All of TreeFrog's Comments + Replies

I warn those of you with a Netflix account that Redbelt is one awful mess of a movie. Yes, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu instructor refuses to compete against the evil Brazilians, but it's not because prize fights are inherently different from grappling matches. It's for some sort of dedication to an ideal of honoring a Japanese-looking master that even he can't coherently articulate. Brazilian jiu-jitsu is built upon wrestling others - in class, in tournaments, in MMA fights and in real life.

It's one thing to have an arbitrary restriction; it's another to have... (read more)

4thomblake
Given the difficulty of determining whether someone's pregnant, and the large possibility of violence causing a miscarriage, and the long time it takes for a successful pregnancy, it seems like a pretty good heuristic. Almost as good as "do not hit anyone".

Word of warning: I have had a couple glasses of Firefly vodka mixed with lemonade. The everloving devil's brew, I tell you.

Yvain is most likely smarter than me and has the additional bonus of caring intensely about subjects I dabble in. However, he always delivers on the entertainment. That eardrop thing was ludicrously fun.

it seems to me that "a general strategy for approaching this sort of problem" has the same pitfalls as always trusting conventional wisdom over contrarian wisdom.

1Scott Alexander
I'm glad you find my articles entertaining, but I don't see how you can say a general strategy has certain pitfalls without knowing what the strategy is. Or do you think just trying to approach this problem from a rationalist perspective is a mistake?

Yes, I mean relative to the rest of the martial arts community.

"What would a rationality fan who didn't actually practice rationality look like?" Jim Cramer on the Daily Show? (I refer not to the verbal destruction, but Cramer's stated appreciation of Stewart's points without any subsequent change in his behavior.)

Well, the Cornhuskers had a big thing for the Option I offense for a very long time, and recruited talent specifically for it - despite the growing utility of more "modern" offenses. There was a huge hullabaloo about the switc... (read more)

Are you insane? Professional team sports are a bastion of epistemic viciousness. A surprising amount of professional athletes and coaches do not have a coherent grasp of why they are able to do what they do, are awful at evaluating themselves and recognize, yet dismiss, what they should do to get better. Case in point: Shaquille O'Neal, with his free throws and rejuvenation once he encountered the Phoenix medical staff.

Or any number of idiotic football coaches who refuse to implement strategies that Madden video games and real life show as valid, winning s... (read more)

5Sideways
I don't think I'm insane. But then, I would say that, wouldn't I? You've misread me to suit your preconceptions. I never said that there was no epistemic viciousness in professional team sports. What I said was that the particular problems that Russell describes aren't problems in pro sports. It's possible to learn from the pro sports model without adopting it in every particular. Of course not all football coaches rationally choose strategies; not all football coaches are competent, period. But unlike the dojos Russell describes, in pro sports that behavior in is understood as biased and unreasonable, not praised as respect for tradition. I agree that "pro sports" are a way of life for many people--this was phrased poorly in my original post. I should have said that membership in a team isn't a way of life for professional athletes. Fans generally stick with one team or another, but when you move from Chicago to Los Angeles, it's not a big deal if you stop following the Bulls and start following the Lakers. Anyway, the analogy breaks down here--what would a "rationality fan" who didn't actually practice rationality look like? You say the breadth of martial arts knowledge of your BJJ/MMA community is "unusual." I assume you meant relative to the rest of the martial arts community rather than the general population, which would be trivially obvious. Either way we agree that "continual testing against others" is the common denominator that keeps a dojo or a professional sports team effective.

Michael Vassar: I have no idea who you are, but I'll proceed on the assumption that the "job" you mention is one of representing Eliezer and/or the other OvercomingBias authors in some sort of business capacity.

I don't know Max on a personal level. We've talked a few times on his board and he might be dimly aware of my existence, but I make no claims as to what he will do if contacted by Eliezer or an agent of Eliezer's.

Serious discussions of potential OvercomingBias projects/movies and whatnot should be sent to Max's assistant, Ian Claudius - ian.claudius(AT)gmail.com. The Rudius people are smart and good content creators (multiple book contracts, one soon to be hit movie and stuff I actually like).

I know that Tucker Max, whose movie I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell will be out sometime this year, has read this site since July of 2007 at least. He's actually how I discovered Overcoming Bias.

He's said numerous times that Eliezer would be absolutely fantastic if his posts weren't so ridiculously long and wandering at times.

He'd be a good person to talk to about making a movie (since his own was designed specifically to avoid that "dumbing-down process") and is probably going to make several tens of millions over the next few years.

Any Kwisatz Haderach can totally do this with the Spice of Life and certain Fremen rituals...