"AI will never be smarter than my dad."
I believe ranked comparing intelligence between two artificial or biological agents can only be down subjectively with someone deciding what they value.
Additionally, I think there is no agreed upon whether the definition "intelligence" should include knowledge. For example, can you consider an AI "smart" if it doesn't know anything about humans?
On the other hand, I value my dad's ability to have knowledge about my childhood and have a model of my behavior across tens of years very highly. Thus, I will never agree that AI is smarter than my dad I will only agree that AI is better at certain cognitive skills while my dad... (read more)
I see two related fundamental problems with the modern discourse around AI.
1) As with most words, there is no agreed upon definition on the term "intelligence".
2) Intelligence is often used in a ranked comparison as a single dimension, e.g. "AI smarter than a human".
When people use the word "intelligence" it seems people often assume it should include various analytical, problem skills, and learning skills. What's less clear if it includes creative skills, communication skills, emotional intelligence, etc.
I think because people often like simplifying concepts and ranking people against each other, term "inteligence" started to be used as a single dimension - "your son is the smartest child in class", "my boyfriend is... (read more)
AI-Caused Extinction Ingredients
Below is what I see is required for AI-Caused Extinction to happen in the next few tens of years (years 2024-2050 or so). In brackets is my very approximate probability estimation as of 2024-07-25 assuming all previous steps have happened.