All of tjohnson314's Comments + Replies

It's probably too late to change this now, but I have a slight nitpick with some of the political questions.

Many of them use "No strong opinion" as the default between more and less. But I believe that leaves out those who have a strong opinion that the current level of, say, taxation is correct.

Another example I've heard is SAT scores. At any given school, the math and verbal scores are negatively correlated, because schools tend to select people who have around the same total score. But overall, math and verbal scores are positively correlated.

I'm from California, where it's legal to split lanes. Most places don't allow that.

I could just decide not to, but the ability to skip traffic that way is probably the single largest benefit of having a motorcycle.

0Fossegrimen
Most states don't allow that, but in Europe it's standard practice. I probably wouldn't bother with the bike if I couldn't.

Here's one example of a change I've made recently, which I think qualifies as x-rationality. When I need to make a decision that depends on a particular piece of data, I now commit to a decision threshold before I look at the data. (I feel like I took this strategy from a LW article, but I don't remember where now.)

For example, I recently had to decide whether it would be worth the potential savings in time and money to commute by motorcycle instead of by car. I set a threshold for what I considered an appropriate level of risk beforehand, and then looked ... (read more)

8Fossegrimen
Huh. I did the same thing and came to the exact opposite conclusion and have been commuting by two-wheeler for 15 years now. What swayed me was: A huge proportion of the accidents involved really excessive speed. A similarly huge proportion happened to untrained motorcyclists. So: If I don't speed (much) and take the time to practice regularly on a track, preferably with an instructor, I have eliminated just about all the serious accidents. In actuality I have had zero accidents outside the track, and the "accidents" on the track has been to deliberately test the limits of myself and the bike. (and on a bike designed to take slides without permanent damage) The cash savings are higher in Europe due to taxes on fuel and vehicles and the size of the bike is more appreciated in cities that are designed in the middle ages, so the upside is larger too, but it seems that we don't have anything like the same risk tolerance. edit: also it is possible that motorcycling is a lot safer in Europe than the US? assuming you are from the US ofc.

Have you made efforts to research it?

This is based on my own experience, and on watching my friends progress through school. I believe that the majority of successful people find their life path because someone inspired them. I don't know where I could even look to find hard numbers on whether that's true or not, but I'd like to be that person for as many people as I can.

That sounds deep, but is obviously false... It does seem very much like you're guided by your warm fuzzies.

My emotional brain is still struggling to accept that, and I don't know wh... (read more)

For me it works in two steps: 1) Notice something that someone would appreciate. 2) Do it for them.

As seems to often be the case with rationality techniques, the hard part is noticing. I'm a Christian, so I try to spend a few minutes praying for my friends each day. Besides the religious reasons, which may or may not matter to you, I believe it puts me in the right frame of mind to want to help others. A non-religious time of focused meditation might serve a similar purpose.

I've also worked on developing my listening skills. Friends frequently mention thin... (read more)

0Philip_W
You seem to be talking about what I would call sympathy, rather than empathy. As I would use it, sympathy is caring about how others feel, and empathy is the ability to (emotionally) sense how others feel. The former is in fine enough state - I am an EA, after all - it's the latter that needs work. Your step (1) could be done via empathy or pattern recognition or plain listening and remembering as you say. So I'm sorry, but this doesn't really help.

(Sorry, I didn't see this until now.)

I'll admit I don't really have data for this. But my intuitive guess is that students don't just need to be able to attend school; they need a personal relationship with a teacher who will inspire them. At least for me, that's a large part of why I'm in the field that I chose.

It's possible that I'm being misled by the warm fuzzy feelings I get from helping someone face-to-face, which I don't get from sending money halfway across the world. But it seems like there's many things that matter in life that don't have a price tag.

4Philip_W
Have you made efforts to research it? Either by trawling papers or by doing experiments yourself? Your objection had already been accounted for: $500 to SCI = around 150 people extra attend school for a year. I estimated the number of students that will have a relationship with their teacher as good as the average you provide at around 1:150. That sounds deep, but is obviously false: would you condemn yourself to a year of torture so that you get one unit of the thing that allegedly doesn't have a price tag (for example a single minute of a conversation with a student where you feel a real connection)? Would you risk a one in a million chance to get punched on the arm in order to get the same unit? If the answer to these questions is [no] and [yes] respectively, as I would expect them to be, those are outer limits on the price range. Getting to the true value is just a matter of convergence. Perhaps more to the point, though, those people you would help halfway across the world are just as real, and their lives just as filled with "things that don't have a price tag" as people in your environment. For $3000, one family is not torn apart by a death from malaria. For $3, one child more attends grade school regularly for a year because they are no longer ill from parasitic stomach infections. These are not price tags, these are trades you can actually make. Make the trades, and you set a lower limit. Refuse them, and the maximum price tag you put on a child's relationship with their teacher is set, period. It does seem very much like you're guided by your warm fuzzies.

"You should never bet against anything in science at odds of more than about 10^12 to 1 against."

  • Ernest Rutherford
0DanielLC
The neutrino anomaly was about 5*10^6 to 1 against. Not quite 10^12 to 1, but I still think it shows that odds that small aren't what they're cracked up to be.
2gwern
Alas, as nice a quote as it is, it seems to be bogus: * previous discussion: http://lesswrong.com/lw/i7t/rationality_quotes_august_2013/9ljz * WP discussion to which I've added my failed attempts to find the original: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Ernest_Rutherford#Odds_of_1012_to_1.

I'm sympathetic to the effective altruist movement, and when I do periodically donate, I try to do so as efficiently as possible. But I don't focus much effort on it. I've concluded that my impact probably comes mostly from my everyday interactions with people around me, not from money that I send across the world.

For example:

  • The best way for me to improve math and science education is to work on my own teaching ability.
  • The best way for me to improve the mental health of college students is to make time to support friends that struggle with depression a
... (read more)
1Philip_W
(separated from the other comment, because they're basically independent threads). This sounds unlikely. You say you're improving the education and mental health of on-the-order-of 100 students. Deworm the World and SCI improve attendance of schools by 25%, meaning you would have the same effect, as a first guess and to first order at least, by donating on-the-order-of $500/yr. And that's just one of the side-effects of ~600 people not feeling ill all the time. So if you primarily care about helping people live better lives, $50/yr to SCI ought to equal your stated current efforts. However, that doesn't count flow-through effects. EA is rare enough that you might actually get a large portion of the credit of convincing someone to donate to a more effective charity, or even become an effective altruist: expected marginal utility isn't conserved across multiple agents (if you have five agents who can press a button, and all have to press their buttons to save one person's life, each of them has the full choice of saving or failing to save someone, assuming they expect the others to press the button too, so each of them has the expected marginal utility of saving a life). Since it's probably more likely that you convince someone else to donate more effective than that one of the dewormed people will be able to have a major impact because of their deworming, flow-through effects should be very strong for advocacy relative to direct donation. To quantify: Americans give 1% of their incomes to poverty charities, so let's make that $0.5k/yr/student. Let's say that convincing one student to donate to SCI would get them to donate that much more effectively about 5 years sooner than otherwise (those willing would hopefully be roped in eventually regardless). Let's also say SCI is five times more effective than their current charities. That means you win $2k to SCI for every student you convince to alter their donation patterns. You probably enjoy helping people directly (
0Philip_W
Could you explain how? My empathy is pretty weak and could use some boosting.
0Capla
This is key.
6Ixiel
I would love to see a splinter group, Efficient Altruism. I have no desire to give as much as I can afford, but feel VERY strongly about giving as efficiently to the causes I support as I can. When I read, I think from EA themselves, the estimated difference in efficiency of African aid organizations, it changed my whole perspective on charity.