example would be the Memory Palace visualization technique (it's featured in an episode of Sherlock, for bonus reference points, but it's not portrayed very well; Google it instead.)

Hi Less Wrong,

My name is Sean Welsh. I am a graduate student at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch NZ. I was most recently a Solution Architect working on software development projects for telcos. I have decided to take a year off to do a Master's. My topic is Ethical Algorithms: Modelling Moral Decisions in Software. I am particularly interested in questions of machine ethics & robot ethics (obviously).

I would say at the outset that I think 'the hard problem of ethics' remains unsolved. Until it is solved, the prospects for any benign or fr... (read more)

-2MugaSofer
I don't think I'm parsing this correctly. Could you expand on it a bit? Well, you'll find plenty of agreement here, for certain definitions of "unsolved".
2Shmi
Welcome! Not sure why you link rationality with "Academy" (academia?). Consider scanning through the sequences to learn with is generally considered rationality on this forum and how Eliezer Yudkowsky treats metaethics. Whether you agree with him or not, you are likely to find a lot of insights into machine (and human) ethics, maybe even helpful in your research.