I think there is one scenario you have left out, where the shooting war sort of stagnates, but is still fairly intense, and Russia bleeds itself out economically and socially maintaining the war. So, neither escalation nor de-escalation. I don't consider it to be a deescalation (Ie. "Libya"), because it's a form of loss for Russia, but it's slow enough that it doesn't necessarily register immediately as a "Vietnam" and there's time for internal unrest. At some point they will implode internally (coup/revolution/whatever), or they will escalate, or both. No... (read more)
I think there is one scenario you have left out, where the shooting war sort of stagnates, but is still fairly intense, and Russia bleeds itself out economically and socially maintaining the war. So, neither escalation nor de-escalation. I don't consider it to be a deescalation (Ie. "Libya"), because it's a form of loss for Russia, but it's slow enough that it doesn't necessarily register immediately as a "Vietnam" and there's time for internal unrest. At some point they will implode internally (coup/revolution/whatever), or they will escalate, or both. No... (read more)