All of TrE's Comments + Replies

I'm pretty sure "Humans, please ignore this post" wasn't serious, and this article is mainly for humans.

8Jayson_Virissimo
So we can conclude that although David was smart enough to escape his sandbox, he isn't yet at the level of understanding human-style humor.

Or their mom might be a hacker.

Incidentally, there are many cases where I don't care about my username at all and have to come up with something. I'd find it acceptable if they'd just give me a number and a password, or let me register just with a password (perhaps provided by them?), maybe plus e-mail.

Exactly - the term's quite loosely defined.

How do you know meetups all meetups attract "losers"? What is - to you - the defining characteristic of such "losers"? How certain are you that your personal experience with one kind of meetup generalizes well to all meetups? How do you know there are fewer or no losers elsewhere, e.g. on the internet?

-1[anonymous]
this was an unhelpful comment, removed and replaced by this comment
0Lumifer
You seem to have problems with the concept of "losers" in general :-/

This is a good place to post your poem.

Thank you for this post. I have made similar experiences, and feel much more dim-witted when speaking in person (especially compared to others).

0DataPacRat
My goal is for a relatively simple, even iconic, image or logo, which can be easily interpreted regardless of the viewer's language. The symbol for Phi - a circle with a line through it - provides fodder for as much interpretation as I desire, from the overlapped 1 and 0 of binary to an ouroborus to an axis-and-equator to the Golden Ratio - and if a minimal modification can explicitly add the "maximum value of the variable denoted by this symbol", I'll be a happy little rat indeed.

Just in case you're not aware, this is a double-comment. I've seen this with another comment of yours recently. Probably happens when one double-clicks the comment button.

0NancyLebovitz
What happened is that I had a couple of days of very erratic internet connection, so that it was hard to tell whether my efforts to post had worked out. My connection is good now.

You might want to post this on the hpmor subredit page instead - or in the latest open thread. I don't, however, think that a top-level discussion post is necessary for this.

In any case, Snape saying that the number of valence electrons of carbon is a meaningless fact is weak evidence that he didn't read it in Harry's mind.

0[anonymous]
Seems like it would be weak evidence in the other direction... if he thinks it's a useless fact, why does he have it memorized?
2Bound_up
Thank you. So, I posted this as a top-level discussion post? What I did is more the kind of thing I should reserve for more substantial posts? I understand the hpmor subredit, but what do you mean by the latest open thread? Just comment on a recent post in LessWrong discussion? Or forego so doing in favor of finding one specifically about HPMOR? Thanks again

There's also leakage by diffusion of gasses, which might be non-negligible due to the high pressure gradient, although the diffusion coefficient e.g. of water through steel should be low. Not sure how that works out.

Most vessels are spherical or cylindrical, which is already pretty good (intuitively, spherical vessels should be optimal for isotropic materials). You might want to take a look at the mechanics of thin-walled pressure vessels if you didn't already.

It's important to note that the radial stresses in cylindrical vessels are way smaller than the axial and hoop stresses (which, so to say, pull perpendicular to the "direction" of the pressure). This is also why wound fibers can increase the strength of such vessels.

Materials science undergraduate student here (not a mechanical engineer, my knowledge is limited in the area, I did not go to great lengths to ensure I'm right here, etc.).

A typical method to generate high pressures in research are diamond anvils. This is suitable for exploring the behavior of cells and microorganisms under high pressure.

For human preservation, however, you'd need a pressure vessel. As the yield strength of your typical steel is on the order of 100, maybe 300 MPa, you're really up against a wall here, materials-wise. I don't doubt that sui... (read more)

5maxikov
That's an interesting observation! When I was looking into this, I found several suppliers[1][2][3][4] that claim to produce pressure vessels, tubing, and pumps all the way up to 150'000 psi (1GPa). If 300MPa are already pushing the boundaries of steel, do you know what they could use to achieve such pressures?

Please insert some line-breaks at suitable points to make your comment be more readable. At the moment it's figuratively a wall of text.

Edit: Thank you.

If you make a joke on a day where jokes are made, but another person is not on the same day anymore, that person might not get the joke because they don't think the day matters.

I hate april fool's jokes across time zones. You don't expect them on April 2nd, do you?

3Vaniver
I don't know what this means :(

Although honestly, what kind of idiot had the idea to order the date mm/dd/yyyy?

3TobyBartels
This order (including the m/dd/yy abbreviation) was wisely chosen so that Super Pi Day would actually happen once a century. Without that reason, it's completely illogical, so there is no other possible explanation.
2Dreaded_Anomaly
That order is based on the increasing size of the sets of possible values, of course.
5solipsist
It was the only way to make peace between the little and big endians.
0[anonymous]
It was a compromise to end the war between the big endians and little endians.
5Manfred
It's from the most common spoken order. "March fourteenth, twenty-fifteen."

(paying a karma toll for this)

The username "Username" with password "password" can be used by anyone wishing to stay anonymous.

I think that only makes it worse. But thanks. You could say that anonymous criticism benefits both parties by enabling criticism without causing a social rift. But you could also say it removes any penalty for making criticism, which incentivizes strategic harassment. And trying to enforce social norms seems especially to me to be something that shouldn't be done anonymously--norms should be enforced by people with some standing, to avoid unstable norms; and a person speaking out for a true group norm should feel less need to be anonymous.

5gwern
He's not making up numbers. It's a pretty legitimate extrapolation of what the consequences would be if one could eliminate increasing mortality and maintain the mortality rates of young people. This is no more 'making up numbers' than is using e=mc^2 to point out the potential benefit of atomic energy. Still missing the point. Nothing about the observation 'hey, being 20 years old is pretty nice' or 'decay kicks in around 60, isn't that odd' implies 'eliminating increasing mortality would result in lifespans on the order of a millennia' unless one has already taken known annual mortality rates and worked through the probabilistic implication - the very working-through you're mocking as "making up numbers". (Certainly the average Guardian reader, or the 99th percentile Guardian reader for that matter, is not an expert on gerontology and will have never realized this, and needs it to be pointed out.) Cost-benefit. You keep talking about the costs and exact mechanistic models of aging, while ignoring the overall observation which gives an idea of the benefit. This is equally applicable to the aging, and why I chose it. 'You already have a good reason why the real upper limit on lifespan should be way higher than it appears to be, because some actual empirical mortality rates imply that we could live for a long time'. I don't understand how you can fail so badly at understanding the basic argument. The logic of the article is transparent and standard among coverage of futurism & speculative tech articles: 'here is a quick estimate of how valuable such an achievement could be which will be surprising to most readers who are not already experts on how aging works, here are people who think the achievement may be feasible, here's what they and others are working on and possible routes, and here's the summing up conclusion'. When you read the first paragraphs, what does it parse as, logically, in your mind? Can you write out a summary of the article, or does the whole

If you're reading a pdf with multiple pages, zooming out to show the entire page (or even displaying two pages at once if your display is wide enough) enables super-fast scrolling through the document. I have seen people not do this and it was painful to watch.

Also, some pdf readers (including adobe reader) have a "magnifying glass" feature, which achieves what you described without having to open the document a second time.

0wadavis
Oh god, the scrolling, the cumative man-hours I've wasted. How did I never see this before.

I meant, "in the comments of the new article". I'm sorry if that wasn't clear.

The goal was to get some discussion and new advice going, and that's difficult if you just link to the old repository, which means one more click on the way, one trivial inconvenience more.

I had thought about copying all the advice (or the good pieces only) over to the old repository once this one is obsolete, i.e. once the rerun repository for march is posted, and I might do this then, if I find the time.

Then he should give reasons why that's possible. As it is, it seems to me like he is simply ignoring the math behind ageing. The following would be a better argument, IMO:

The Gompertz law describes human mortality as it currently is. It says that human mortality over time increases more than exponentially. To defy the Gompertz law, bold steps are necessary. Constant maintenance via external drugs that do what our immune system currently does or re-setting our immune system to a younger age may be necessary, as well as keeping the length of our telomers c

... (read more)
6gwern
No, it wouldn't, because you are presupposing that one already understands why one would want to do such a difficult thing. The whole point of pointing out the implications of acceleration in mortality is to point out real mortality rates can imply very long lifespans and that squaring the curve would have major and desirable implications. Only once the potential benefits have been established does anyone care about how feasible fixing it would be. There are two blades to the idea of 'cost-benefit', and you are dismissing out of hand anyone even trying to roughly estimate the latter. To use your atom example: And someone else replying: Go back to the original article. Why are they discussing aging at all? To justify research like Calico into reducing it. Jeez. Talk about missing the point.

the probability of a 25-year-old dying before their 26th birthday is 0.1%. If we could keep that risk constant throughout life instead of it rising due to age-related disease, the average person would – statistically speaking – live 1,000 years.

That's just not how the relevant model works. Unless there's very good reason to believe we can overcome the limits set by this model, this calculation is like saying

the number of radioactive atoms decaying to stable atoms in this 1kg lump of nuclear waste in the first hour after its formation is . If we could

... (read more)
5[anonymous]
That's the entire point. The premise is, what if we were able to flat-line risk to be what a 25yo experiences rather than be a function of age.
8gwern
Yes, that's rather the point? He's pointing out the implications of the Gompertz curve: that increases in age-related risk account for almost all of why we live such short lives.

Fair point. Works differently for everyone, but at least one should reflect on the state of their desk once in a while.

I do not understand your need to post this comment anonymously.

1Good_Burning_Plastic
IIRC there's someone who has admitted to regularly using the Username accont just because they can't be bothered to make their own.

If you have internalized the concept of what a sharp edge is and if you are using said knive to cut things.

If, on the other hand, you are a child, no or a very dull knife is the best option.

0atorm
OK, fair point.

Memorizing disconnected bits of knowledge without understanding the material - that would be a case of overfitting.

That is exactly what most students do. Source: Am student, have watched others learn.

Keep your work desk productive.

De-clutter your work desk regularly, getting rid of things you don't actually use. This includes equipment, paper, plants and even furniture that's doing nothing. Put misplaced items back to their designated space. Designate spaces for supplies and references if you haven't already. Free nearby spaces which are cluttered with things you don't actually use. Put those things out of reach, fill the space with other things.

A good idea is to remove every single item on your desk and think about what you actually need. Repeat this monthly. Put everything back to its place at the end of the day. Repeat this daily. If you find that you need to fetch something daily, put it closer.

7Username
Agree. Disagree this follows. Works different for me. I'm with apocryphal Einstein, "If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind, of what, then, is an empty desk a sign?" If my desk is clear, it's a sure sign I am being real unproductive and procrastinating hard on something. When I am on a roll, the papers pile up. One place I worked had a clear desk policy. Desk had to be totally empty every night. I hated it. Got nothing done. Quit that gig to go work somewhere they cared more what I got done than how my desk looked. Other people vary!
4Gunnar_Zarncke
One approach is to split material on your table (and your inbox...) in three categories: * to be done (inbox) * waiting for input/response/time * for reference

Summary of best comments on the original repository

The best advice posted (best comments) in the original repository included (I blatantly pirate-copied it over from their various authors):

  • Avoid commuting, or failing that, commute effectively (i.e. by train or bicycle and not by car, so you can do some useful work or exercise).

  • Start your posts with a summary if it's more than 3-5 paragraphs. Use paragraphs.

  • Treat craigslist as a free storage. You don't need to physically own all the tools if you can pick them up for <(0.1 paychecks). Treat those th

... (read more)
4someonewrongonthenet
Ha. Depends on your goals. If you are Buzzfeed or otherwise a click-farmer it's "Make each web link seem like it leads to life-revolutionizing information, with only tangential regard as actual content". Or tab-exploders like TvTropes or even Lesswrong at times- "Give links obscure and cool words which just barely hint at something novel and unusual without revealing it, and include as many of them as possible per paragraph"

As in, "I need to have exactly this kind of mug. It will vastly improve the quality of my life!"

Don't hurry, looks like we'll have a re-run soon :).

0Gunnar_Zarncke
Yeah. I noticed :-)
2taryneast
Thanks, I'd read the boring advice, but hadn't seen the ergonomics one... some ideas on specific ideas would be good. I should also say that one of my recent large purchases was a standing desk, so I agree it's a good idea for an area to spend.

Some ideas of mine:

  • really bright lights
  • a cook book with healthy, easy, and quick recipes
  • some computer hardware, like a better keyboard or mouse, or a second computer screen
  • a few meditation lessons
  • good headphones (in terms of quality, not price)
  • some room decoration, e.g. plants
  • paying a delivery service instead of buying things yourself
  • an electric teeth brush (assuming you don't own one)

What about larger investments, i.e. $200-$500? If they lead to a proportionally better life, these might be worth considering as well.

2taryneast
thus point 5 above :) don't limit yourself to $100... it's an anchoring point for ideas that are probably in the affordable range (for me)

Should we have some sort of re-run for the various repositories we have? I mean, there is the Repository repository and it's great for looking things up if you know such a thing exists, but (i) not everyone knows this exists and more importantly, (ii) while these repositories are great for looking things up, I feel that not much content gets added to the repositories. For example, the last top-level comment to the boring advice repository was created in march 2014.

Since there's 12 repositories linked in the meta repository as of today, I suggest we spend e... (read more)

0mako yass
By "advice in the comments", you mean new entries to the repositories, right? So you're suggesting that we fragment the repository through a number of separate comment sections, labeled by year, and that is a really awful way of organizing a global repository of timeless articles. If you're worried about incumbents taking disproportionate precedence in the list(as more salient posts tend to get more attention; more votes; more salience), IIRC, reddits have a comment ordering that's designed to promote posts on merit rather than seniority. If that isn't sufficient to address incumbent bias then we should probably be talking about building a better one.
5[anonymous]
Why not a monthly post that links to all the respositories?, as a chance to add suggestions to them, and remind people that they're there. This could in fact be combined with a focus on a "specific' repository.

I'm just making a similar experience.

Definitely involves math (since you asked).

A valid reason would be the scarcity of resources. Further technological progress will be severely constrained by which chemical elements are available cheaply and which are not. Lots of interesting and useful chemical elements are not available in sufficiently concentrated ores, or they are rare in all of earth's crust, having sunken down inside earth's core during its formation.

These elements thusly are produced only as by-products of other elements which are more concentrated in their ores. This is valid not only for most of the lanthanides, but also fo... (read more)

I'm happy that you adressed this topic. It adresses a certain failure mode about instrumental rationality that may commonly cause high-status people to make poor decisions.

However, I don't think your narrative about human civilization, the birth of politics etc. is actually necessary for your conclusion. I think at best it's dubious as far as historical accuracy goes, and entertaining as a metaphor for the different layers for human interaction with each other and the environment.

The example with the persons' heads, I found much more helpful at understandi... (read more)

2the-citizen
Thanks for the useful suggestion. This appears to emerging as a consensus. I'll probably either tidy up the second section or cut it when I have time.

On the contrary, from my experience it isn't.

Sorry, I could not resist the opportunity. But seriously, I don't often see people disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing. More often, they'll point out different aspects, or their own perspective on a topic. To be honest, support and affirmation are perhaps a bit rarer than they should be, but I've rarely perceived disagreement to be hostile, as opposed to misunderstanding, or legitimate and resolvable via further discussion.

More datapoints, anyone?

3ChristianKl
If other people disagree with what I write they usually do it for the sake of disagreeing. However if I disagree... ;)

Edited. Thanks. I remember thinking about it, and noticing that it doesn't quite match.

I limit my daily internet usage with LeechBlock (for Firefox; compare StayFocus'd for Chrome). Until a few months ago, I had allowed myself to access all of the internet only from 8pm to 10pm. LessWrong, Wikipedia and similar sites are freely accessible. This has led to me always going to bed after 10pm, and often much later than that.

A few weeks ago, I shifted my "allowed internet time" to the morning hours, to 6-8AM. Then even further back, and now I wake up at 4:30 and may then browse the internet for an hour.

I now reliably get up at 4:30, and... (read more)

5Emily
(Minor English language note: "stand up" can't be used as a direct synonym for "get out of bed". Try "get up" instead. Hope you don't mind my pointing this out! Thought it might be helpful.)

I accidentally pressed enter and the form was sent away - half-filled.

This is stupid. I sent another form with only the second half of the survey filled out. Dividing line is the population question, which I incorrectly answered with Rot13(Ehffvn).

8A1987dM
You might want to rot13 that.

What could be learned by getting to know more of those numbers? What's the benefit of knowing them now over waiting, e.g., 100 years when computing power is cheaper and better algorithms might exist?

And what else could be done with the computing power?

Although you can indeed never know the outcome of research, I think we can estimate whether particular research is worthwhile.

Are there any benefits to knowing prime numbers so large they can't even be used in cryptography?

No?

Then I guess it's a bad idea.

1NancyLebovitz
You never know what's going to shake out from pure math. Still, hunting for extremely large primes might not be efficient, even by the standards of pure math.

We can safely reason that the typical human, even in the future, will choose existence over non-existence. We can also infer which environments they would like better, and so we can maximise our efforts to leave behind an earth (solar system, universe) that's worth living in, not an arid desert, neither a universe tiled in smiley faces.

While I agree that, since future people will never be concrete entities, like shadowy figures, we don't get to decide on their literary or music tastes, I think we should still try to make them exist in an environment worth ... (read more)

227chaos
My own moral intuitions say that there is an optimal number of human beings to live amongst X (perhaps around Dunbar's number, though maybe not if society or anonymity are important) and that we should try to balance between utilizing as much of the universe's energy as possible before heat death and maximizing these ideal groups of X size. I think a universe totally filled with humans would not be very good, it seems somewhat redundant to me since many of those humans would be extremely similar to each other but use up precious energy. I also think that individuals might feel meaningless in such a large crowd, unable to make an impact or strive for eudaimonia when surrounded by others. We might avoid that outcome by modifying our values about originality or human purpose, but those are values of mine I strongly don't want to have changed.

Excluding the concept of "leadership until you get killed".

In the 2x2 reduced game, Player One's strategy is 1/3 B, 2/3 C; Two's strategy is 2/3 X, 1/3 Y. In the complete game with trembling hands, Player Two's strategy remains unchanged, as you wrote in the starter of the linked thread, invoking proper equilibrium.

0Wei Dai
Later on in the linked thread, I realized that the proper equilibrium solution doesn't make sense. Think about it: why does Player 1 "tremble" so that C is exactly twice the probability of B? Other than pure coincidence, the only way that could happen is if some of the button presses of B and/or C are actually deliberate. Clearly Player 1 would never deliberately press B while A is still an option, so Player 1 must actually be playing a mixed strategy between A and C, while also accidentally pressing B and C with some small probability. But that implies Player 2 must be playing a mixed strategy that makes Player 1 indifferent between A and C, not between B and C.

Okay, I agree. But what do you think about the extensive-form game in the image below? Is the structure changed there?

0Wei Dai
The structure isn't changed there, but without the extra node, there is no subgame. That extra node is necessary in order to have a subgame, because only then can Player 2 think "the probabilities I'm facing is the result of Player 1's choice between just B and C" which allows them to solve that subgame independently of the rest of the game. Also, see this comment and its grandchild for why specifically, given possibility of accidental presses, I don't think Player 2's strategy in the overall game should be same as the equilibrium of the 2x2 "reduced game". In short, in the reduced game, Player 2 has to make Player 1 indifferent between B and C, but in the overall game with accidental presses, Player 2 has to make Player 1 indifferent between A and C.

As I wrote above, in the limit of large stacks, long pondering times, and decisions jointly made by large organizations, people do actually behave rationally. As an example: Bidding for oil drilling rights can be modelled as auctions with incomplete and imperfect information. Naïve bidding strategies fall prey to the winner's curse. Game theory can model these situations as Bayesian games and compute the emerging Bayesian Nash Equilibria.

Guess what? The companies actually bid the way game theory predicts!

0Lumifer
I still don't think so. To be a bit more precise, certainly people behave rationally sometimes and I will agree that things like long deliberations or joint decisions (given sufficient diversity of the deciding group) tend to increase the rationality. But I don't think that even in the limit assuming rationality is a "safe" or a "fine" assumption. Example: international politics. Another example: organized religions. I also think that in analyzing this issue there is the danger of constructing rational narratives post-factum via the claim of revealed preferences. Let's say entity A decides to do B. It's very tempting to say "Aha! It would be rational for A to decide to do B if A really wants X, therefore A wants X and behaves rationally". And certainly, that happens like that on a regular basis. However what also happens is that A really wants Y and decides to do B on non-rational grounds or just makes a mistake. In this case our analysis of A's rationality is false, but it's hard for us to detect that without knowing whether A really wants X or Y.
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