Not really? On timelines, I haven't looked through the results so maybe they're more surprising then they look on a brief skim, but "you can do multitask learning with a single network" feels totally unsurprising given past results. Like, if nothing else the network could allocate 10% of itself to each domain; 100M parameters are more than enough to show good performance in these domains (robotics often uses far fewer parameters iirc). But also I would have expected some transfer between tasks so that you'd do better than that would naively predict. I've s... (read more)
I'd just say the numbers from the survey below? Maybe slightly updated towards doom; I think probably some of the respondents have been influenced by recent wave of doomism.
If you had a more rigorously defined population, such that I could predict the differences between that population and the population surveyed below, I could predict more differences.
Sorry to hijack your comment, but I'm curious as to whether this shortens your timelines at all or makes you any more pessimistic about alignment.
Not really? On timelines, I haven't looked through the results so maybe they're more surprising then they look on a brief skim, but "you can do multitask learning with a single network" feels totally unsurprising given past results. Like, if nothing else the network could allocate 10% of itself to each domain; 100M parameters are more than enough to show good performance in these domains (robotics often uses far fewer parameters iirc). But also I would have expected some transfer between tasks so that you'd do better than that would naively predict. I've s... (read more)