Agreed. In the human/AGI case, conditions 1 and 3 seem likely to hold (while I agree human self-report would be a bad way to learn what humans can do reliably, looking at the human track record is a solid way to identify useful classes of tasks at which humans are reasonably competent). I agree 4 more difficult to predict (and has been the subject of much of the discussion thus far), and this particular failure mode of genetically engineering more compliant / willing-to-accept-worse-trade ants/humans updates me towards thinking humans will have few useful ...
We can imagine two versions of the mysterious-poverty-restoring-force hypothesis:
Weak: Despite changes in overall productivity, poverty persists.
Strong: Despite changes in overall productivity, the proportion of the population in poverty remains constant.
I think weak is almost certainly true, you're right that UBI won't eliminate poverty. But I think strong is likely false - people desperately struggling: people living relatively comfortably, with slack for hobbies and "fun spending" of time and money doesn't seem constant over history.
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