All of ThePrussian's Comments + Replies

Thanks, that is good advice. Honestly hadn't thought of that - oh well. Errare humanum est and all that...

Hi everyone.

I've already posted a couple of pieces - probably should have visited this page first, especially before posting my last piece. Well, such is life.

I headed over to LessWrong because I was/am a bit burned out by the high-octane conversations that go on online. I've disagreed with some things I've read here, but never wanted to beat my head - or someone else's - against a wall. So, I'm here to learn. I like the sequences have picked up some good points already - especially about replacing the symbol with the substance.

Question - what's ... (read more)

2Username
Welcome!
6Viliam
My guess is: it is okay, if it would be okay to post the same content here. Please provide a short summary when linking.

I was wondering why it got downvoted so much. Did you mean the post over at my blog, or this post here? I'm really not sure what's so inflammatory about this post - I was just trying to explain an idea.

3Viliam
I meant this post here, because this is the one you have posted here. However, if you would post here the other one, I would mean that one too. Essentially, you should separate your main point from the specific political examples, and preferably use historical examples that no one cares about deeply. Mixing logic and emotionally powerful political examples together has the effect that people who don't share your political opinions may stop listening to the logic. Even the people who do share your political opinions may stop listening to the logic and just enjoy the fact that they found someone who agrees with them. There is an evolutionary reason for this -- when politics get debated, joining the winning side makes you more likely to survive and reproduce than focusing on being right; especially in an ancient environment. (Yeah, maybe your leader proposes something that will make you all starve in winter; but if you oppose him now, you may get killed now, which is even worse for you.) As much as we try to avoid this effect, it exists. So it is better to get our points across without activating the "I have to join the winning side or die" circuits of our brains too much. The downvotes without explanation are probably because people who are offended by your examples (because they disagree with you politically) just downvote and leave, and only those not offended remain and participate in the discussion.

Yes, as a matter of fact. He often travelled in Kurdistan, had Kurdish "comrades" as he called them, and championed Jalal Talabani.

I should have made it clear - when I was referring to the articles on the Hitch, they were usually from respectable news organizations such as The Guardian or Salon - and so on.

In case it wasn't clear (reviewing the article) I was quoting Conservapedia as an example of this kind of bad arguing, bad reasoning.

Could be two different uses of the word rationality. There are certainly those who call themselves "reality based" or whatever and therefore assume that everything they assert is rational and scientific. But if you invest yourself in "doing rationality" rather than "being rational" you might do better.

0AlexanderRM
I think that might help somewhat- thinking of rationality as something you do rather than something you are is definitely good regardless- but there's still the basic problem that your self-esteem is invested in rationality. Rationality requires you to continually be willing to doubt your core values and consider that they might be wrong, and if your core values are wrong, then you haven't gotten any use up to that point out of your rationality. I don't think it's just a matter of realizing your were wrong once and recovering self-esteem out of the fact that you were rational enough to see that- ideally you ought to constantly consider the possibility that everything you believe might be wrong. Now, if you can get up to the level of thinking I just described, that's probably still a lot better than basing your self-esteem on specific political views. It just doesn't totally solve the problem, and you need to be aware that it doesn't totally solve the problem.
-3ChristianKl
What exactly do you mean with "doing rationality"?

Could you expand on that? I'm not sure I follow...

1David_Bolin
Human beings are not very willing to be rational, and that includes those of us on Less Wrong.
2ChristianKl
If one bases one's self-esteem on one's rationality and one is a human who's frequently doing things that are not rational, being honest about one's state is depressing.

Thanks - you're quite right. That is the study I was thinking of, and 79% is still horrifyingly high - sorry for getting that wrong, and thanks for the correction!

Just to take your last point, my response is that this is both a strawman and an argument from intimidation. Take this:

"you make the claim Hitler's sole motivation was killing Jews"

Did I? Where? I said that Hitler's motivation was his fanatical racism and that the desire to murder the Jews was a large part of that - was, in fact, an inextricable part of that. His racism wasn't the result of the war, it was the cause of the war. As you admit towards the end.

"You know what would be even more effective for pursuing an overriding terminal... (read more)

You don't... but others do. Dinesh D'Souza has written a book detailing the "root causes" argument, but with a twist - the quotations and other evidence he amasses are from a socially conservative perspective. That is, he makes exactly the same, fully backed up "root causes" argument, but differs on the root causes in question.

Again, I am trying to make the point that what you find obvious isn't at all what others find obvious. People change radically across time and space.

"No doubt they disapprove of many aspects of the American lifestyle, but mostly they are interested in signalling to their fellow Muslims the purity of their opposition to US power in the middle east."

But why do they object to US power? They object, in their own words, to US power because it dilutes the purity of Islam. They are not struggling for national liberation, but for theocracy. Their explicit goal is the establishment of a vast theocractic empire - the attack on America was a part of that, to rally the faithful to their cause. Ta... (read more)

1knb
Overthrowing Muslim governments (including democratically elected governments), massive military, logistical, and even direct participation in Saddam Hussein's attack on Iran, invading and occupying various countries, etc. No, I don't believe US pop culture is a major reason they attack the US.

May I make an assumption? I'm guessing you're American - it's that phrase about "right wing Christianity". The problem is that America doesn't have anything like real Christian fanaticism. It has some people who are upset about gay marriage and evolution and that's it.

Europeans, on the other hand, have had the real thing in living memory. We're not talking about "the Moral Majority" here, but the Legion of the Archangel Michael, or the Falange. This is the real thing, real fanaticism, and what you learn is that true faith, true belief does indeed inspire war.

This is what I mean when I say you cannot assume that other people think the way you do.

1hairyfigment
You're proving what I see as the point of the grandparent. This hasn't happened in America - unless you count the KKK, starting during the occupation of the South - because the actual causes were absent.

One line disproof: There have been a grand total of zero terrorist attacks on the United States from Vietnam, easily the most destructive and wicked war the US has ever waged - if people whose kids are still being born with birth defects don't decide to fly planes into buildings, I think it is safe to say that something else is going on.

Again, this ignores the stated intentions and demands of Al Qaeda, to recreate the lost caliphate and enforce the most fanatical Islamic rule within it, a global Taliban style rule. It also ignores things like Al Qaeda's stated support for the genocide in East Timor or Darfur.

On the other hand, you get exactly that impression by reading... what the actual Nazis said, all the way to the top, and the experiences of people living through that period. During the height of the second world war, they insisted on using scarce resources like trains and troops to keep up the Jew killing - they were willing to risk their own war aims to complete this task.

You keep citing these books but you don't give any evidence from them.

The entire program was to saturate society with racial hatred and frenzy. Children in school were terrified b... (read more)

0gwern
They also talked a great deal about the threat from Great Britain, France, the USA, and the USSR. You're completely ignoring this. If a word count were done, which would be bigger? I know what I expect. You're arguing that Hitler talked about the Jews a lot, which is totally uncontroversial, but does not prove your point: that he talked about Jews the most of all topics that concerned him. You know what would be even more effective for pursuing an overriding terminal goal of killing Jews and nothing else? Not starting that war in the first place. That's the problem: all the effort and resources thrown into the concentration camps late in the game absolutely pale in comparison to the efforts put into the war and rearmament - they wrecked the German economy just preparing for WWII, never mind actually running it. The entire mass of Wages of Destruction, to focus on one, is devoted to marshaling the evidence and details about the reorganization of the German economy and Hitler's grand strategic plan (as mentioned in his Mein Kampf sequel, which I note you're not mentioning despite your interest in 'what the actual Nazis said') to fight the USA, in which the slave labor camps of millions of people (only some of which were Jews) were a late solution for acute labor shortages and the killings purely tangential. What am I going to do, paste the whole book inline? There's not any one detail that's decisive, it's the whole thrust of the reorganization of German society from the tiny inefficient farmer up to the industrial giants and his activities during the war which combine to show that Jews were a matter more of rhetoric than the overriding terminal end goal to which all of all Hitler's plans were subordinate, as you claim. Which is different from a terminal end-all-be-all goal of 'killing Jews'. I think you're engaged in just motte-and-bailey tactics here: you make the claim Hitler's sole motivation was killing Jews, and when you get any pushback, you retreat to som

If you start an eastward invasion in June, you end up in Russia in Winter. Which is what happened. Which is why Hitler's generals were against it. It's not difficult to work out - Napoleon did the same thing.

0IlyaShpitser
Ok, no longer confused about what's happening here. Exiting conversation.
6Lumifer
First, in the context I don't think the difference between Ukraine, Belorussia, etc. and Russia proper is in any way meaningful. Second, the Russian town of Smolensk fell by late July. By August Novgorod was taken and the Germans got close to Leningrad. The battle for Moscow started in early October. As opposed to Napoleon, the Germans planned a blitzkrieg -- the "blitz" part is there for a reason. You are not making any sense.

See above - Hitler's armies didn't invade Russia until winter.

There's no problem there whatsoever - Hitler always intended to march against Russia, not least to wipe out or enslave the Slavs. The pact just allowed him some breathing space.

0Lumifer
Sorry, whaaaat?

That's a common misunderstanding. Barbarossa begins in June, but the push into Russia proper does not happen until the winter. Which is what was predictable if you start such an invasion in June.

0IlyaShpitser
??? Are you talking about the invasion plans? The original estimate was was for the Red Army to fold in a few weeks. Do you have any references for your claim that the Germans planned for a "Russia proper" push to happen in winter of 1941-42?

This is all said long before Hitler was even a lunatic fringe candidate, though I repeat myself. Was Hitler always obsessed with race and Jew-hatred? Yep. Did his actions seem in accord with this? Amazingly so.

Take your comment on the USSR - why did Hitler insist on breaking the pact and invading Russian in winter? The answer is that he regarded Communism as "Judeo-Bolshevism", a Jewish plot against the Aryan race. Again, why did Nazism never take in the East when people began by welcoming the Wehrmacht's advance? Because in Nazi racia... (read more)

3gwern
Hitler said a lot of things long before he became a candidate. He loved to talk. Not amazingly so. The Jewish problem was a back-burner issue which was pursued with minor energy and in a variety of ways like allowing emigration and planning expulsion to Madagascar compared to much bigger issues like re-arming Germany, reducing unemployment, preparing for war with America & USSR, etc. Read through something like Wage of Destruction or Savage Continent, and one does not get the impression at all that killing Jews was Hitler's top priority, or even fifth top priority. You keep stating this and I'm not seeing it. There's only a straight line from parts of Mein Kampf to Dachau when you ignore everything else.
0IlyaShpitser
Hitler invaded on June 22, was planning to be done before the frost set in, and was (I think correctly) worried about Stalin's double cross at some point down the line. ---------------------------------------- A German invasion backed by a less insane ideology would have won as well, I think.
3Lumifer
Nitpick: Hitler invaded Russia in the middle of summer. That answer has problems explaining the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

"Bin Laden himself may or may not have theocratic aims" - May or may not?

"My point was that without the political grievances, he just becomes some fanatic spouting rhetoric. With political grievances, he has supporters and recruits." Once again, this assumes that his supporters and recruits think in a way that follows yours. I have to just say [citation needed]. Let's take one example: 99% of Afghans think that the punishment for apostasy should be death. The assumption that there is not a large support for theocracy is unwarrante... (read more)

1satt
That number struck me as surprisingly high, so I went looking for the source and I think it's this. The 99% number is for "Muslims who favor making Islamic law the official law" in Afghanistan. The death-for-apostasy proportion is actually only 79% for pro-sharia Afghan Muslims (which is still 79% too high, but isn't 99%).
-4Epictetus
Correct. In the field of politics, the stated reasons for an action are those judged most palatable and most persuasive to the audience. For example, very few countries will cite exploitation of natural resources as a reason for war. It's always some humanitarian reason or a tortured reading of an ancient treaty that grants them the "right" to certain lands. It assumes that one should take notice that the hotbeds of terrorism happen to be places that were formerly subjects of imperialist policies or were treated as pawns during the Cold War. Do they hate America because of their religion, or did they turn to religion as an avenue for handling their grievances?

Aiyaiyai - I take twenty four hours break and I am knee deep in responses! My answer is simple: there is an explicit call for genocide laid out in a book called Mein Kampf, as well as an explicit racial theory that holds that Aryans are becoming polluted through interbreeding - that unless drastic action is taken, the Aryan will vanish from the world. This book, and similar incitements and theories, long predate Hitler even being a lunatic fringe candidate.

2gwern
Hitler says a lot of things in Mein Kampf, why single that out? He also says a lot of things in its sequel. Politicians say a lot of things they don't mean, much like political parties say a lot of things they have no real interest in in their platforms. And your model predicts he would want to kill all races, not Jews in particular. If your best evidence is 'Hitler talked about killing Jews', then I'm not convinced that it was the ultimate overriding goal of Hitler, and I find the detailed accounts in his other writings and works like Wages of Destruction much more convincing that he was more concerned with defeating America & the USSR than he was with the Jewish problem.

Ah, sorry, it was a little unclear and we were talking past each other there.

"From your perspective the point is to make the dhimmi feel subdued, but I don't think you have shown that's the point in that particular passage."

I could cite source after source of Islamic jihad scholars who explain that this is the purpose of the jizya and the surrounding institutions of degradation and subordination that make up dhimmitude - but this comment is, sadly, not large enough to hold it. So if I might suggest you take a look into the doctrines and history of dhimmitude and see how it was used.

Good discussion, but sadly I need to be travelling now, and hope to continue at a later date.

That comment rather illustrates the mistake I mean. Take that last point about neo-Nazis, it is exactly like what Orwell said, that there are people who do not understand that others can be motivated by racial frenzy. Some of Hitler's early backers were simple crooks who thought they were using him for relatively prosaic political ends, but Hitler had his own ends that he pushed through with some force.

Similarly you say that when bin Laden condemns American decadence or depravity from an Islamic perspective, that's just propaganda to advance a politica... (read more)

6gwern
Claiming Hitler's end goal was solely the extermination of the Jews clashes very badly with many things I know about Nazi Germany, such as the Madagascar plans and details of Jewish emigration (as covered in The Wages of Destruction, most recently). Can you provide any cites of reputable historians who believe that killing Jews qua Jews was the sum total of Hitler's end-ambitions rather than a side-goal on the way to a world German empire or other goals?
2passive_fist
Maybe not so inexplicable if you read Hitler's own writings. He clearly says that his policy of 'removal' of Jews is due to their involvement with the banking industry which, in Hitler's view, was one of the main reasons for Germany's troubled state. Of course that reasoning wasn't justified but it's not so clear to me that his terminal goal was eradication of Jews. Maybe he was convinced of his own lies.
3ChristianKl
I don't think Hitler considered them productive minorities. Today you have plenty of people who don't consider the banking class to be productive. The lines between an occupying army and an army who just defends aren't as sharp. He seems to believe that the US does exert political pressure on Saudi Arabia to do what the US wants. It's not easy to find Europeans who also don't like US bases in their own countries without any religious justification.
2Epictetus
Hate groups have been an object of interest to law enforcement and psychologists for some years now. Most members are socially maladjusted and have trouble dealing with their insecurities. The "racial frenzy" arises from group dynamics. It provides group cohesion and gives the members a shared sense of purpose. It may motivate the group action, but it's not what drew people to the group to begin with. Here's one model of hate groups. I did read Orwell's essay. He makes an excellent point about intellectuals failing to properly understand the powerful emotions that can motivate a group to unified action. I won't contest the role of group identity and group dynamics. What I wish to examine are the motivations that lead people to associate with hate groups or terrorist networks in the first place. Bin Laden himself may or may not have theocratic aims. My point was that without the political grievances, he just becomes some fanatic spouting rhetoric. With political grievances, he has supporters and recruits. I call it superficial because it just so happens to align perfectly with our own interests. It demonizes the enemy and provides a casus belli. What it fails to do is answer the question of why radical Islam has become so popular in recent decades.

I never said bin Laden shows "moral deprivation", I said he had a morality that had nothing in common with that of the West. Again, in his list of demands, the first thing, the very first, is a call to submit to Islam, next to abolish usury, homosexuality etc., next to admit that the US is "a nation without principles and manner", and then, and only then, to stop supporting Israel in Palestine, or India's claim to Kashmir.

The jizya isn't just a tax, it is an integral part of the system of subordination and degradation of the dhimmi. ... (read more)

0ChristianKl
Nor have I claimed that you said so. I claimed that you advocate that freedom of the west (or moral deprivation from Bin Ladin's perspective) is sufficient for Bin Ladin waging war against the US. That's what I understand "They attacked us because they hate our freedom" to mean. From your perspective the point is to make the dhimmi feel subdued, but I don't think you have shown that's the point in that particular passage. The point I was making is that you quote without providing context. It's quite easy to quote without naming sources in a way that allows you to make them appear worse than they are. If we are playing that game, than Harris was advocating that it's okay for the US to kill Aghans outside of what's tradtionally allowed by interantional law while other people do think that international law is important.

Sorry if this wasn't clear, but the whole document is called "Why We Are Fighting You". And I think that you have missed the following line at the end:

"If you fail to respond to all these conditions, then prepare for fight with the Islamic Nation"

"All these conditions". Not some. Not just Palestine or support for autocrats in the middle east. All these conditions, and in writing the first one as the submission to Islam, bin Laden is in tune with centuries of similar thinkers.

I was quoting from a book called "The A... (read more)

1ChristianKl
The point of the exercise is understanding motivations for actions. I don't think that document shows that "moral deprivation" it's sufficient for Bin Laden to justify a violent attack in which civilians die. Bin Laden would be happy if the whole world would turn to Islam but that's not how he justifies the use of force where civilians die, in that document. In what context? Picking statements out of context allows you to do many things with another persons message. Sam Harris writes in his book that he thinks it's justified to kill people for what they believe. Specially Afghans. Paying taxes to the government of a country isn't that strange from a Western perspective.

" War was not so costly in human lives and suffering when it was about a tribe raiding another with arrows and bows." I simply cannot agree. If you make the adjustment for per capita deaths, then the kill rates of primitve tribes are far higher than that of modern armies. The Mongols only had ponies and bows and arrows, and look at what they did. When Tamerlane lead an Islamic jihad of the Indian subcontinent, he may well have killed 5% of then existing humanity.

1PhilGoetz
In World War 1, the casualty rates for Germany, Austria, and Russia were about 75%. Probably not much different in World War 2; possibly higher in the Napoleonic wars. I haven't checked.

Could it be the high barrier to entry? I'm not an expert, but I have the impression that the biomedical field is regulated up the wazoo. I've been thinking about what it'd take to get a basic company off the ground, and the main trouble that occurs to me is the regulation upon regulation that is required to do anything with human cells - let alone medical procedures!

2PhilGoetz
If the regulations on human cells were applied consistently, you'd need a review committee, a hazmat suit, a HEPA filter, and a negative air pressure containment unit each time you went to the bathroom.

That is... pretty impressive.

First post for me here, but I've been following this technology for the last ten years. This is an interesting idea, well worth following up on. I would have to say that the best thought here is that, if others aren't doing it, to do it yourself. I'm stealing this idea for my idea for a company, if you don't move on't first. Sound good?