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All of therewaslight's Comments + Replies

Fight Zero-Sum Bias
therewaslight00

The assertion is that people have a tendency to see things as zero sum even when they are not. Do you see why giving an example that is zero sum in some sense and not in another doesn't impact the validity of that claim?

Yes, but why is it new and useful information to know that people might have a zero-sum bias when one is aware one does not have an objective way to decide whether one should act to correct it in any given situation - i.e. should preference be given to the individual or the group, or the group or groups?

The concept "fight zero-sum ... (read more)

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0JoshuaZ
Well, in general, being more aware of biases makes one more able to compensate for them if one has some set of goals. Many LWers are utilitarians for example in which case the group, indeed, the largest group, is all that's relevant. In that context, this sort of bias could serously matter. This may be a good point. To myself the word fight doesn't have such strong connotations but it may very well do so for lots of people. This seems like a very good point. Foolish optimism of that sort is very common. The Ponzi scheme example is a very good one which seriously undermines the central claim in the essay.
Fight Zero-Sum Bias
therewaslight20

//The claim being made is that there are situations which are unambiguously not zero sum.//

I don't disagree with that claim.

//You haven't addressed that.//

A man called Nick Clegg recently took the advice of the author and acted against his zero-sum bias and decided to work with a leader from an opposition political party in a coalition government.

The outcome was positive-sum for Nick Clegg because he got to be Deputy Prime Minister, and for David Cameron because he got to be Prime Minister.

However, a lot of Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters (who a... (read more)

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0JoshuaZ
Ok, minor note, the standard quote format on LW uses a ">" at the beginning of what you want to quote. Then you don't seem to actually disagree much with the essay in question. So? It isn't going to apply in every situation. I'm going to try to make this point one last time because it doesn't seem to be sinking in: The claim isn't that we should see situations as not zero sum when they are, or that we shouldn't be careful to consider what the sums are for different groups. The assertion is that people have a tendency to see things as zero sum even when they are not. Do you see why giving an example that is zero sum in some sense and not in another doesn't impact the validity of that claim? Unfortunately, humans are not naturally good Bayesianisms. We're not even naturally good traditional rationalists. We have a lot of cognitive biases. When we talk on LW about fighting we mean fighting against those biases so we can reason more accurately. Don't confusion fighting with some sort of deep ideological meaning. In this sense, fighting means something like grappling with oneself. The only ones we are fighting with is our imperfect reasoning algorithms that evolved to handle a very different environment.
3LucasSloan
In Less Wrong, you get a quote by putting a ">" in front of a line. There's a button labeled "Help" under the box where you input comments that explains the formatting.
Fight Zero-Sum Bias
therewaslight-10

Sorry, I don't understand. Since when was the loser the winner?

What I mean is when Individual A and Individual B agree on a solution to ruling State X those INDIVIDUALS are the winners - the individual is the unit of winner.

But simultaneously there is a game going on between State X and State Y. The resolution of the leadership contest between A and B may have been positive-sum at the level of the individuals involved but what about at the level of the State?

And if it is bad for the state then it is bad for the individuals so what appeared to be a posi... (read more)

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2JoshuaZ
What does this mean? What do you mean by ideological and what do you mean by scientific? The point of Less Wrong is to be, well, less wrong. Is that an ideological goal? We like reducing cognitive biases and getting a better understanding of reality. Do you consider that to be ideological? And if this essay is ideological rather than scientific, why does that matter?
2Matt_Simpson
i misunderstood your post. The unit of winner is an individual - that seems pretty obvious in this context. Organizations don't act, only individuals. What I was talking about (and what I thought you were asking) was the group of people you use to judge whether the game is zero sum or not, and that is... All parties who gain or lose in the transaction. Just no. If hurting the state helps one individual gain more power over the state, it can certainly benefit that individual.
5JoshuaZ
I'm afraid that I don't see how your argument holds water, and simply saying you are correct and repeating your earlier claim fails to help. No one is claiming that there aren't zero sum situations, or claiming that there aren't situations that might be zero sum or non-zero sum depending on the level of analysis. The claim being made is that there are situations which are unambiguously not zero sum. You haven't addressed that. This question makes me wonder if you have read the sequences (they are linked at the upper right hand of the LW page). In general, whenever we have any cognitive bias, the best thing to do is to reduce that cognitive bias. Thus, we should try to be aware when a given bias (in this case a tendency to see zero sum situations where it is not) might be showing up. It may help for you to read the Sequences. No one is claiming that one should act like something is not zero sum when it is. Dealing with a cognitive bias is not accomplished by doing everything the exact opposite of what that bias would push you towards. Reversed stupidity is not intelligence. Fighting a cognitive bias doesn't mean assuming the exact opposite. It means being aware of the bias and being alert for when the bias may be influencing judgment. And the limits of the English language matters for these purposes why exactly? Also, is it possible, if you please, to work a tiny bit on your grammar and punctuation? They make it harder to read what you have to say. I suspect that they are one, somewhat superficial reason you are being voted down. Capitalizing the first word in each sentence would be a nice start.
3orthonormal
Just because a game can be positive-sum doesn't mean dove-like strategies are the best option. See Schelling for examples.
2NancyLebovitz
Cynical?
3JanetK
label uncooperative?
Fight Zero-Sum Bias
therewaslight-30

and I have a match... as long as situations have the potential to be regarded by the unit of winner (individual, family, group?) as zero-sum then you're stuffed.

as I said below resolving a situation as positive-sum just shifts the zero-sum situation to another level: e.g. you vote in a Hawk|Dove leader as President, it's a win-win for sub-state groups but your state loses versus both the Doves and Hawks.

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Fight Zero-Sum Bias
therewaslight-20

Can you not see the irony in the title of your post: "Fight Zero-Sum Bias"?

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Fight Zero-Sum Bias
therewaslight00

Another thing - what is your unit of winner?

The individual? The family? The group?

You are assuming scenarios such as Person A versus Person B, etc. What about Person A1 versus Group A which consists of Person Ans when there is simultaneous a game played between Group A and Group B?

Person A1 wants to be leader of Group A, and is in a run off with Person A2 for the role. Person A1 is running on making Group A's economy sound but Person A2 promises to protect Group A against threats made by Group B.

How can this situation, which is a very common trade-off in... (read more)

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0Matt_Simpson
All parties who gain or lose in the transaction.
3JoshuaZ
You're missing the point. The claim being made is not that zero sum situations don't exist. The argument being made by the essay is that non-zero sum situations exist and that it is a problem when people erroneously label non-zero sum situations as zero sum situations.
-2therewaslight
Can you not see the irony in the title of your post: "Fight Zero-Sum Bias"?
Fight Zero-Sum Bias
therewaslight20

But how do you resolve a situation where there is actually only enough of a resource for one individual or group in a positive-sum manner? The historical record is clear that there are zero-sum situations, and in those situations there can be only one winner.

I don't believe you when you say we live in a world of abundant resources or that we can simply create new resources or that we can design a perpetual motion society of "lasting prosperity".

An argument between you and me over your thesis would not end in two winners. I think it's a silly, ideological, unscientific proposal that is unquantifiable in all its essentials.

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Vladimir_Nesov180

An argument between you and me over your thesis would not end in two winners.

It should. When two people disagree, something is amiss, and when the truth is more clearly discovered, both learn something, maybe a little bit for the person who was right, much more for the person who was wrong. And the only way to discover that you are the person who was wrong, the person who would benefit the most, is to make yourself perceptive to good argument.

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3sketerpot
The claim is not that all situations are positive-sum, but that people tend to see positive-sum situations as zero-sum because that feels natural and intuitive. You're arguing against a straw man.
orthonormal110

An argument between you and me over your thesis would not end in two winners.

If you don't think that arguing about ideas can/should be positive-sum, this may not be the site for you.

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0therewaslight
Another thing - what is your unit of winner? The individual? The family? The group? You are assuming scenarios such as Person A versus Person B, etc. What about Person A1 versus Group A which consists of Person Ans when there is simultaneous a game played between Group A and Group B? Person A1 wants to be leader of Group A, and is in a run off with Person A2 for the role. Person A1 is running on making Group A's economy sound but Person A2 promises to protect Group A against threats made by Group B. How can this situation, which is a very common trade-off in politics, be resolved in a positive-sum way? Seems to me you can only work a "positive-sum" solution by sweeping the zero-sum problem to another level of analysis. If the skills of A1 and A2 are used together, that is a positive-sum alternative, but Group A will then not have sufficient protection and lose against Group B - so Group A loses the zero-sum game. If only A1 or A2 become the leader then either A1 or A2, and the alternative trajectories they stood for, will have lost. What about Group A and Group B getting together to decide to share power? Group A and Group B are comprised of Person Ans and Person Bns. Ans and Bns have different life priorities...
Awful Austrians
therewaslight40

You will know a good epistemology by its fruits.

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