Predicting AGI/ASI timelines is highly speculative and unviable. Ultimately, there are too many unknowns and complex variables at play. Any timeline must deal with systems and consequences multiple steps out, where tiny initial errors compound dramatically. A range can be somewhat reasonable, a more specific figure less so, and accurately predicting the consequences of the final event when it comes to pass even further improbable. It is simply impractical to come up with an accurate timeline with the knowledge we currently have.
Despite this, timelines are ...
If many independent actors are working on AI capabilities, even if each team has decent safety intentions within their own project, is there a fundamental coordination problem that makes the overall landscape unsafe? A case where the sum of the whole is flawed, unsafe, and/or dangerous and thus doesn't equal collective safety?
I think people seem to downplay that when artificial intelligence companies release new models/features, they tend to do so with minimal guardrails.
I don't think it is hyperbole to suggest this is done for the PR boost gained by spurring online discussion, though it could also just be part of the churn and rush to appear on top where sound guardrails are not considered a necessity. Either way, models tend to become less controversial and more presentable over time.
Recently OpenAI released their GPT-4o image generation with rather relaxed guardrails (it bei...
I went along to the VRChat meetup. Was absolutely wonderful to meet people, chat rational, discuss HPMoR, and generally nerd out for a while.
Thanks very much to everyone who organised events and helped with coordination!
Speaking as a fellow Declan, I'm wondering if an unhealthy love for peanut butter is a "Declan-thing"...
Really appreciate the pointers. I spend a lot of time lurking here but not much time posting. I'll definitely keep all your suggestions in mind next time I post. Cheers!
if people had been playing with carbon fiber hair historically I really doubt horsehair would take off today.
I do oft wonder how many things we interact with are only the way they are because that's the way they've always been. Tangentially, how much of the world is just vestigial and nobody has thought to question it?
Personally, I've had my Caps Lock key bound to Escape for quite a while (I'd suggest a few years now?). It has been lovely and fits perfectly with my keyboard-driven workflow. Pairs great with Colemak-DH, which is my layout of choice.
I haven't found myself ever missing the Caps Lock key's original functionality, and my blank laptop keycaps mean I can have it bound without mental annoyance.
The cost and time will gradually deter you and inherently create a scarcity mindset, sabotaging your creativity and playfulness and willingness to go "wouldn't it be fun if...?".
You caught something here with my own thinking. I have limitations associated with my own static site generator that acts as a simple barrier of just enough strength to deter my will and likely hinder output. I hadn't really concidered or thought of it at detail.
It isn't financial, but it is a time/mental tax I must pay to create, which should be eliminated. I'll aim to mentally emphasise it's credence as an issue requiring a solution.
Thanks for prompting the thought.
A great collection of posts there. Plenty of useful stuff.
This prompted me to write down and keep track of my own usage:
https://vale.rocks/posts/ai-usage