This is a description of communication strategies which have been helpful to me in social situations where I was confused. It is relatively unedited; some of the content may be obvious and banal, or redundant. [Edited to move out of footnote, thanks Aorou] I am autistic, and often have had...
The relationship between money and value is not linear or consistent. This means betting odds don't necessarily correspond to the probability of an event. -- Converting money to value is done by exchanging it for things you want. The value of increasing your wealth by n dollars is bounded by...
Thank you for writing this post. This is a phenomenon I've also noticed, and it applies not just to arguing but to anything to do with reasoning about groups of people. Mistakes of the type "mistakenly attributed characteristic of group to person" are common. As you said in a comment, the way that we group people is usually very lossy. This is especially frustrating for those who have to deal with the same mistaken assumption being made about them often. Making inferences about specific people based on group generalizations is useful sometimes, but acting on them wrongly often has steep costs in misunderstanding and conflict. It's good to be reminded to keep close track of where you're making this type of inference.
Thank you for the suggestion! I moved the context out of the footnote.
This is a description of communication strategies which have been helpful to me in social situations where I was confused. It is relatively unedited; some of the content may be obvious and banal, or redundant.
[Edited to move out of footnote, thanks Aorou] I am autistic, and often have had difficulty with communication. These are some things these strategies have helped me with:
-difficulty distinguishing tone of conversations, difficulty speaking in a particular tone or matching the tone of a conversation
- feeling afraid to "say the wrong thing"
-speaking in more literal terms than most people, interpreting statements more literally than they were intended
-feeling like people are engaged in a social game that I don't understand
-... (read 2093 more words →)
I agree that most of the bets here are accurate indications of probability; most are in the range of 20-1000 dollars, and also there is a culture of honesty that seems like it would prevent offering a bet that didn't reflect someone's probability of an event while representing that it did.
The most common case I see where betting odds and probability don't match is with really small values.
It seems to be encouraged here to spontaneously do friendly betting in person. From my experience, this usually involves pretty small values (0-10 dollars) paid in cash. If I won a small bet like that I might buy a bag of chips, or something,... (read more)
The relationship between money and value is not linear or consistent. This means betting odds don't necessarily correspond to the probability of an event.
--
Converting money to value is done by exchanging it for things you want. The value of increasing your wealth by dollars is bounded by the most valuable thing you might use more dollars for. The most valuable thing you might do with more dollars is affected by what you want and what you know how to get.
People's efficiency at converting money to value changes on short-term and long-term scales, and depends on how much money they have in total.
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We can graph the value to a person of increasing their wealth by dollars from... (read 897 more words →)
I worry about "predictive" history classes being even more like indoctrination than current ones, if implemented with tests on obscure historical examples as you suggest. Explicitly teaching students about general historical lessons which extend to the future can easily turn into politics. There are strong incentives to pick and choose historical examples which generalize to the lessons the teacher or administration supports politically.
Current history classes at least have the strength that they teach students how to conduct research about known, factual questions. Even if they are only "studying to the test," students usually have to spend some portion of time writing research papers which demonstrate an understanding, based on evidence, of some... (read more)