Related to: Counterfactual Mugging, The Least Convenient Possible World
MBlume said:
What would you do in situation X?" and "What would you like to pre-commit to doing, should you ever encounter situation X?" should, to a rational agent, be one and the same question.
Applied to Vladimir Nesov's counterfactual mugging, the reasoning is then:
Precommitting to paying $100 to Omega has expected utility of $4950.p(Omega appears). Not precommitting has strictly less utility; therefore I should precommit to paying. Therefore I should, in fact, pay $100 in the event (Omega appears, coin is tails).
To combat the argument that it is more likely that one is insane than that Omega has appeared, Eliezer said:
So imagine yourself in the
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The first image is a dead hotlink. It's in the internet archive and I've uploaded it to imgur.