All of spqr0a1's Comments + Replies

spqr0a1130

The particular vaccine (MVA-BN / Imvanex / Jynneos) that has been shown to be effective for monkeypox is administered via injection[1] not scarification. Stored frozen, it has an approved shelf life of 36 months[1]. In 2014 the US had 24 million doses stockpiled[2]; As far as I can tell, the stockpile is around 1 million doses now[3]. 

There are also 100 million doses[3] of the scarifying (ACAM2000) vaccine that hasn't been studied for monkeypox; Stored dry, that has an approved shelf life of 18 months[4]. It is not currently clear to me how much of th... (read more)

The good news is that nurses rarely actually spend as long as that paper suggests for alcohol surface prep. The bad news is that it's short enough to further call the effectiveness into question. At least they aren't using iodine for it any more; I never saw a nurse wait the full 2 minutes that calls for. I don't have the references at hand, but I wonder if chlorhexidine has a fast enough disinfection time to be practical; I know it is at most the same time-frame as alcohol, maybe shorter.

I used to use the same mask that Zvi's friend recommends, but switched to 3M's model 7502 respirator with model 7093 P100 filters. The mask I use is made of silicone and because of that is more comfortable for extended wear and easier to securely fit. The filter cartridges are less visually obtrusive than the pink 'pancake' filters and last longer before clogging (more of a concern for construction work than general covid wear).

I don't have first-hand experience with the GVS Elipse series, but the most compact model looks easier to fit a surgical mask over, should you go somewhere that enforces that bit of theater.

I expect the 1.17x transmission advantage among unvaccinated to mainly be immune evasion as well. One might be able to get a sense of this from existing data by accounting for the proportion previously infected and the degree of protection that conferred toward delta.

I am surprised this writeup didn't mention physical aspects of geophagy. I always thought that tooth-wear was the main hazard of eating dirt. There's plenty of research on geophagy and tooth-wear, both direct like kaolin, and indirect like stone-milled grains which has a big impact in dental specimens in archeology.

4agc
Kids of dirt eating age will change their teeth in a few years anyway, so I think tooth-wear is less concerning.

40% of whitetail deer had a SARS-CoV2 infection by March 2021. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.454326v1 I'd expect it to be predominantly Delta in them too by now. Given the population and reproduction rate of deer, I'd expect the virus to keep circulating in deer indefinitely.

2JenniferRM
I love this response partly because it addresses something mechanistic about the world. Once the mechanism is raised it suggests things like: maybe the deer need vaccines? Or to be culled?  My central hunch for deer is that they are more exposed to humans (because of our garbage) than vice versa. But like: listing out the aspects of the problem (deer, air travel, human trafficking, etc) and then listing sufficient sets of interventions to address all the aspects adequately... Is it really THAT expensive, compared with not eradicating?

Interested to see a historical analysis of luminous efficacy. Spans 3 orders of magnitude, similar timeframe to other topics covered, and also like other topics here includes many sequential innovations as opposed to mere iteration on a particular technology.

2Lumifer
Its survival is in doubt. In particular, "The site is currently and has been for several months operating at a significant loss. If nothing were to change, MeFi would defaulting on bills and hitting bankruptcy by mid-summer."
spqr0a120

Consider helminthic therapy. Hookworm infection down-regulates bowel inflammation and my parasitology professor thinks it is a very promising approach. NPR has a reasonably good popularization. Depending on the species chosen, one treatment can control symptoms for up to 5 years at a time. It is commercially available despite lack of regulatory approval. Not quite a magic bullet, but an active area of research with good preliminary results.

spqr0a100

On the left is Willard Quine.

0lukeprog
Nope!
0gjm
How sure are you? It seems plausible that Quine looked like that at one time, but none of the pictures of him I can find look all that similar. And while Quine did important work on many many things, I wouldn't put causality high on the list of things he's known for working on. Still, I've so far failed to find anyone notable in the field who looks much more like that image...
spqr0a140

Activity in many niches could credibly signal high status in some circles by making available many insights with short inferential distance to the general public (outside any of your niches). Allowing one to seem very experienced/intelligent.

Moreover, the benefits to being medium status in several hobby groups and the associated large number of otherwise unrelated social connections may be greater than readily apparent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_network#Structural_holes

4Vaniver
Agreed. It seems like there are several general-purpose hobby groups that seem to be particularly adept at serving this role, of which churches are the most obvious example.
spqr0a100

If the commute is mostly flat, consider Freeline skates. They take up much less space than any of the mentioned wheels; the technique is different from skateboarding but the learning curve isn't any worse.

0Luke_A_Somers
I have discovered that I am so terrible at skateboarding and rollerblading that self-preservation requires me to stop trying.
spqr0a120

Adipocyte count is essential to maintaining weight.

It is unclear to what extent weight is genetic rather than environmentally set at a later stage in development.

Given that in adulthood adipocyte number stays constant, and weight changes are predominantly accompanied by changes in adipocyte volume, one may conclude that at some critical point in development the final fat cell number is attained and after this point no fat cell turnover occurs. Analysis of adipocyte turnover using carbon-14 dating (for a detailed methodological description, see Ref. [5]),

... (read more)
0A1987dM
People such as the author of The Hacker's Diet, who lost a sizeable fraction of his weight as an adult and then stayed there for decades, seem to me to suggest that it can.
spqr0a100

What was bad about the Saxon program for you? I liked its spaced repetition; though being taught in a private school by a retired engineer probably masked any shortcomings in the textbooks. Should I stop recommending Saxon math?

0lavalamp
Well, I don't actually know. I do know that math/physics in college was a lot easier, not sure if due to teacher or that it was review for me or what. I'm the sort of person that just wants to understand the concepts and really hates rote repetition, so I can't say I enjoyed it. (I write computer programs to do the rote repetition!) Mostly I was saying that because I had a public school math teacher express pity upon learning that I learned with Saxon. Maybe it's just fine for some people?
spqr0a110

On keyboard utility: I've been using the a mechanical keyboard for 3 years and enjoy typing on it more than a membrane switch (generic). Prior to this one regular keyboard lasted me about 8 months; at maybe $15 for a cheap keyboard compared to $70 for this, $15/8 months - $80/x months gives a breakeven time of 3.5 years. (IBM/unicomp Model M keyboards can last for decades)

If you have a problem with keyboard durability then mechanical keyboards have slight positive utility, otherwise I would only recommend them if you noticeably preferred typing on one.

Edit... (read more)

0wgd
I'm going to disagree with the weakness of your recommendation. I may be falling prey to the typical mind fallacy here, but I feel that everyone who types for a significant fraction of their day (programming, writing, etc) should at least strongly consider getting a mechanical keyboard. In addition to feeling nicer to type on, there's some weak evidence that buckling-spring keyboards can lower your risk of various hand injuries down the line, and even a slightly lessened risk of RSI is probably worth the $60 or so more that a mechanical keyboard costs, even ignoring the greater durability.
spqr0a190

To prize every thing according to its real use ought to be the aim of a rational being. There are few things which can much conduce to happiness, and, therefore, few things to be ardently desired. He that looks upon the business and bustle of the world, with the philosophy with which Socrates surveyed the fair at Athens, will turn away at last with his exclamation, 'How many things are here which I do not want'.

--Samuel Johnson, The Adventurer, #119, December 25, 1753.

spqr0a130

How so? That is insight I would like to see. QM does not come readily to my mind from this post.

Vaniver100

Eliezer's presentation of QM seems like stealing chaos to me. Articles like this come to mind. At the very least, I suspect he magnifies the amount of chaos in physics- the default position at my school was "shut up and calculate" agnosticism, and quotes from prominent physicists suggest that's been a significant (if not the dominant) position for a long time.

spqr0a100

I am trying to access the full article through my library system but it will take some time. It is worth noting that my goal is for light to make me sneeze, if and only if I already feel like sneezing. This is different from ACHOO syndrome as generally described; so I am unsure whether my technique uses the same biological mechanism.

EDIT: Until reading your post I had not considered the possibility that I may be a carrier who had not yet expressed this trait. I thought that I would be able to acquire it through conditioning regardless. Lack of a response f... (read more)

spqr0a120

Primarily I was looking for an exercise in conditioning, any practical benefits are ancillary. If progress continues, I will not sneeze unless a specific trigger is present (staring at a very bright light); so it should be a passive benefit with no long-term upkeep. If you have better ways of control sneezing, I am interested in knowing them.

0Davorak
I consider it a low probability that I have enough experience/knowledge to generalize my understanding/perceptions to a wide audience with fidelity. If you want to talk about it over the phone or on skype some time I would be happy to oblige. Quick iterative discussion can do much to shorten inferential distance and if a common understanding is found easily it might be worth writing up and posting.
spqr0a120

A friend of mine naturally exhibits exclusively photosensitive sneezing. So I thought it would be interesting to try. This study suggests it is primarily acquired and not inherited so I figured it was worth a shot.

2JenniferRM
I'd heard a while ago that the photic sneeze reflex was a so-called Mendelian trait which might actually be a "simple Mendelian trait". Having found so many other cases where such claims didn't pan out, I guess at this point I shouldn't be very surprised when another "simple Mendelian inheritance" story turns out to be complicated :-P I only read the abstract of your linked study rather than methods and everything. Out of curiosity (if you read the whole thing), did they disentangle the causal factors behind variation in the trait? Like, did they distinguish between hypotheses such as "actual non-ACHOO-carriers can acquire the reflex based on life experience" vs "only carriers can acquire the trait, but penetrance increases with age, giving the potentially false appearance of people acquiring it based purely on environmental factors"?
1Davorak
Do you just want to learn to control your sneezes? Or are you interested in the photosensitive effect directly? If the former I would encourage you to learn more direct control mechanism rather then using a external trigger like light. edit: spelling
spqr0a170

Both, definitely. I do parkour regularly; I can reliably run (or walk backwards) on a 7cm wide beam, and am practicing rolls. I lift weights once per week and will move to twice weekly if I want substantially more arm strength than I have now. I also hike often. I have made large gains in physical fitness; as a kid I was always near the slowest of my peers, now I am one of the fastest runners in my laser tag club.

5Crux
Parkour! I do it too, and Daniel Ilabaca is definitely one of my heroes. If I could say just one thing about parkour, I would say that it's not about taking thoughtless risks (linked for what he says after the jump), and not even necessarily about taking calculated ones. I personally (try to) operate under a strict maxim to never attempt any movement where I'm not trained to compensate for every possible way of messing up. I never climb anything that I can't fall off safely. Etc. This entails not just focusing on mastering the cool techniques, but also mastering all the different falling techniques to facilitate safe training. This is fine by me anyway; training the falling techniques is no worse exercise than the power moves in Ilabaca's videos. I personally am in it for the exercise and athletic development, so injuring myself would be especially counter-productive. Parkour is unlike something such as tricking, in that for every technique there's always a safe and reliable progression; it's neither dangerous nor injurious unless you practice irresponsibly and make it so. I hope to at some point develop an organized system of pre-requisites for each movement such that anybody could move through the progressions safely and reliably. That's one thing I'm working on, I suppose. The main contribution would be that it would systematize the falling techniques and perhaps invent new ones. Good parkour practitioners are generally extremely good at falling, but only because they fall a lot. It's perhaps mostly unconscious and instinctual, whereas I would make it systematic. Maybe this has been done (in which case I would appreciate a link), but I haven't seen it, and anyway parkour is a very young discipline (with a lot of risk-takers), so it would by no means be surprising if such a systematic approach doesn't exist. Anyway, I'm writing this somewhat for myself, but also for spqr0a1 and a general audience. I needed to remind myself why I do parkour and how I should ap
spqr0a1150

For over a year now, making full use of my body has been a big hobby. To this end, I am learning silly human tricks. It has taken a few weeks of sporadic effort and I am now able to snap my fingers consistantly. My next goal is to be able to whistle. I have made little progress so far and am not yet able to whistle particular notes. Previously successful projects of this type were refining my senses of smell and temperature. Now I can reliably tell the temperature of water or air to the degree C with a range of roughly -20 to 45C. Calibrating my sense of ... (read more)

2Daniel_Burfoot
I think it would be awesome to simultaneously refine my sense of smell and my knowledge of biochemistry to the point where I could identify the actual molecules in the air. So I could detect a scent and think to myself "hey, that's a flavonoid."
2atucker
This sounds awesome, but I'm fairly mystified as to why you picked that particular goal.
3atorm
When you say "making full use of my body", are you merely learning, as you say, "tricks", or are you also developing your muscles and body-senses (proprioception, balance) so that you can move yourself and other things as efficiently as possible?
spqr0a130

It appears your link to the article is broken. Try this one instead. http://lesswrong.com/lw/j9/radical_honesty/

1MinibearRex
Fixed.
spqr0a100

I have taken up baking. I'm baking a loaf of bread or batch of biscuits every day. It requires little effort to prepare and I quite enjoy the taste.

Trying to train myself to only sneeze while looking at a bright light. Over the last three weeks I have sneezed roughly 50 times and just twice without looking at a light. If this works, it will make sneezing less frequent and inconvenient.